New York Times, August 27, 1996
Concern Over China's Tilt Toward
Pakistan
By PATRICK E. TYLER
BEIJING -- The new evidence that China may be aiding a ballistic
missile factory in Pakistan reflects Beijing's determination to
thwart
India's domination in the region by promoting a nuclear balance
of power,
as well as its defiance of American efforts to limit Chinese
influence in
Asia.
If American intelligence agencies prove Chinese involvement in
the
manufacture of medium-range missiles outside the Pakistan
capital, it will
indicate that Beijing is stepping up its transfer of advanced
military
technology to Pakistan despite numerous public pledges to limit
the
spread of weapons of mass destruction.
It may also trigger a new round of economic sanctions against
China,
something the Clinton administration has been seeking to avoid
since the
last sanctions relating to Chinese missile component sales to
Pakistan
were lifted in late 1994.
Under American law, sanctions are mandatory if the president
determines
that China has violated the Missile Technology Control Regime, an
accord the Chinese never signed although in 1991 they agreed to
abide
by its limits. The regime forbids the transfer of technology that
would
enable a third country to build a ground-to-ground missile
capable of
carrying 1,100 pound warheads for a distance of 185 miles. The
missiles
in question are the Chinese M-11, capable of carrying a nuclear
warhead
just over 185 miles.
The discovery of a new Pakistan missile factory and apparent
Chinese
connection to it comes at a time of great uncertainty in Asia
about
Beijing's intentions as an emerging power and about America's
role in
Asia.
Though both India and Pakistan are coy about their intentions,
there are
many signs they are stepping up their nuclear arms race. Earlier
this month
in New Dehli, Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda announced that India
will press ahead with its program to develop the medium range
Prithvi
ballistic missile and the inter-continental range Agni missile,
both of which
could be fitted with nuclear warheads.
Earlier this month, India effectively scuttled a global treaty to
ban testing
of nuclear weapons, leaving little doubt about its own
intentions. India
exploded a nuclear device in 1974 and, like Pakistan, is believed
to have
further developed a nuclear weapons capability in secret. China
is
believed to have assisted Pakistan by providing the design of a
Chinese
warhead from China's fourth nuclear test in 1967. Indian
officials also
believe that China has conducted at least one test of a Pakistani
warhead
at the Lop Nor test range in western China.
The Chinese think the Indians already have a nuclear weapon that
can be
delivered by a missile system, an Asian diplomat here said
Monday. If the
Indians are racing ahead in certain technologies, then Pakistan
reaches out
to its big brother for help, he added, referring to China.
Though the Chinese may justify their assistance by saying they
are
interested in maintaining parity between India and Pakistan, it
is
unavoidable that they will also fuel an arms race, the diplomat
added.
A prime reason why a nuclear arms race continues, diplomats say,
is that
leaders in Islamabad and New Dehli live in a state of uncertainty
about
what the other side has in its nuclear basement. As a result,
neither side is
willing to stop building missiles and tinkering with warhead
designs as a
hedge against surprises and as a deterrent against attack.
"Who is going to guarantee our security if we ourselves do
not?" asked an
Indian diplomat based here. Indian security experts say they have
a long
term fear, too, of being bullied by China, with its nuclear
arsenal.
China's willingness to risk a new confrontation with the United
States over
assistance to Pakistan appears to be based on a strong
determination by
China's military leaders to create a strategic balance on China's
western
flank, one that keeps India in check even as Beijing and New
Dehli
pursue greater cooperation in the region and step up trade and
commerce
across their borders.
China's assertiveness also reflects a stronger influence by the
Chinese
Army during the political transition now underway after nearly
two
decades of dominance by Deng Xiaoping, China's paramount leader.
In
the new era of rule by a younger generation of civilian
technocrats, the
stalwarts of the Chinese military are gaining ground.
A new study by the Rand Corp. for Defense Secretary William J.
Perry
strongly suggests that president Jiang Zemin may not be able to
control a
more assertive Chinese military, especially when civilian leaders
are
unable to reach a consensus on foreign policy and national
security issues.
The absence of a single dominant leader with the authority of
Deng
Xiaoping suggests that the military's challenges to critical
elements of
China's foreign policy will probably increase, said Michael D.
Swiane, a
senior analyst at Rand.
China's relationship with Pakistan has long been the province of
the
Chinese military, a number of experts say.
"I don't think most people realize that China and Pakistan
are strategic
allies," said Eden Y. Woon, a former Pentagon specialist on
China now
living in Seattle. They are as close as the United States is to
Britain, he
said, and while China is trying hard to improve its relations
with India, it
always remembers that it once went to war with India.
But there are other important factors, Woon added.
One is a strong nationalistic current in the military that
opposes the effort
by the United States and the other signatories to the Missile
Technology
Control Regime to limit China's sale of weapons and technology.
The
10-year-old agreement was signed by 30 countries but not China,
though
under American pressure China said in in 1991 that it would abide
by it.
Some Chinese leaders see the missile regime as an effort by the
Americans to tell them what to do, Woon said, and they bristle at
this,
especially at a time when the United States has increased its
sales of
advanced weapons to Taiwan, including F-16 fighters. These sales,
Beijing asserts, represent a proliferation of American weapons
into
Chinese territory that are destabilizing Beijing's efforts to
negotiate
reunification between mainland China and Taiwan.
Chinese leaders must also take into account the financial
interests of
defense industries that earn hard currency from military
equipment sales to
Pakistan's armed forces.
Someone in the defense industry is making money from these sales,
said
Woon, and that is another source of revenue to the Chinese
government.