ACCESSION NUMBER:00000
FILE ID:96031301.POL
DATE:03/13/96
TITLE:13-03-96  STUDY NOTES DANGER OF VULNERABLE RUSSIAN NUCLEAR ARSENAL

TEXT:
(Lugar, Nunn urge priority U.S. attention to threat) (750)
By Ralph Dannheisser
USIA Staff Writer

Washington -- Loosely controlled Russian nuclear weapons and materials
that could end up in the hands of rogue states or terrorist groups
pose by far the greatest threat to U.S. security today.

That is the thrust of a new study conducted by Harvard University's
Center for Science and International Affairs and backed by two senior
U.S. senators -- Democrat Sam Nunn and Republican Richard Lugar -- who
urge stepped-up attention to the issue by both the government and the
public.

"Most of the American public is still in denial about the whole
situation," Lugar declared at a March 13 press briefing at which he
and Nunn, along with Graham Allison, director of the Harvard center
and a co-author of the study, discussed its findings.

Nunn and Lugar are co-authors of the 1991 Cooperative Threat Reduction
Act, which is designed to provide financial assistance to accelerate
the collection and dismantlement of nuclear weapons in the former
Soviet Union. The United States spends about $800 million each year
under the Nunn-Lugar program to secure nuclear material facilities in
Russia and to implement accounting and security procedures at Russian
nuclear storage sites.

The Harvard study, "Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy," concludes that --
contrary to conventional wisdom -- the nuclear threat has not
disappeared with the end of the Cold War. While the risk of general
nuclear war has declined, the authors say, the likelihood of nuclear
explosions being triggered has actually increased.

Under the new circumstances, the delivery system is far more likely to
be a suitcase than a missile, Allison observed at the briefing at the
National Press Club.

Contributing to the burgeoning crisis, he indicated, is the ongoing
collapse of all central control systems in Russia and other former
Soviet republics that leaves nuclear materials exposed and vulnerable
to theft and loss, compounded by hard economic times and a ready
market for nuclear weapons materials.

For the first time, Nunn told reporters, there are "people who have
access (to the nuclear stocks) who are also willing to do the
unthinkable."

Allison pointed out that the risk of theft is not just theoretical: at
least half a dozen cases are already documented. And, against this
background, he noted that 100,000 nuclear weapons and weapons-usable
equivalents remain scattered, only lightly protected, all over Russia
and elsewhere in the former Soviet Union.

The study's authors recommend that the president and Congress make the
matter of loose nuclear weapons the top priority for America's
security agenda and that this priority be "demonstrated in time,
initiative and money expended by the U.S. government and our key
allies."

Beyond that, they say, American policy must be aimed at making the
issue a top priority for Russian leaders as well.

As part of the solution, Allison and his colleagues urge that the
United States and its major allies buy the nuclear material and take
it out of Russia "beyond the reach of increasing chaos." An
arrangement to carry out such an effort negotiated by former President
Bush "needs to be extracted from bureaucratic bogs on both sides and
implemented on a 'beyond business as usual' fast track," they argue.

Asked about the prospects of getting the necessary spending
legislation through Congress, Lugar acknowledged "there is skepticism
about spending any money in Russia." But, he stressed, the nuclear
control program contemplated "is not foreign aid." Rather, he said,
"our national security is at stake."

Nunn and Lugar declined to specify how much spending might be needed.
But Nunn observed that "90 percent of the action has to happen in
Russia and other countries."

Lugar did note that the United States has spent some $800 million on
disposing of its own nuclear residues.

Nunn prepared to push the issue further later March 13 at a hearing
called by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, of
which he is senior minority member.

In testimony prepared for delivery at that hearing, Allison said the
need for quick action is patently clear. "This year, or next year, or
the year after, when Americans find ourselves victim of a nuclear
terrorist incident, how will we account for our behavior?" he asked.
"On the morning after, what account will we give of our failure to
mobilize the level of attention, money, energy and imagination the
American public will demand?"
NNNN

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