New York Times, August 27, 1996
"
U.S. Wary of Punishing China for Missile Help to
Pakistan
"
By STEVEN ERLANGER
WASHINGTON -- While the Clinton administration has not
formally declared that China is secretly helping Pakistan build a
factory to produce medium-range missiles, in violation of its
promises to
Washington, senior officials are already trying to figure out
what to do
about it.
The factory is the latest of several weapons control disputes to
arise with
China in recent years and American law could require the
imposition of
economic sanctions. But senior officials have no appetite for
another
confrontation with China, especially in an election year in which
Sino-American relations have already been a big headache.
"This has been in the category of too hot to touch unless it
jumps up to
bite you," one senior official said. "Decision-makers
have a way of saying,
'This isn't ready for a decision yet,' and that has clearly
frustrated some
people in intelligence," he said, who believe the evidence
is there and
want to press for a response.
Officials believe the factory, being built by the Pakistanis in a
suburb of
Rawalpindi, with Chinese help, will produce a version of the
Chinese
M-11 medium range missile, which is capable of carrying nuclear
warheads up to 200 miles. But they are still debating whether the
factory
is indeed designed to produce complete missiles, or only parts,
and how
deep the Chinese role has been. Pakistan denies that it is
constructing a
medium-range missile factory.
Another issue, which has been publicly debated for months, is the
reported shipment by China to Pakistan of M-11 missiles
themselves,
between 1990 and 1994. The Clinton administration officially says
it does
not know for sure that the missiles were delivered and are in
crates at
Pakistan's Sargodha Air Force Base, near Lahore.
But a recent National Intelligence Estimate, the agreed judgment
of the
governments intelligence services, concludes that the missiles
are probably
there in crates and could be launched within 48 hours, a senior
administration official said. The estimate says there is not
enough evidence
to decide if those missiles are fitted with nuclear warheads, as
the
Pakistanis would clearly like to be able to do in time, the
official said.
Both China and Pakistan deny that a transfer of missiles has
occurred.
American officials are eager to manage relations with China
carefully in a
year that has already seen sharp confrontations over trade
policy, the
spread of nuclear weapons, Taiwan and its elections, human rights
and
the Chinese piracy of copyrighted videotapes, software and
compact
disks. In a coordinated effort, the State Department, Treasury
Department and White House have recently tried to keep relations
with
China on a less strident, more even level, with a series of
high-level
meetings planned that are expected to lead to a summit meeting
after the
American election.
So American officials are likely to want to settle any dispute
over missiles
through negotiation if possible, rather than imposing sanctions
as the law
would require. American officials also recognize that China
regards India
as a regional rival. If China helps Pakistan secure medium-range
missiles
they would balance missiles that India, a larger and more
advanced
country, has already developed for itself. Both Pakistan and
India are
unacknowledged nuclear powers, but India has tested the Prithvi
missile,
which for now is believed to be designed for a conventional
warhead.
Both the provision by China of M-11s to Pakistan and help to
Pakistan to
make more of them stem from contracts dating from the late 1980s,
senior officials say. But both violate a 1990 American law
designed to
discourage the spread of missiles and missile technology. The
technology
transfer involved in the factory also violates the Missile
Technology
Control Regime, an international agreement that China has
promised
Washington to obey even though it is not a signatory.
The regime does not absolutely ban in every case the exports of
medium-range missiles like the M-11, but China promised
Washington in
October 1994, when it settled another case for which sanctions
had been
imposed. The regime does prohibit the transfer of production
facilities for
such missiles.
If the U.S. government formally declares that China has in fact
shipped
M-11s to Pakistan or is helping Pakistan construct a factory to
build
them, under the 1990 law, the United States must deny export
licenses
for military and dual-use items to the entities involved from
both Pakistan
and China, and also deny them American contracts.
Under an amendment to the law, in the case of a
"non-market" or
Communist country like China, they are also subject to a denial
of export
licenses to the whole state sector involved, in this case, the
broad area of
aerospace and electronics industries.
While such a sanction would not cover toasters, it would damage
China's
satellite-launching industry, for example, and other endeavors
that require
American products not easily bought from other countries, the way
China
has recently chosen to buy European-made Airbus civilian aircraft
rather
than American Boeings.
"It is possible to put off a decision for a while," a
senior official said, "but
not to avoid them. It's a legal matter."