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[Index]

 NOTES

Chapter 1

1 Craig Whitney, "Gorbachev Predicts an Accord on Budget," N.Y. TIMES, Jan. 4, 1991, p. A6.

2 Andrei Orlov, "Soviet Parliament Discusses Federal Budget," TASS, January 11, 1991.

3 Andrew Katell, "Yeltsin Calls for Ligachev's Resignation," Associated Press, May 30, 1988.

4 BORIS YELTSIN, THE STRUGGLE FOR RUSSIA (New York: Random House, 1994), p. 36.

5 In January 1990, to check the growing nationalist movement in Azerbaijan, Gorbachev sent a large contingent of Soviet troops to Baku. The Soviet Army killed 134 people and wounded more than 600. Today, the people of Azerbaijan remember this as "Black January."

6 In Tbilisi, on April 10, 1989, Soviet troops killed 20 Georgians, and injured more than 200, as they attempted to disperse thousands of nationalist demonstrators. These events are remembered today in Georgia as the "Tbilisi Massacre."

7 DAVID REMNICK, LENIN'S TOMB (New York: Vintage, 1994), p. 388.

8 Id. at p. 389. Remnick reported that word of Bloody Sunday got back to Moscow not via the primary Moscow media outlets, but through Radio Liberty and the BBC. See also Cathy Young, "Soviet Democrats Aren't Backing Down," NEWSDAY, Feb. 5, 1991, p. 37.

9 JUDY SHELTON, THE COMING SOVIET COLLAPSE (New York: Free Press, 1989).

10 See Sergei Roy, "The Economics of Suicide," MOSCOW NEWS, Sept. 22, 1999, p. 36.

11 Associated Press, Feb. 9, 1991.

12 Id.

13 John-Thor Dahlburg, "West is also Likely to Ignore Lithuania Vote," L.A. TIMES, Feb. 11, 1991, p. A4.

14 Chairman of the Council of Nationalities of the U.S.S.R. Supreme Soviet Rafik Nishanov explained the referendum this way in an interview a few days before the vote: "The main purpose of the forthcoming Referendum is to give every Soviet man and woman a chance to express his attitude to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, to say 'yes' or 'no' to our new homeland--the renovated federation of equal sovereign republics, where the rights and freedoms of all nationalities will be fully guaranteed." Official Kremlin International News Broadcast/PRAVDA, Mar. 13, 1991, via Federal Information Systems Corp./NEXIS.

15 Esther B. Fein, "Russians' Big Worry: New Sales Tax," N.Y. TIMES, Mar. 18, 1991, p. A10.

16 Id.

17 Associated Press, Apr. 29, 1991.

18 Elizabeth Shogren, "Soviet Georgia Declares its Independence," L.A. TIMES, Apr. 10, 1991, p. A8.

19 Id.

20 Id. See also "Statement by Georgian Commission on Deaths in Tbilisi Rally," in which the commission concluded that the massacre "was a punitive operation amounting to well organized slaughter of innocent people. It was carried out with particular brutality and involved the use of banned chemicals. It bore the hallmarks of an international crime and, specifically, of a crime against humanity."

21 Elizabeth Shogren, "Soviet Georgia Declares its Independence," L.A. TIMES, Apr. 10, 1991, p. A8. A year earlier, on April 3, 1990, Gorbachev had nullified Article 72 of the 1977 "Brezhnev" constitution, which purported to grant the republics the right freely to secede from the Soviet Union. See text of 2,700-word law in PRAVDA, Apr. 7, 1990; see Brian Crozier, "Soviet constitution," Letter to the Editor, THE TIMES (LONDON), Mar. 15, 1993. Instead, Gorbachev set out an impossibly bureaucratic procedure for secession--a process so tortuous it was never commenced by any of the seceding republics except Armenia.

22 Francis X. Clines, "Ukrainians Declare Republic Sovereign Inside Soviet System," N.Y. TIMES, July 17, 1990, p. A1.

23 Serge Schmemann, "Gorbachev Agrees, Sort of, to Negotiate the State of the Union," N.Y. TIMES, Apr. 28, 1991, p. A6.

24 "The Soviet Economy on the Brink," ECONOMIST, Mar. 16, 1991, p. 72.

25 Id.

26 Patricia Lee Dorff, ed., "Chronology 1991: The Soviet Union and Eastern Europe," FOREIGN AFFAIRS, 1991/1992 AMERICA AND THE WORLD.

27 Stephen Sestanovich, "Fiddler on the Roof: Gorbachev's Balancing Act," NEW REPUBLIC, May 27, 1991, p.19.

28 Thom Shanker, "Soviets to Send Some Supplies to Lithuania," CHI. TRIB., June 14, 1990, p. A1.

29 Ann Imse, "Gorbachev Proposes Union of Sovereign States," Associated Press, June 13, 1990.

30 IZVESTIYA, Aug. 13, 1990.

31 Editorial, "Baltic Breakthrough," ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER, June 14, 1990, p. B10.

32 Alison Mitchell, "Yeltsin's Sweeping Victory; City Voters Stick it to 'Leningrad,'" NEWSDAY, June 14, 1991, p. 7.

33 Thom Shanker, "Old Russian City Switches Heroes and Its Name," CHI. TRIB., June 14, 1991, p. 24.

34 Patricia Lee Dorff, ed., "Chronology 1991: The Soviet Union and Eastern Europe," FOREIGN AFFAIRS, 1991/1992 AMERICA AND THE WORLD.

35 Carey Goldberg, "Soviet Officials Accused of Capitalizing on Bargain Country Homes," L.A. TIMES, July 15, 1991, p. 4.

36 Id.

37 Amy Borrus and Rose Brady, "The Soviets are Looking to Swap Reforms for Aid. Again," BUS. WEEK, June 3, 1991, p. 30.

38 John Lloyd and Lionel Barber, "The Moscow Summit: Bush Stresses need to Unleash Business Spirit," FINANCIAL TIMES (London), July 31, 1991, p. I3.

39 Id.

40 IZVESTIYA, July 11, 1991 (BBC translation).

41 Id.

42 See infra Chapter 3.

43 Andrew Rosenthal, "The Soviet Crisis, Bush Gamble: Coup Can Be Reversed," N.Y. TIMES, Aug. 21, 1991, p. A11.

44 MIKHAIL GORBACHEV, MEMOIRS (New York: Doubleday, 1995), p. 656.

45 Of course, such a step would also make the post of union president obsolete, completing the political destruction of Gorbachev.

46 Alison Mitchell, "Yeltsin Abandons Union: Russian leader proposes commonwealth, undercuts Gorbachev," N.Y. TIMES, Dec. 8, 1991, p. A7.

47 The Commonwealth of Independent States was created by the leaders of the three Slavic Republics (President Boris Yeltsin, Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk, and Byelorussian Parliamentary Speaker Stanislav Shuskevitch) in Viskuoi, a hunting lodge near the Polish-Belarus border. The joint communiqué committed the leaders to "unified control over the Soviet Union's 27,000 nuclear warheads."

48 The Intelligence Community, and particularly the CIA, have been unfairly criticized for allegedly failing to predict the fall of the Soviet Empire and the rise of Russia. In fact, a 1985 National Intelligence Estimate stated:

The U.S.S.R. is afflicted with a complex of domestic maladies that seriously worsened in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Their alleviation is one of the most significant and difficult challenges facing the Gorbachev regime. ...

Over the next five years, and for the foreseeable future, the troubles of the society will not present a challenge to the system of political control that guarantees Kremlin rule, nor will they threaten the economy with collapse. But, during the rest of the 1980s and well beyond, the domestic affairs of the U.S.S.R. will be dominated by the efforts of the regime to grapple with these manifold problems. ...

The underlying cause of most of these problems is the repressive nature of a political system that discourages initiative throughout the society on which economic and social progress depend, and that limits the private freedom Soviet citizens desire. ...

Gorbachev has achieved an upswing in the mood of the Soviet elite and populace. But the prospects for his strategy over the next five years are mixed at best. ...

Bruce D. Berkowitz and Jeffrey T. Richelson, "The CIA Vindicated: The Soviet Collapse was Predicted," NAT'L INTEREST, Fall 1995. As the collapse approached, the CIA assessment became so grave that in September 1989 the Bush administration appointed a secret contingency planning group chaired by director of Soviet Affairs Condoleezza Rice to deal with the failure of Gorbachev's government. Cf. Vice President Al Gore's reaction to intelligence data, Chapter 6, infra.

49 President Reagan always considered the triumph of freedom to be inevitable:

I have discussed on other occasions the elements of Western policies toward the Soviet Union to safeguard our interests and protect the peace. What I am describing now is a plea and a hope for the long term--the march of freedom and democracy which will leave Marxism-Leninism on the ash heap of history as it has left other tyrannies which stifle the freedom and muzzle the self-expression of the people.

Address to the Members of Parliament, London, June 8, 1982.

In a speech that today reads as prophetic, President Reagan also emphasized the economic problems faced by the Soviet Union and what he viewed as a mission "to preserve freedom as well as peace."

50 See, e.g., Strobe Talbott, "Rethinking The Red Menace," TIME, Jan. 1, 1990, p.66 ("The doves in the Great Debate of the past 40 years were right all along"); Talbott, "Brezhnev's Legacy," TIME, Nov. 22, 1982, p. 31. In the same article Talbott derided at length a whole succession of American administrations of both parties for attempting to influence the composition and attitudes of the leadership in Moscow--an ironic criticism in light of Talbott's unprecedented involvement in Russian internal politics during the Clinton administration.

 

Chapter 2

1 Within the flourishing Soviet black market, American-made jeans, cigarettes, and other Western products commanded the highest prices on the streets of Moscow and other Soviet cities. By the end of the 1980s, the Soviet Union was quietly--and illegally--undergoing a consumer revolution as the demand for and acquisition of Western products became widespread.

2 The widespread need to commit "economic crimes"--offenses that would not be crimes in a market economy--had the unfortunate effect of diminishing respect for the rule of legitimate law even after Russia abandoned Communism.

3 NICOLAI N. PETRO, RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY (New York: Longman, 1997) p. 131.

4 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Transition Report Update, p. 75.

5 In fact, the use of the ruble by several of the new nations of the former Soviet Union left Russia with little practical control over its money supply. It was not until November 1992 that Ukraine introduced its own currency. Other nations followed suit over the next few months, but the damage was done.

6 YEGOR GAIDAR, DAYS OF DEFEAT AND VICTORY (Seattle: Univ. Wash. Press, 1999).

7 ROSE BRADY, KAPITALIZM (New Haven: Yale Univ. Press, 1999), pp. 29-30, 36-37.

8 In January 1991, the Russian Supreme Soviet proposed a question on a national referendum for a directly elected presidency. In March, Russians voted for constitutional reform, and on April 24 the Russian Supreme Soviet approved a new law on the Presidency. Yeltsin was subsequently elected President.

9 Mary Dejevsky, "Yeltsin Gets Free Hand for Reforms," THE TIMES (London), Nov. 2, 1991. Yeltsin was given additional power to appoint governors in the oblasts and issue decrees that could override existing laws and reorganize the government without going through parliament.

10 See Thomas Ginsberg, "New Russian Prime Minister Will Soften Reforms," Associated Press, Dec. 14, 1992; WHO'S WHO IN RUSSIA AND THE CIS REPUBLICS, Vladimir Morozov, ed. (New York: Henry Holt and Co., 1995), p. 54. The centrist Civic Union faction, composed of Arkadii Volsky's Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Vice President Alexander Rutskoi's People's Party of Free Russia, and Nikolai Travkin's Democratic Party of Russia, played a key role in Chernomyrdin's appointment.

11 BORIS YELTSIN, THE STRUGGLE FOR RUSSIA, Catherine A. Fitzpatrick, trans. (New York: Times Books, 1994), pp. 197-201. "Gaidar had no chance of being approved by the Congress, so, given the reality of the situation, I settled on Viktor Chernomyrdin. Once again, he seemed to be a compromise figure ... I was dictated--let's face it--by regrettable necessity." Id. at 200.

12 See infra, Chapter 5.

13 See Thomas Ginsberg, "New Russian Prime Minister Will Soften Reforms," Associated Press, December 14, 1992; WHO'S WHO IN RUSSIA AND THE CIS REPUBLICS, Vladimir Morozov, ed. (New York: Henry Holt and Co., 1995.), p. 54; APS Review Oil Market Trends, "From Privatisation to Restructuring the Petroleum Sector to Gazprom," Aug. 7, 2000 (available on NEXIS).

14 Id.

15 Karen LaFollette, "Soft Assistance for Russian Hard Reform," The Institute for Political Economy, 1993.

16 Alexander Rahr, "The First Year of Russian Independence," RFE/RL Research Report, Jan. 1, 1993, p. 54.

17 HUMAN RIGHTS COUNTRY PRACTICES (Washington, DC: Department of State, Jan. 1993), p. 884.

18 FREEDOM IN THE WORLD--1992-1993 (New York: Freedom House, 1993), p. 428.

19 HUMAN RIGHTS COUNTRY PRACTICES, pp. 889, 890.

20 Id., p. 888.

21 FREEDOM IN THE WORLD--1992-1993, p. 428.

22 HUMAN RIGHTS COUNTRY PRACTICES, p. 885.

23 FREEDOM IN THE WORLD--1992-1993, p. 428. Ironically, the fact that the Russian Federation permits complete freedom of emigration has never been recognized in U.S. law. The 1974 Jackson-Vanik amendment, which imposed special scrutiny on Soviet emigration policy, still applies to Russia.

24 Rahr, Id., p. 51.

25 Testimony of Boris Fyodorov, Joint Meeting of the Speaker's Advisory Group on Russia and the House Policy Committee, July 12, 2000. To prevent gaps in legal regulation during the transition period, Russia relies on Soviet-era legislation. Soviet laws and regulations are applicable when Russian domestic law is silent and Soviet law does not conflict with other existing Russian law. These Soviet acts are considered transitional and are in force only until the Russian Parliament enacts replacement legislation. The application of Soviet legislation on Russian territory is governed by the 1990 Law on the Application of Acts and Organs of the U.S.S.R. on the Territory of the R.S.F.S.R. (Russian Soviet Federal Socialist Republic) and the Supreme Soviet's decree ratifying the Agreement on the Creation of the Commonwealth of Independent States. According to these enactments, Soviet laws apply only if they do not contradict the legislative acts of the Russian Federation adopted after June 12, 1990, when Russia proclaimed its independence. The 1993 Constitution adopted the same approach. In the area of land use alone, several Soviet-era laws are partially or fully enforced.

26 James Billington's works on Russia include: THE FACE OF RUSSIA: ANGUISH, ASPIRATION, AND ACHIEVEMENT IN RUSSIAN CULTURE (1998); RUSSIA TRANSFORMED: BREAKTHROUGH TO HOPE: MOSCOW, AUGUST 1991 (1992); and THE ICON AND THE AXE: AN INTERPRETIVE HISTORY OF RUSSIA (1970).

27 James Billington, Remarks to the Speaker's Advisory Group on Russia in Executive Session, June 14, 2000.

28 See, e.g., Larry Rickman, "Russia Plans to Remove Remaining Price Subsidies," Associated Press, Feb. 27, 1992; Howard Witt, "New Face of Russia: A Year after Coup, Ordinary Citizens Adapt to Change," CHI. TRIB., Aug. 16, 1992, p. C1.

29 For example, in the poll reported in Itar-TASS News Digest, July 24, 1992, good relations with the United States. were second only to Russian ties with other countries of the former U.S.S.R., where some 25 million ethnic Russians resided.

30 "'Santa Barbara' Receives Rave Reviews in Russia," PR Newswire, Feb. 21, 1992.

31 "Moscow Days and Nights; Clash of Cultures," MACLEAN'S, Feb. 15, 1993, p. 28.

32 See, e.g., DAVID REMNICK, RESURRECTION: THE STRUGGLE FOR A NEW RUSSIA (New York: Random House, 1997), pp. 44-45.

33 "Summit at the U.N.; Excerpts from Speeches by Leaders of Permanent Members of U.N. Council," N.Y. TIMES, Feb. 1, 1992, p. A5.

34 Although President Bush signed the START II treaty less than one month before the inauguration of President-elect Clinton, Gov. Clinton was fully briefed on the agreement and "encouraged" the Bush administration to sign the treaty. Gov. Clinton also said that he was "fully supportive" of efforts to sign the agreement before he entered office. See Elaine Sciolino, "U.S. and Russia Agree on Atomic Arms Pact Slashing Arsenals and the Risk of Attack," N.Y. TIMES, Dec. 30, 1992, p. A1. President Clinton's efforts to reach arms control agreements lacking such broad bipartisan support before he leaves office are described in Chapter 10 infra.

35 Serge Schmemann, "Summit in Moscow," N.Y. TIMES, Jan. 4, 1993, p. A1.

36 Michael Dobbs and Don Oberdorfer, "Yeltsin Appeals for American Aid," WASH. POST, June 18, 1992, p. A1.

37 "Russian Federation President Boris Yeltsin Addresses Joint Meeting of U.S. Congress," Federal News Service, June 17, 1992.

38 This important Russian-American initiative's promising beginnings, and the Clinton administration's subsequent unilateral decision to cancel it, are described in Chapter 10 infra.

39 "Russian Military Drastically Gearing Down," CNN, June 17, 1992.

40 Id.

41 See Stuart Goldman, "Russian Conventional Armed Forces: On the Verge of Collapse?," CRS Report for Congress, Sept. 4, 1997, p.11.

42 Roman Zadunayskiy, "Parliament Adopts Law on Defense," Itar-TASS, June 26, 1992.

43 Captain O. Odnokolenko, "Parliamentary Hearing on Draft Law on Defense," KRASNAYA ZVEZDA, May 14, 1992.

44 Guy Chazan, "Russian defense conversion program hits snags," UPI, Feb. 6, 1992.

45 Gennady Talalayev, "President Yeltsin Meets Managers of Defense Enterprises," Itar-TASS, May 13, 1992.

46 "Russian Defense Ministry to Sell Off Unwanted Military Property," Itar-TASS, Nov. 30, 1992.

47 S. Ostanin, "Russian Defense Collegium Discusses Military Procurement Problems," Itar-TASS, Aug. 1, 1992.

48 Vladlas Burbulis, "Russian Troop Withdrawal from Lithuania as Scheduled," Itar-TASS, Oct. 13, 1992. Western assistance, in particular a large German aid program, was launched to assist the repatriation of Russian troops.

49 Andrei Naryshkin, "Yeltsin Meets Top Military Brass," Itar-TASS, Nov. 23, 1992.

50 See infra Chapters 9-11.

51 U.S. Policy Towards Russia, Part I: Warnings and Dissent: Hearing Before the House Committee on International Relations, 106th Cong. (1999).

52 As the most prominent reformer of the time, Yegor Gaidar, himself acknowledged: "The initial response of Western political and financial elites toward Russian economic reform was very wary and cool. ... [A]s far as the reforms already begun were concerned, Western thought was that over the past few years there had already been a great deal of talk, and a dozen or so official programs, so how did they know that this wasn't just more of the same? Better to wait and see." DAYS OF DEFEAT AND VICTORY, pp. 141-42.

53 "Address to the Nation on Reducing United States and Soviet Nuclear Weapons," Bush Presidential Library online collection, http://www.bushlibrary.tamu.edu/papers/1991/91092704.html.

54 Freedom for Russia and Emerging Democracies and Open Markets Support Act of 1992, P.L. 102-511, Oct. 24, 1992.

55 U.S. Policy Towards Russia, Part I: Warnings and Dissent: Hearing Before the House Committee on International Relations, 106th Cong. (1999), p. 60.

56 The Clinton administration has not lived up to this example of bipartisanship and willingness to engage Congress. Notwithstanding the fact that this examination of U.S.-Russia policy was commissioned by the Speaker of the House of Representatives--the third-ranking constitutional officer--and performed by the Chairmen of five standing committees of the Congress, Strobe Talbott, the administration "coordinator" for Russia policy, has refused even to respond to invitations to discuss the policy informally with the House leadership. To his credit, Secretary of the Treasury Lawrence Summers did meet with the Speaker's Advisory Group.

57 Curt Tarnoff, "U.S. Assistance to the Soviet Union and Its Successor States 1991-1998: A History of Administration and Congressional Action," CRS Report for Congress, Apr. 16, 1999.

58 P.L. 102-511, Secs. 101, 102.

 

Chapter 3

1 See generally STÉPHANE CORTOIS, NICOLAS WERTH, JEAN-LOUIS PANNÉ, ANDRZEJ PACZKOWSKI, KAREL BARTOSEK, JEAN-LOUIS MARGOLIN, THE BLACK BOOK OF COMMUNISM, trans. Jonathan Murphy and Mark Kramer (Cambridge: Harvard Univ. Press, 1999), p. 4.

2 MICHAEL BERSTAN & MICHAEL RABUSHKA, FIXING RUSSIA'S BANKS: A PROPOSAL FOR GROWTH (Stanford: Hoover Institution Press, 1998), p. 7.

3 Nina L. Khrushcheva, "Cultural Contradicts of Post-Communism: Why Liberal Reforms Did Not Succeed in Russia," paper prepared for the Council on Foreign Relations, Working Group on Development, Trade and International Finance.

4 YEGOR GAIDAR, DAYS OF DEFEAT AND VICTORY (Seattle: Univ. Wash. Press, 1999), p. 273.

5 Merton J. Peck & Thomas J. Richardson, eds., WHAT IS TO BE DONE? PROPOSALS FOR THE SOVIET TRANSITION TO THE MARKET (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1991), p. 152.

6 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Transition Report 1999: Tens years of Transition, p. 110.

7 Letter Report from the General Accounting Office, 803-95, GAO-NSIAD-95-156. This is from an assessment of the Urban Institute's efforts to promote housing policy reform in Russia.

8 Id.

9 Paul H. Rubin, "Growing a Legal System in the Post-Communist Economies," CORNELL INTERNATIONAL LAW JOURNAL, Winter 1994.

10 "Built on Sand," THE ECONOMIST, June 3, 2000, p. 19.

11 Louis Uchitelle, "The Art of a Russian Deal: Ad-Libbing Contract Law," N.Y. TIMES, Jan. 17, 1992, p. A1.

12 Lyudmila Yermakova, "Market Economy Cannot Develop Without Court of Arbitration," Itar-TASS, Dec. 29, 1992.

13 John I. Huhs and Ramaz A. Beridze, "Dispute Resolution in Russia," AMERICAN LAWYER, Nov. 1992.

14 Id.

15 Louis Uchitelle, "The Art of a Russian Deal: Ad-Libbing Contract Law," N.Y. TIMES, Jan. 17, 1992, p. A1.

16 Paul Klebnikov, "A Market Grows in Russia," FORBES, June 8, 1992, p. 78.

17 Vladimir Gubarev, "How to get your money back from con men," MOSCOW NEWS, Oct. 18, 1992. This article covers attempts by Russian businesses to reclaim funds lost to dishonest American and Western firms. See infra Chapter 7, for further discussion of Russian organized crime.

18 Duncan Robinson, "Weak Russian Contract Enforcement Takes Toll on Companies from US," JOURNAL OF COMMERCE, July 31, 1992, p. 4A. At least one American law firm advised its clients that they would be "naked" in Russia's legal system and should try to establish their own dispute resolution mechanisms.

19 In the last years of the Soviet Union, the monolithic Gosbank spawned a handful of specialized banks, including Pomstriobank, Zhilstosbank, Agrobank, Vneshekombank, and Sberbank.

20 MICHAEL BERSTAN & MICHAEL RABUSHKA, FIXING RUSSIA'S BANKS: A PROPOSAL FOR GROWTH, (Stanford: Hoover Institution Press, 1998).

21 Elizabeth Neuffer, "Capitalism takes hold in Russia," BOSTON GLOBE, Jan. 3, 1992, p. 1.

22 Jose Piñera, "Russia Unbound: A Report from Moscow," May 2000.

23 Michael McFaul, "Russia Needs True Reform, Not Higher Taxes," WALL ST. J., Aug. 4, 1998, p. A13.

24 "Presidential Decree on Bankruptcy," BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, June 29, 1992.

25 "Yeltsin Issues Various Decrees, on Bankrupt Enterprises and Other Issues," RUSSIA AND COMMONWEALTH BUSINESS LAW REPORT., Vol. 3, No. 5, June 26, 1992.

26 "Two Steps from Bankruptcy," OFFICIAL KREMLIN INTERNATIONAL NEWS BROADCAST, Federal Information Systems Corporation, Dec. 4, 1992. This admission was made by L. Paidiev, the chief of the Russian Economics Ministry department in charge of providing assistance (subsidies) to troubled enterprises.

27 Id.

28 Sen. Bob Packwood and James Carter, "Time is Ripe for US-Russia Free Trade," J. OF COM., Mar. 2, 1998, p. 7A.

 

Chapter 4

1 Acceptance Speech, New York City, July 16, 1992.

2 Acceptance Speech, New York City, July 16, 1992.

3 "A New Covenant for American Security," remarks at Georgetown University, Washington, D.C., Dec. 12, 1991.

4 Robert Bartley, "How Gore Lost Russia," WALL ST. J., Aug. 21,2000, A19.

5 Bruce W. Nelan, "The No-Guts, No-Glory Guys," TIME, Nov. 22, 1993, p. 48.

6 See text box, infra.

7 Elaine Sciolino, "Who'll Win Russia?", N.Y. TIMES, May 19, 1996, p. 1.

8 Thomas L. Friedman and Elaine Sciolino, "Clinton and Foreign Issues: Spasms of Attention," N.Y. TIMES, Mar. 22, 1993, p. A3.

9 Ann Devroy and Ruth Marcus, "President Clinton's First 100 Days; Ambitious Agenda and Interruptions Frustrate Efforts to Maintain Focus," WASH. POST, Apr. 29, 1993, p. A1.

10 President Clinton in a June 5, 2000, speech to the Russian Duma cited the fact that he has visited Russia during his two terms more frequently than any other president as evidence of his personal commitment to Russia policy making--an example of the substitution of form for substance that typified the administration's entire approach to Russia. In similar fashion, the Gore-Chernomyrdin Commission--to which the president handed over so much responsibility--produced a vast bureaucracy and voluminous reports, but little in the way of substantive results.

11 See infra Chapter 5.

12 According to legend, Prince Potemkin, the favorite of Catherine the Great, had sham villages erected along the route of one of her journeys to give the Czarina a delusive impression of the prosperity of her realm. It has been proverbial for more than two centuries.

13 Ceci Connolly, "Gore Labels GOP Drug Plan a Facade," WASH. POST, July 4, 2000, p. A6.

14 Bill Sammon, "Occidental Deal Benefits Gores; Sale of Federal Oil Field Boosts Family Fortune," WASH. TIMES, June 26, 2000, p. A1; "Gore, Hitting Bush for Oil Ties, is Knee Deep in His Own Crude; Owns $500,000 of Occidental," WASH. TIMES, June 23, 2000, p. A1; Patrick Cockburn, "Al Gore's Family Linked to Corrupt Oilman; Why the Vice President Knows So Much About Russia: Tycoon Armand Hammer Had the Politician's Father 'In His Back Pocket,'" THE INDEPENDENT (London), May 21, 2000, p. 21 ("The American press missed the point over the Gore-Chernomyrdin scandal," a diplomat in Moscow said last week. "Gore had access to the Soviet and then the Russian leadership long before he met Chernomyrdin because of his father's links to Hammer and Hammer's high-level contacts in the Soviet Union."); Alexander Cockburn, "Al Gore's Teapot Dome: Occidental Petroleum acquires large portion of Elk Hills," THE NATION, July 17, 2000, p. 10 ("Normally, the Department of Energy would have been responsible for examining whether the sale of this important national asset was in the best interests of the country. But the DOE was absolved from this task. Instead, Gore arranged for the consulting firm ICF Kaiser International to assess the sale. The chairman of ICF Kaiser was none other than master-fixer Tony Coelho, friend of Al and for a time overseer of the Gore presidential campaign. ICF Kaiser duly delivered a wholehearted and unqualified certification of the deal.").

15 Bruce Stokes, "Treasury Undersecretary Lawrence Summers on ..." NAT'L J., Feb. 26, 1994, p. 470.

16 Ambassador-at-Large, Special Adviser to the Secretary of State for the New Independent States.

17 Thomas L. Friedman and Elaine Sciolino, "Clinton and Foreign Issues: Spasms of Attention," N.Y. TIMES, Mar. 22, 1993, p. A3.

18 Talbott has been described in the press as "chronically disorganized." Steven Erlanger, "Russia Vote Is a Testing Time for a Key Friend of Clinton's," N.Y. TIMES, June 8, 1996, p. A1. See also Margaret Carlson, CNN's Capital Gang, Jan. 1, 1994.

19 Strobe Talbott, Hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the Nomination of Strobe Talbott to be Ambassador-at-Large and Special Adviser to the Secretary of State on the Commonwealth of Independent States, Mar. 23, 1993.

20 See infra Chapter 5.

21 As Russia scholar Dimitri Simes told the New York Times in 1996, "I think [Talbott's] self-confidence was a little misplaced ... And the combination of his know-it-all phenomenon and his closeness to the President and his bureaucratic skills undermined the normal analytic process of policy making." Steven Erlanger, "Russia Vote Is a Testing Time for a Key Friend of Clinton's," N.Y. TIMES, June 8, 1996, p. A1. See also testimony of David H. Swartz, former Ambassador to Belarus under the Bush and Clinton administrations, before the House International Relations Committee, "U.S. Policy Towards Russia, Part I: Warnings and Dissent," Oct. 6, 1999, pp. 63-64 ("In my experience, Talbott always knew best ... refuting, rebutting, rejecting, or simply ignoring advice from his ambassadors in the field and other assistants.").

22 Meeting between Summers and the Speaker's Advisory Group, June 28, 2000.

23 Statement to the Speaker's Advisory Group on Russia by Thomas Graham, June 7, 2000. On Summers and Chubais, see also JANINE WEDEL, COLLISION AND COLLUSION: THE STRANGE CASE OF WESTERN AID TO EASTERN EUROPE 1989-1998 (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1998), pp. 124-127.

24 Peter Reddaway, "Questions about Russia's 'Dream Team'," CSIS POST-SOVIET PROSPECTS, Vol. V, No. 5, Sept. 1997.

25 General Accounting Office, "Harvard Institute for International Development's Work in Russia and Ukraine," GAO/NSIAD-97-27, Nov. 27, 1997, p. 4.

26 JANINE WEDEL, COLLISION AND COLLUSION: THE STRANGE CASE OF WESTERN AID TO EASTERN EUROPE 1989-1998 (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1998), pp. 127-128. See also Michael Dobbs and Paul Blustein, "Lost Illusions About Russia; U.S. Backers of Ill-Fated Reforms Now Portrayed as Naïve," WASH. POST, Sept. 12, 1999, p. A1; "Tainted Transactions: An Exchange," NAT'L INTEREST, Summer 2000 (comments by Jeffrey Sachs, Anders Åslund, Marek Dabrowski, Peter Reddaway, Igor Aristov, Wayne Merry, Michael Hudson, David Ellerman, Steven Rosefielde, and Janine Wedel).

27 Remarks by Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers at the U.S.-Russia Business Council Conference, Federal News Service, Apr. 1, 1997.

28 Michael Dobbs and Paul Blustein, "Lost Illusions about Russia; U.S. Backers of Ill-Fated Reforms Now Portrayed as Naïve," WASH. POST, Sept. 12, 1999, p. A1.

29 See, e.g., Peter Baker, "Clinton Treads Careful Path Through Unsettled Moscow," WASH. POST, Sept. 2, 1998, p. A27; John M. Broder, "Summit in Moscow: The Overview; Clinton Tells Moscow Crowd That Future Won't Be Easy," N.Y. TIMES, Sept. 2, 1998, p. A1.

 

Chechnya Section

1 Maureen Greenwood, Amnesty International USA, "Increased Level of Torture in the Russian Republic of Chechnya," testimony before the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, June 21, 2000.

2 Jim Nichol, "Chechnya Conflict: Recent Developments," CRS Report for Congress, May 3, 2000.

3 Steven Erlanger, "Christopher, Visiting Russia Hints at Support for Yeltsin," N.Y. TIMES, Mar. 23, 1996, p. A4; Michael S. Lelyveld, "U.S. Downplays Russia's Misdeeds, Experts Say," J. OF COM., Mar. 28, 1996, p. A1 ("In an hour long meeting with Mr. Yeltsin this morning, Mr. Christopher stressed the positive, workmanlike, constructive side of the United States-Russian relationship, his aides say, and touched not at all on major sore points, like ... the ongoing warfare in Chechnya.").

4 David Hoffman, "Clinton, Yeltsin Gloss Over Chechen War; Russian Leaders Denies Fighting Continues Despite Rising Death Toll," WASH. POST, Apr. 22, 1996, p. A1.

5 Elaine Sciolino, "Who'll Win Russia? For America, Uncertainty Drops the Riddle," N.Y. TIMES, May 19, 1996, p. 1.

6 See generally Rajan Menon and Graham Fuller, "Russia's Ruinous Chechen War," FOREIGN AFFAIRS, March/April 2000, pp. 32-44.

7 David Hoffman, "Russian Premier Pins Bombing on Chechens," WASH. POST., Sept. 16, 1999, p. A26.

8 Yabloko originally supported the war but called for negotiations--on tough terms--shortly before the election. Clinton administration troika ally Anatoly Chubais called Yavlinsky a traitor for suggesting the time had come for talks. Yabloko lost a number of seats in the new Duma because of its "soft" stance on the Russian intervention.

9 Dmitri Trenin, "Chechnya: Effects of the War and Prospects for Peace," Carnegie Moscow Center.

10 Testimony before the European Affairs Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Apr. 12, 2000.

11 Bill Clinton, "Remembering Yeltsin," TIME, Jan. 1, 2000.

12 Testimony before the European Affairs Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Apr. 12, 2000.

13 TIME (int'l ed.), Jan. 17, 2000.

14 Testimony before the European Affairs Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Apr. 12, 2000.

15 Gore has made at least one incoherent statement Moscow could interpret as approval for a wider war, applying the term "rogue state," which has since been banished from the Clinton administration's lexicon, to the region surrounding Chechnya: "I took on the task of leading our effort to work with Russia--not because it was politically popular, but because it was right for America's security, and right for the spread of democracy around the world." Vice President Al Gore, Boston, Mass., Apr. 30, 2000. "And in the talks that we have been having with them, there are signs of an increasing recognition within Russia that the threats that they face on their southern border from extremist groups, from the potential emergence of rogue states in the area to their south they have all the conflict they're trying to deal with in the region now that's produced a new awareness on their part that they might have something to gain from allowing a limited system." LATE EDITION WITH WOLF BLITZER, CNN, Apr. 30, 2000.

 

Chapter 4 continued

30 Testimony of Dimitri Simes, President of the Nixon Center, before the Speaker's Advisory Group on Russia, Apr. 13, 2000.

31 Testimony of Strobe Talbott before the House Appropriations Committee, Apr. 19, 1993.

32 Testimony of Strobe Talbott before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Oct. 6, 1993.

33 BORIS YELTSIN, THE STRUGGLE FOR RUSSIA (New York: Random House, 1994), p. 255 ("Formally, the president was violating the Constitution, going the route of antidemocratic measures, and dispersing the parliament--all for the sake of establishing democracy and the rule of law in the country. The parliament was defending the Constitution--in order to overthrow the lawfully elected president and establish total Soviet rule."). See also id., p. 242.

34 "Brief on Upcoming Exchange Conference to Promote Trade between the U.S. and the Newly Independent States," Federal News Service, Oct. 13, 1993 (emphasis added).

35 Dimitri K. Simes and Paul J. Saunders, "The Icon and the Hacks," NAT'L REVIEW, Oct. 12, 1998, p. 44.

36 Indeed, administration favorite Anatoly Chubais branded Yavlinsky a "traitor" in the fall of 1999 for suggesting that negotiations with Chechen leaders could be appropriate.

37 See, e.g., Natalia Dinello, "Bankers' Wars in Russia: Trophies and Wounds," POST-SOVIET PROSPECTS, Vol. VI, No. 1, Feb. 1998, p. 3.

38 Id., p. 4.

39 Leonid Bershidsky, "Loans for Shares Unraveling," MOSCOW TIMES, Feb. 3, 1996. See also Stephanie Simon, "Russia's Lofty Plan to Privatize State Companies is Near Collapse; Auctions: Some Firms Have Been Sold, But Critics Say Politics, Ineptitude Have Kept Many Choice Holdings Off the Block," L.A. TIMES, Dec. 8, 1995, p. D1.

40 Matt Bivens, "Laundering Yeltsin: How US Hypocrisy Feeds Russian Corruption," THE NATION, vol. 269, no. 10, Oct. 4, 1999, p. 11.

41 Lee S. Wolosky, "Putin's Plutocrat Problem," FOREIGN AFFAIRS, vol. 79, no. 2, p. 21.

42 Id., p. 20.

43 Jonas Bernstein, "Loans-for-Shares Nets $1 Billion," MOSCOW TIMES, Dec. 30, 1995.

44 FRONTLINE, Public Broadcasting Service, May 9, 2000.

45 Id.

46 Lee S. Wolosky, "Putin's Plutocrat Problem," FOREIGN AFFAIRS, vol. 79, no. 2, p. 20. In one case, for example, Menatep Bank reportedly received a "strange deposit" of $50 million from Russia's Finance Ministry that was essential to its bid to acquire Sibneft. See Jonas Bernstein, "Loans-for-Shares Nets $1 Billion," MOSCOW TIMES, Dec. 30, 1995.

47 Although the system of "authorized banks" was eventually scrapped, it had a profound impact on the structure of Russia's banking system.

48 FRONTLINE, Public Broadcasting Service, May 9, 2000.

49 Testimony of Secretary Summers before the Speaker's Advisory Group on Russia, June 28, 2000.

50 See, e.g., Lee S. Wolosky, "Putin's Plutocrat Problem," FOREIGN AFFAIRS, vol. 79, no. 2, pp. 22-24.

51 DIMITRI K. SIMES, AFTER THE COLLAPSE: RUSSIA SEEKS ITS PLACE AS A GREAT POWER (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1999), pp. 171-72; John Lloyd, "The Russian Devolution," N.Y. TIMES, Aug. 15, 1999.

52 FRONTLINE, Public Broadcasting Service, May 9, 2000.

53 Lee Hockstader and David Hoffman, "Yeltsin Campaign Rose From Tears to Triumph; Money, Advertising Turned Fortunes Around," WASH. POST, July 7, 1996, p. A1.

54 David Hoffman, "Yeltsin Dismisses 3 Hard-Line Aides From Key Positions," WASH. POST, June 21, 1996, p. A1.

55 STEPHEN WHITE, RUSSIA'S NEW POLITICS: THE MANAGEMENT OF A POSTCOMMUNIST SOCIETY (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000) p. 97; "International Observer Mission: Election of President of the Russian Federation 16th June 1996 and 3rd July 1996 Report on the Election," OSCE/ODIHR.

56 In addition to the suspected use of IMF funds as a piggy bank for the Yeltsin campaign, the OSCE documented several examples of election irregularities, including Yeltsin supporters accosting citizens as they entered the voting booths and sometimes even entering the voting booths and emerging with multiple ballots. "Final Statement of the OSCE/ODIHR Observer Mission--First Round of Voting," Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, June 18, 1996.

57 This ostrich-like approach to inconvenient possibilities often went to remarkable lengths. In January 1996, when observers in Congress and the executive branch were deeply concerned about the possibility of a Communist victory in the upcoming Russian presidential elections, "Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott's first draft of a major analysis of Russia policy last January omitted any discussion of what to expect if the Communists won. Only after colleagues drew the omission to Mr. Talbott's attention did he insert a 'what if' section in the final version." Elaine Sciolino, "Who'll Win Russia? For America, Uncertainty Drops the Riddle," N.Y. TIMES MAGAZINE, May 19, 1996, p. 4. The point, of course, is not that the Clinton administration should have been indifferent to the outcome once the election became a choice between Yeltsin and the Communists, but that the administration habitually failed to consider negative contingencies in Russia--some of which failed to arise, like a Communist victory in 1996, while others, like dishonesty among the administration's Russian "partners," came to haunt U.S.-Russian relations.

58 Janine R. Wedel, "Tainted Transactions: Harvard, the Chubais Clan and Russia's Ruin," NAT'L INTEREST, Spring 2000.

59 Even now, the Clinton administration continues to promote the number of privatizations rather than the results: "Tens of thousands of state-owned enterprises have been privatized and more than 900,000 small businesses have been established, contributing to Russia's recent economic rebound." Leon Fuerth, "Russia's Future: Progress, Prospects, and U.S. Policy," remarks to the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, July 25, 2000. The issue is not that enterprises were transferred from the state--it is to whom and into what conditions they were transferred--and the effect those transfers had on future economic growth. With respect to small business, many are of course formed by entrepreneurial Russians who have been thrown out of work, and 900,000 in a nation of 146 million is not particularly impressive. Finally, the primary cause of recent economic good news in Russia is higher oil prices. Russia's much more valuable human resources remain sadly underutilized.

60 Testimony of Lawrence Summers before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, Feb. 8, 1994.

61 Fiscal Year 1995, "USAID/Russia: An Overview of Program and Objectives."

62 Testimony of Strobe Talbott before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Mar. 23, 1994.

63 Boris Fyodorov, "Killing with Kindness: No More 'Help' for Russia, Please," EUROPEAN WALL ST. J., June 8, 2000.

 

Financial Aid Chart

1 This is the amount of cumulative expenditures for activities carried out by the Departments of Defense ($790 million), Agriculture ($2.42 billion), and Energy ($584 million), and other smaller agencies. The amount budgeted for non-FREEDOM Support Act activities for Russia is $5.17 billion, and the amount obligated is $4.54 billion.

2 The United States contributes 18.25% of the IMF's total quotas (about $35 billion), the largest contribution of any country.

3 Includes FREEDOM Support Act funds only. This is the amount of cumulative expenditures for Freedom Support Act Funds. The amount budgeted for Russia is $2.49 billion, and the amount obligated is $2.44 billion.

4 Includes lending through July 1999, done through the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and International Development Association (IDA), both part of the World Bank. More than $11 billion has been approved but only $6.6 billion has been disbursed--$2 billion for investment loans and $4.6 billion for adjustment loans. Calculated based on a U.S. share of 16%.

5 The U.S. has a 10% share in the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and is the largest single shareholder.

 

Chapter 4 continued

64 YEGOR GAIDAR, DAYS OF DEFEAT AND VICTORY, (Seattle, Wash.: Univ. Wash. Press: 1999), p. 143.

65 See supra Chapter 3.

66 Joseph Stiglitz, "The Insider," NEW REPUBLIC, Apr. 17, 2000, p. 56.

 

Chapter 5

1 Joint Statement by President Clinton and President Yeltsin at the Vancouver Summit, Apr. 4, 1993.

2 Id.

3 Remarks by Leon Fuerth at the Foreign Press Center, Dec. 22, 1993.

4 The White House, "Facts on the U.S.-Russia Joint Commission on Economic and Technological Cooperation," July 27, 1999.

5 Testimony of Thomas Graham, Jr., before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Sept. 30, 1999.

6 Thomas W. Lippman, "An Obscure Force in National Security Edges Into Limelight," WASH. POST, June 16, 1998, p. A19.

7 Id.

8 E. Wayne Merry, "Gore Should Own Up to His Part in Russian Mess," NEWSDAY, Sept. 8, 1999, p. A40.

9 Testimony of Thomas Graham, Jr., before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Sept. 30, 1999.

10 The Gore-Primakov Commission's one plenary session was dramatically cancelled by Prime Minster Primakov, who ordered his airplane to turn back to Russia in midflight to signal his objection to Western policy in Kosovo. See Chapter 10 infra. The most recent Russian prime ministers, Putin and Kasyanov, have apparently chosen to downplay the Commission, which has not met this year.

11 The White House, "Joint Report of 10th GCC Meeting," Mar. 11, 1998.

12 Mariya Bogatykh, "Gore-Kiriyenko Talks Break with Past," MOSCOW SEGODNYA via FBIS Translation, July 24, 1998, p. 5.

13 E. Wayne Merry, "Gore Should Own Up to His Part in Russian Mess," NEWSDAY, Sept. 8, 1999, p. A40.

14 Id.

15 Fritz Ermath, "Seeing Russia Plain," NAT'L INTEREST, Spring 1999, p. 5.

16 Remarks by Vice President Gore at press conference, Dec. 16, 1993.

17 Marcia Smith, "Space Stations," CRS Report to Congress, July 12, 2000, p. 9.

18 Id.

19 Testimony of Joe Rothenberg, NASA Associate Administrator for Human Spaceflight, before the House Science Committee, Mar. 19, 1998.

20 Johnson Space Center, Briefing on the International Space Station for Congressional Staffers, Feb. 19, 1999.

21 The appropriations bills for FY 2001 include no funds for further payments to Russia.

22 Remarks by Vice President Gore at a press conference with Russian Prime Minister Chernomyrdin, Jan. 30, 1996.

23 David Hoffman, "Russians Go From Atoms to Low-Tech; Nuclear Scientists Push New Consumer Goods," WASH. POST, Oct. 25, 1995, p. A21.

24 House Committee on International Relations, Report on the Iran Missile Proliferation Sanctions Act of 1997 (H. Rept. 105-375), p. 5.

25 See infra Chapter 9 for a more complete discussion of the extent of Russian proliferation during the Clinton and Yeltsin administrations.

26 Remarks by Vice President Gore and Prime Minister Chernomyrdin at a press conference, Feb. 7, 1997.

27 The Additional Views were signed by the ranking Democrat on the Committee, Lee Hamilton, and by Sam Gejdenson, Bob Clement, Tom Lantos, Gary Ackerman, Eni Faleomavaega, Pat Danner, and Howard Berman. See House International Relations Committee, Report on the Iran Missile Proliferation Sanctions Act of 1997, p. 14.

28 Bill Gertz, "Gore Raises Sale to Iran with Chernomyrdin," WASH. TIMES, Feb. 13, 1997, p. A10.

29 Report on the Iran Missile Proliferation Sanctions Act of 1997, pp. 4-6.

30 William J. Clinton, "Message to the House of Representatives Returning Without Approval the 'Iran Missile Proliferation Sanctions Act of 1998,'" June 29, 1998.

31 Bill Gertz, "Russia, China Aid Iran's Missile Program," WASH. TIMES, Sept. 10, 1997, p. A1.

32 Joint Statement of the Co-Chairmen of the U.S.-Russian Joint Commission on Economic and Technological Cooperation, July 27, 1999.

33 Director of Central Intelligence, Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January-30 June 1999, released Feb. 2000.

 

Chapter 6

1 John Lloyd, "The Russian Devolution," N.Y. TIMES MAGAZINE, Aug. 15, 1999, p. 34.

2 James Risen, "Gore Rejected CIA Evidence of Russian Corruption," N.Y. TIMES, NOV. 23, 1998, p. A8.

3 Paul Starobin, "Moscow Mirage," NAT'L JOUR., vol. 31, no. 16, Apr. 17, 1999, p. 1034.

4 David Ignatius, "Russian Crapshoot," WASH. POST, Sept. 1, 1999, p. A23.

5 James Risen, "Gore Rejected CIA Evidence of Russian Corruption," N.Y. TIMES, Nov. 23, 1998, p. A8.

6 David Ignatius, "Russian Crapshoot," WASH. POST, Sept. 1, 1999, p. A23.

7 Julia Rubin, "Gore Backs Chernomyrdin at Start Of Moscow Visit," Associated Press, June 28, 1995.

8 Peter Reddaway, "Better Than Whitewater: Scandal Dogs Russia's Rising Star," WASH. POST, Aug. 20, 1995, p. C3. See also Reddaway, "Is Chernomyrdin a Crook?", POST-SOVIET PROSPECTS, Vol. III, No. 8, August 1995 (describing the "avalanche of public, high-level charges that Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin has 'robbed Russia' to make himself a billionaire").

9 Reddaway, supra, POST-SOVIET PROSPECTS, Vol. III, No. 8, August 1995.

10 Steven Erlanger, "A Corrupt Tide in Russia From State-Business Ties," N.Y. TIMES, July 3, 1995, p. A1.

11 Thomas Pickering, "How Russia Is Ruled: The Political And Economic Lobbies," March 1995. Pickering's cable was intended to describe how "Russia [is] ruled by an oligarchy of economic and bureaucratic pressure groups ... able to [put] pressure directly on the political elite."

12 Fred Hiatt, "Political Elites Vie for Power In Russian Quasi-Democracy; Transition From Communism at Stake," WASH. POST, Mar. 26, 1995, p. A1. The $30 billion figure is in Anders Aslund, "Russia's Sleaze Sector," N.Y. TIMES, July 11, 1995, p. A19.

13 LILIA SHEVTSOVA, YELTSIN'S RUSSIA (Washington: Carnegie Endowment, 1999), p. 141.

14 VALERY STRELETSKY, MRAKOBESIYE (Moscow: Detektiv-Press, 1998), p. 15.

15 Id.

16 See David Filipov, "A real gem of a scandal: Russian magnate may have stolen millions in jewels," BOSTON GLOBE, June 27, 1998, p.A2; Alexander Shashkov, "Ex-Premier Chernomyrdin questioned in court over diamond deal," Itar-TASS, May 26, 2000.

17 Oleg Lurye, "Switzerland as the Mirror of the Kremlin--A Look at the Top People in Government From the Perspective of Lake Geneva; An Exclusive Interview with High-Ranking Officials of the Swiss Police and Prosecutor's Office by a Novaya Gazeta Correspondent," Novaya Gazeta (Electronic Version, in Russian), No. 25, June 26 to July 2, 2000, p. 6.

18 Bruce D. Berkowitz and Jeffrey T. Richelson, "The CIA Vindicated: The Soviet Collapse was Predicted," NAT'L INTEREST, Fall 1995.

19 James Risen, "Gore Rejected CIA Evidence of Russian Corruption," N.Y. TIMES, Nov. 23, 1998, p. A8.

20 David Ignatius, "Who Robbed Russia? Did Al Gore know about the massive lootings?" WASH. POST, Aug. 25, 1999, p. A17.

21 Christopher Marquis, "Clinton administration unveils plan to combat money laundering," Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, Sept. 23, 1999.

22 Fritz Ermarth, "Seeing Russia Plain," NAT'L INTEREST, Spring 1999, No. 55, p. 12. Ermarth, who retired from the CIA in 1998, has served as Chairman of the National Intelligence Council and in a variety of other senior government posts.

23 "Conceptual Provisions of a Strategy for Countering the Main External Threats to Russian Federation National Security," INOBIS, Moscow Institute of Defense Studies, October 1995, pp. 4-5.

24 Interview of Al Gore by Tim Russert, MEET THE PRESS, July 16, 2000 (Emphasis added).

25 James Risen, "Gore Rejected CIA Evidence of Russian Corruption," N.Y. TIMES, Nov. 23, 1998, p. A8.

26 James Risen, "CIA Denies That It Withheld Reports on Russian Corruption," N.Y. TIMES, Nov. 25, 1999, p. A6.

27 James Risen, "Gore Rejected CIA Evidence of Russian Corruption," N.Y. TIMES, Nov. 23, 1998, p. A8.

28 Id.

29 Interview of Al Gore by Tim Russert, MEET THE PRESS, July 16, 2000. Gore continued:

I think that in his dealings with our country, he proved to be a person whose word was worthy of respect, and we accomplished a great deal with Chernomyrdin. In fact, right here at the Naval Observatory, I talked with him personally and worked out the provisions by which the war in Kosovo was ended, and he played a major role in that. And you know, Russia is now--for all of its many problems, the question there is not whether or not to return to communism, the question on the table in Russia is: How fast are they going to move forward with the reforms? They now have a privatized market. They have more private ownership in their economy than many countries in Western Europe. They have a democracy. ...

Gore's attribution to Chernomyrdin of credit for Russian democracy and the absence of a Communist comeback in Russia is grossly exaggerated. For Chernomyrdin's unhelpful role in mediating the end of the Kosovo conflict, see Chapter 10 infra.

30 David Hoffman, "Russia Was Lab For Theories on Foreign Policy," WASH. POST, June 4, 2000, p. A9.

31 Peter Reddaway, "Better Than Whitewater: Scandal Dogs Russia's Rising Star," WASH. POST, Aug. 20, 1995, p. C3.

32 David Hoffman, "Russia Was Lab for Theories on Foreign Policy," WASH. POST, June 4, 2000, p. A9.

33 For the Gore-Chernomyrdin Commission's work product, see Chapter 5 supra.

34 In February 1999, Vice President Gore gave a speech on the self-evident evils of corruption in which he appropriated without attribution the words of Edmund Burke ("Corruption has so frequently triumphed in our world because good men and women did nothing") while proposing no more specific plan of action than further discussions and meetings. The patent irony of his notorious association with some of the most corrupt figures in Russia spoke more eloquently even then Burke's famous words on this occasion. Closing remarks of Vice President Al Gore at the Global Forum on Fighting Corruption, Washington, D.C., Feb. 26, 1999.

35 For further problems with the Commission see Chapter 5 supra.

36 Testimony of Wayne Merry, Director, the Atlantic Council of the United States, before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, on "Corruption in Russia," Sept. 23, 1999.

37 FRONTLINE, Public Broadcasting Service, May 9, 2000

38 Id.

39 Id.

40 Robert Kaiser, "Pumping Up the Problem; Has Investing in the Yeltsin Machine Put America's Relationship With Russia at Risk?" WASH. POST, Aug. 15, 1999, p. B1.

41 Thomas Graham, Statement to the Speaker's Advisory Group on Russia, June 7, 2000.

42 Stephanie Nebehay, "Swiss want U.S., Russian help in laundering probe," Reuters, June 9, 2000.

43 Paul Starobin, "Moscow Mirage," NAT'L JOURNAL, Vol. 31, No. 16, Apr. 17, 1999, p. 1034.

 

Chapter 7

1 Aaron Lukas, Gary Dempsey, "Mafia Capitalism or Red Legacy in Russia?", CATO Institute, Mar. 4, 2000, p. 4.

2 Id., p. 4.

3 CSIS, RUSSIAN ORGANIZED CRIME: GLOBAL ORGANIZED CRIME PROJECT (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1997), p. 3.

4 Christian Caryl, Anne Nivat, "Reality is Virtually Horrible," U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, Nov. 8, 1999, p. 60; Nikolai Styazhkin, "Five Policemen Sentenced in Budennovsk Hostage-Taking Drama," Itar-TASS, July 15, 1996.

5 CSIS, RUSSIAN ORGANIZED CRIME: GLOBAL ORGANIZED CRIME PROJECT (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1997), p. 20.

6 "[I]nstitutional economics literature and extensive empirical analysis ... show that the structure and activities of organized criminal groups are significantly shaped by the state." Curtis J. Milhaupt and Mark D. West, "The Dark Side of Private Ordering: An Institutional and Empirical Analysis of Organized Crime," 67 U. CHI. L. REV. 41, Winter 2000.

7 Francis T. Miko, "International Crime: Russian Organized Crime's Role and U.S. Interests," CRS Report to Congress, Oct. 30, 1998.

8 RUSSIAN ORGANIZED CRIME (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1997), p. 2.

9 Interfax, June 23, 2000.

10 Paul J. Saunders, Testimony before the House Committee on Banking and Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, Sept. 15, 1998.

11 "300,000 Economic Crimes Uncovered Last Year," Itar-TASS, Feb. 10, 2000.

12 "Business Law Review," Interfax, Apr. 4, 2000 Volume S, FBIS CEP20000404000276.

13 "300,000 Economic Crimes Uncovered Last Year," Itar-TASS, Feb. 10, 2000.

14 "Top Russian Police Officer Gives Organized Crime Figures," Foreign Broadcast Information Service, RIA-VESTI, June 7, 2000, FBIS-SOV-2000-0607-000085; "Russian Interior Ministry: 95 Criminal Communities Acting in Russia," Interfax, June 8, 2000, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, FBIS-SOV-2000- 0608-000127.

15 "Top Russian Police Officer Gives Organized Crime Figures," RIA-VESTI, June 7, 2000, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, FBIS-SOV-2000-0607-000085. The editor-in-chief of the information agency for the International Association for Combating Drug Addiction and Drug Trafficking, Vladimir Shashkov, reported that 40,000 firms in Russia "controlled by organized crime groupings" were "laundering narco-money." Interfax, June 23, 2000.

16 "Russia's Criminals Go Global," JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW, Mar. 2000, p. 10.

17 Pat Milton, "Russian mob seeks money and power in America and overseas," Associated Press, June 18, 2000. Such groups have also been compared to parasites:

But the problem in Russia today is that organized crime is well on the way to becoming a major, perhaps in time a dominating, factor in the Russian polity. An example from the world of biology may help make the point. In the early stages of its growth on a host tree in the rain forest, the strangler fig looks like many other parasitical vines. But the strangler fig's tendrils ... grow stronger and slowly more and more vines work their way down the tree, join one another, and become a circular shell, an outer trunk that completely surrounds the tree. The tree inside begins to die, and in the final stages what was once a healthy host tree with a few vines on it becomes nothing but the rotten core of a new strangler fig tree. The parasite replaces its host. ... There are definitely more than just a few organized crime tendrils on the Russian tree.

R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence, testimony before the House National Security Committee, hearing on "Challenges Posed by Russia to United States National Security Interests, June 13, 1996, p. 18. "Banking, the extractive industries, exporting oil, gas, timber, and other natural resources, and many manufacturing enterprises are thoroughly penetrated by organized crime. Even more troubling, so are important parts of the security services, the military, and other parts of the government." Id.

18 "Challenges Posed by Russia to United States National Security Interests," June 13, 1996, H.N.S.C. No. 104-40, p. 31. (The Committee was the Committee on National Security during the 104th Congress.)

19 Id., pp. 32-33.

20 Svyatoslav Timchenko, "Land of Brazen Killers; 17 contract Killings in St. Petersburg Since the Beginning of the Year but Not One of Them Has Yet been Solved," MOSCOW NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA, May 6, 2000; "Commercial Banker Shot Dead in Contract Killing," Itar-TASS, June 14, 2000; EKHO MOSKVY RADIO, June 16, 2000; MOSCOW KOMMERSANT, May 23, 2000; Gregory Feifer, "Uralmash Director Killed in Sverdlovsk," MOSCOW TIMES, July 11, 2000.

21 Daniel Williams, "Fees for Eternity: The Long Arm of Organized Crime Reaches Deeply in St. Petersburg's Cemeteries," WASH. POST, May 28, 2000, p. A20.

22 Svyatoslav Timchenko, "Land of Brazen Killers; 17 contract Killings in St. Petersburg Since the Beginning of the Year but Not One of Them Has Yet been Solved," MOSCOW NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA, May 6, 2000; "Commercial Banker Shot Dead in Contract Killing," Itar-TASS, June 14, 2000; EKHO MOSKVY RADIO, June 16, 2000; MOSCOW KOMMERSANT, May 23, 2000; Gregory Feifer, "Uralmash Director Killed in Sverdlovsk," MOSCOW TIMES, July 11, 2000; "Being a journalist in Russia is really risky," Agence France Presse, July 30, 2000; Russia Today, July 31, 2000, citing BBC Monitoring of Itar-TASS report.

23 See supra, Chapter 4.

24 Janine Wedel, "Tainted Transactions: Harvard, the Chubais Clan and Russia's Ruin," NAT'L INTEREST, Spring 2000, citing U.S. General Accounting Office, "Foreign Assistance: Harvard Institute for International Development's Work in Russia and Ukraine" (Washington, DC: GAO, Nov. 1996), p. 60; Russian Privatization Center 1994 Annual Report, pp. 5, 24; interview with and documents provided by Veniamin Sokolov (auditor at the Chamber of Accounts of the Russian Federation), May 31, 1998; Veniamin Sokolov, talk at American University, June 2, 1998.

25 R. James Woolsey, testimony before the House National Security Committee, hearing on "Challenges Posed by Russia to United States National Security Interests," June 13, 1996, p. 18 ("If an American businessman meets with a nattily-dressed and articulate Russian who claims that he is with an international trading and banking firm in Moscow and he would like to discuss a joint venture covering, say, the export of Russian oil, such an individual may be what he says he is. Or he may be a Russian intelligence officer operating under commercial cover. Or he may be an important member of a Russian organized crime group. But the really interesting point is that there is a reasonable chance that he is all three--and that none of those three institutions sees any problem with such an arrangement.")

26 CSIS, RUSSIAN ORGANIZED CRIME: GLOBAL ORGANIZED CRIME PROJECT, (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1997), p. 3.

27 Lee S. Wolosky, "Putin's Plutocrat Problem," FOR. AFFAIRS, Mar./Apr. 2000, p. 18.

28 The ownership of Gazprom remains a mystery to the press today. "Many analysts--and at least one official inquiry--believe that Itera [International Energy Corporation, with offices in Jacksonville, Florida] and these other companies in Gazprom's close orbit are owned by Gazprom's management or their relatives." Charles Clover, "Gazprom's sweetheart reaps Arctic Russia's riches: A company of uncertain ownership has been very well treated by the gas monopoly," FIN. TIMES, Aug. 11, 2000, p. 3. See also David Hoffman, "Itera: Mystery Player in Russia's Natural Gas Market," WASH. POST, May 21, 2000, p. H1. While it is generally accepted by analysts that Chernomyrdin became extremely wealthy thanks to his Gazprom connections, the Russian energy industry does not appreciate such publicity. In April 1997, Izvestia republished a Le Monde report that Chernomyrdin had amassed a personal fortune of $5 billion in connection with "privatization." In an example of the extraordinary ties between the energy and media sectors in Russia, after Izvestia's publication of this report, the petroleum giant Lukoil, a major Izvestia shareholder, "promptly called an extraordinary shareholders meeting, took a majority on the newspaper's board, and sacked its top editors." Andrew McChesney, "Paper Says Lukoil Menaced Reporter," MOSCOW TIMES, Feb. 1, 2000; Daniel Williams, "'Citizen Kane' on Pushkin Square: Rough Politics, Secret Deals End in Corporate Coup at Russia's Izvestia Newspaper and De Facto Dismissal of Longtime Editor," L.A. TIMES, July 13, 1997. Former Russian Finance Minister Boris Fyodorov had written in Izvestia May 26, 1995 that Chernomyrdin had acquired 1% of the stock in Gazprom, a company that could be worth $700 billion. See Peter Reddaway, "Is Chernomyrdin a Crook?" POST-SOVIET PROSPECTS, Vol. III, No. 8, August 1995, at http://www.csis.org/ruseura/psp/pspiii8.html (Reddaway was the director of the Kennan Institute for Advance Russian Studies; a shorter version of the paper was published in the Washington Post, Aug. 20, 1995.). See Chapter 6 supra.

29 "American University Transnational Crime and Corruption Center's Organized Crime Watch," Vol. 1, No. 3, Mar./Apr. 1999, pp. 21-22.

30 Id. pp. 22-23.

31 "In 1991 we did fight the Persian Gulf War. We did win. And now gas prices are very high, highest they have been. And I think the reason they're high now is because we more or less asked OPEC to raise oil prices in hopes of helping Russia be able to sell its oil on the international market, make more foreign exchange and be able to develop its economy." Bill Bradley, debate with Vice President Al Gore, Mar. 1, 2000.

32 Andrew Hamilton, "How the White House Helped Pump Up the Price," WASH. POST, Apr. 30, 2000, p. B3.

33 Marc Lacey and David E. Sanger, "The President's News Conference: Clinton Moves to Give Northeast Aid With Fuel Oil," N.Y. TIMES, Feb. 17, 2000, p. A20.

34 Paul J. Saunders, testimony before the House Committee on Banking and Financial Services, Sept. 15, 1998; Clifford G. Gaddy & Barry W. Ickes, "Russia's Virtual Economy," FOR. AFFAIRS, Sept./Oct. 1998.

35 Saunders, Id.

37 "In 20 regions, wage and pension payments are more than three months behind schedule, and in 27 more arrears are continuing to mount. Only 5 of Russia's 89 regions have no wage and pension debts: St. Petersburg, Moscow, Krasnodar, Yamal-Nenets, and Taimyr." "Economy: Wage Debts Decline," RUSSIAN BUSINESS NEWS UPDATE, JOSH ZANDER FINANCIAL AND MANAGEMENT CONSULTING SERVICES, Apr. 1, 1999.

38 Included in this are teachers, state hospital doctors, city service providers, and others.

39 "MP Says Capital Flight Losses $20 Billion Monthly," INTERFAX, May 24, 2000, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, FBIS-SOV-2000-0524.

40 Foreign direct investment in Russia between 1993 and 1999 totals $17.73 billion, according to the BISNIS web site of the Department of Commerce (http://www.bisnis.gov). Capital flight also exceeds Russia's total foreign debt ($178 billion according to the World Bank's web site, http://www.worldbank.org).

41 CSIS, RUSSIAN ORGANIZED CRIME: GLOBAL ORGANIZED CRIME PROJECT, (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1997) p. 4.

42 Id. p. 16.

43 Paul J. Saunders, testimony Before the Committee on Banking and Financial Services, United States House of Representatives, Sept. 15, 1998.

44 "American University Transnational Crime and Corruption Center's Organized Crime Watch," vol. 1, no. 3, Mar./Apr. 1999, pp. 25-27; "Deputies to the Federation Council and Deputies to the State Duma shall possess immunity throughout their term in office," Russian Federation Constitution, chap. 5, art. 98.

45 CSIS, RUSSIAN ORGANIZED CRIME: GLOBAL ORGANIZED CRIME PROJECT, (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1999) p. 5.

46 Stefan Leader, David Wiencek, "Drug money: The Fuel for Global Terrorism," JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW, Feb. 1, 2000.

47 Columbia is now the world's largest cocaine producer with over 100,000 hectares of land under coca cultivation, up from 25,000 hectares in 1994.

48 Douglas Farah, "Colombian Rebels Tap E. Europe for Arms; Guerrillas' Firepower Superior to Army's," WASH. POST, Nov. 4, 1999, p. A1.

49 Thomson Adam, "'Mafia links' boost Colombia cocaine exports," FIN. TIMES, Nov. 29, 1999, p. 5, quoting Colombia's police intelligence director, Col. Oscar Naranjo.

50 See infra, Chapter 9.

51 Thomson Adam, "Mafia Links Boost Colombia Cocaine Exports," FIN. TIMES, Nov. 29, 1999, p. 5.

52 Douglas Farah, "Colombian Rebels Tap E. Europe for Arms; Guerrillas' Firepower Superior to Army's," WASH. POST, November 4, 1999, p. A1. Thomson Adam, "Mafia Links Boost Colombia Cocaine Exports," FIN. TIMES, Nov. 29, 1999, p. 5.

53 CSIS, RUSSIAN ORGANIZED CRIME: GLOBAL ORGANIZED CRIME PROJECT, (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1997) p. 6.

54 Id.

55 Id. In Prague on May 11, 2000, Freeh announced plans to open an FBI office there, accepting a 1994 offer from Vaclav Havel. Czech police, and those from 25 other nations, have attended an FBI training center in Budapest that has been open for five years. "FBI to open office in Czech capital," Czech news agency CTK via BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING, May 12, 2000. While the FBI has 38 offices around the world in which agents are assigned to U.S. embassies, it announced the opening of its first permanent office abroad in Budapest in February to concentrate on Russian organized crime. "FBI to open its first office abroad in Hungary," Associated Press, Feb. 22, 2000.

56 "Yavlinsky on Russian Economic Data, Political Corruption," INTERFAX, Sept. 21, 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, FBIS-SOV-97-264.

57 "Prospects for the Russian Economy," presentation by Yevgeny Yasin at the Nixon Center, Sept. 13, 1999.

58 Deputy Secretary Strobe Talbott, testimony before the House International Relations Committee, Oct. 19, 1999.

59 CSIS, RUSSIAN ORGANIZED CRIME: GLOBAL ORGANIZED CRIME PROJECT, (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1999) p. 12, 13-14.

60 Michael Dobbs and Paul Blustein, "Lost Illusions About Russia; U.S. Backers of Ill-Fated Reforms Now Portrayed as Naïve," WASH. POST, Sept. 12, 1999, p. A1.

61 "American University Transnational Crime and Corruption Center's Organized Crime Watch," Vol. 1, No. 3, (Mar./Apr. 1999) pp. 21-22.

62 Study by the All-Russia Center for the Study of Public Opinion, Apr. 14-17, 2000, results posted on www.polit.ru, Apr. 21, 2000.

63 Aaron Lukas and Gary Dempsey, "Mafia Capitalism or Red Legacy in Russia?", CATO Institute, Mar. 4, 2000, p. 3. See also CSIS, RUSSIAN ORGANIZED CRIME: GLOBAL ORGANIZED CRIME PROJECT, (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1997) p. 20 ("The perception of a state in chaos has fueled ... the yearning of many Russians--especially the older generation--for a return to ... authoritarian and paternalistic forms of governance ... . This desire, attributable in large part although not exclusively to the surge of [Organized Crime], may yet impel the Russian people to surrender their new political freedom and opt for a return to the familiar authoritarian institutions of the past.").

64 "Money would go into the central bank; a hundred million dollars would go in, and the Russian Mob would walk out with $105 million." Robert Friedman, NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO, May 3, 2000.

65 "Most Russians Not Confident of Police Protection," Itar-TASS, June 7, 2000, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, FBIS- 2000-0607.

 

Chapter 8

1 Remarks by Lawrence Summers at a U.S.-Russia Business Council Conference, Apr. 1, 1997. While Kirienko was not well-known, it did not take the Clinton administration long to get behind him. "This is a good news day for Russia and for the United States," President Clinton said in response to his confirmation as Prime Minister. "We have a high opinion of [Kirienko]." David Hoffman, "Third Vote Confirms Kirienko as new Russian Premier," WASH. POST, Apr. 25, 1998, p. A1. What the President failed to realize, however, was that Yeltsin's threat to dissolve the Duma if it did not confirm Kirienko fatally undermined the new Russian government's relations with the parliament, making it impossible to pass the very reforms being advocated. Even after the consequences of Yeltsin's threat became clear, U.S. officials remained outwardly optimistic, as evidenced by Secretary Rubin's correspondence with the U.S. Congress and elsewhere. Kirienko was ousted barely five months later.

2 Paul Blustein, "IMF Battens Down For More Ill Wind," WASH. POST, July 29, 1998, p. A16.

3 Sharon LaFraniere, "Russian Bailout Fails To Ease Market Fears," WASH. POST, July 28, 1998, p. A1.

4 Celestine Bohlen, "Ruble's Crash Sets Off Boom in Survival Strategies," N.Y. TIMES, Aug. 30, 1998, p. A1.

5 Celestine Bohlen, "As Ruble Crashes, Hangover Hurts a Lot," N.Y. TIMES, Sept. 9, 1998. p. A12.

6 Michael Gordon, "Russia's Communists Add to Pressure on Yeltsin," N.Y. TIMES, Sept. 10, 1998, p. A1.

7 Alan Philips, "Stoic Russians watch savings disappear again as the rouble [sic] plunges to new lows," DAILY TELEGRAPH, Sept. 5, 1998, p. 13.

8 Boris Aliabyev, "Searching for ATM Cash a New Pastime," MOSCOW TIMES, Aug. 21, 1998.

9 KOMMERSANT DAILY, Sept. 3, 1998.

10 ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT (Washington, D.C.: 2000), p. 364.

11 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Transition Report 1999, p. 75.

12 Non-payment of wages spread throughout the entire population, much of which had already seen wages withheld. Many doctors, teachers, and factory workers had gone unpaid for months prior to the August 1998 crash. Celestine Bohlen, "Ruble Down, Prices Up: A Russian City Flinches," N.Y. TIMES, Aug. 23, 1998, p. A3.

13 Peter Boone and Simon Johnson, "Russia After Yeltsin: Economic Alternatives: Boom or Bust or Both," paper prepared for "Russia Post Yeltsin," Wye River Conference, Aug. 19-20, 1999.

14 GOSKOMSTAT, Sotsialno-Ekonomicheskoye Polozhenie Rossiii.

15 BISNIS, Department of Commerce,

www.bisnis.doc.gov/bisnis/country/000225russiaovw-partl.htm.

16 Michael Wines, "As Ruble Falls, Moscow Unravels Faster and Faster," N.Y. TIMES, Sept. 4, 1998, p. A4.

17 "1999 Country Reports on Economic Policy and Trade Practices," Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs, U.S. Department of State, March 2000; Peter Boone and Simon Johnson, "Russia After Yeltsin: Economic Alternatives: Boom or Bust or Both" Paper prepared for "Russia Post Yeltsin," Wye River Conference, Aug. 19-20, 1999.

18 "Trading on Russian stock market is suspended," AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE, Sept. 17, 1998.

19 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Transition Report 1999, p. 75.

20 Christia Freeland, "How Bad Can It Get?," FIN. TIMES, Sept. 2, 1998, p. 14.

21 Christia Freeland, "Rouble [sic] plunges to 13.46 against dollar," FIN. TIMES, Sept. 4, 1998, p. 1.

22 Timothy O'Brien, "As Banks Falter, Russians Search for their Savings," N.Y. TIMES, Sept. 6, 1998, p. A6.

23 Mark Whitehouse, Betsy McKay, Bob Davis and Steve Liseman, "Bear Tracks: In a Financial Gamble, Russia Lets Ruble Fall, Stalls Debt Repayment," WALL ST. J., Aug. 18, 1998, p. A1.

24 Michael Gordon, "As Ruble Withers, Russians Survive on Barter," N.Y. TIMES, Sept. 6, 1998, p. A6.

25 Clifford Gaddy and Barry Ickes, "What Went Wrong: Russia's Virtual Economy," ANALYSIS OF CURRENT EVENTS, Sept./Oct. 1998.

26 Celestine Bohlen, "Ruble Down, Prices Up: A Russian City Flinches," N.Y. TIMES, Aug. 23, 1998, p. A3.

27 Richard Paddock, "Russia Shelves Rhetoric to Accept U.S. Food Aid," L.A. TIMES, Dec. 24, 1998, p. A1.

28 Oksana Yablokova, "Population Takes Biggest Plunge Yet," MOSCOW TIMES, Jan. 26, 2000.

29 Daniel Williams, "Russian Crisis Sapping Health Care System," WASH. POST, Sept. 10, 1998, p. A26.

30 The population fell 0.02% in 1992, 0.2% in 1993, 0.04% in 1994, 0.2% in 1995, and 0.3% in 1996, 1997, and 1998, and another of 0.5% in 1999. Oksana Yablokova, "Population Takes Biggest Plunge Yet," MOSCOW TIMES, Jan. 26, 2000.

31 CIA World Fact Book, 1999.

32 Murray Feshback, "A Sick and Shrinking Nation," WASH. POST, Oct. 24, 1999, p. B7.

33 Murray Feshback, "Drink, disease and depression eat away at Russian population," AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE, Feb. 22, 2000, p. B7.

34 CIA World Fact Book, 1999.

35 FRONTLINE, Public Broadcasting Service, May 9, 2000.

36 Oksana Yablokova, "Population Takes Biggest Plunge Yet," MOSCOW TIMES, Jan. 26, 2000.

37 Id.

38 Murray Feshback, "An AIDS Catastrophe," MOSCOW TIMES, Jan. 14, 2000.

39 Political Risk Services, "Report on Russian Social Conditions," May 1, 2000.

40 Lee Hockstader, "IMF, Russia Set Loan for $10 Billion," WASH. POST, Feb. 23, 1996, p. A1.

41 Michael Gordon, "Russia and IMF Agree on a Loan for $10.2 Billion," N.Y. TIMES, Feb. 23, 1996, p. A1.

42 "Approach Used to Monitor Conditions for Financial Assistance," General Accounting Office Report to Congress, June 1999 (GGD/NSIAD-99-168), pp. 144-145.

43 Id.

44 See, for example, "To Buy a Russian Election," WASH. TIMES, Mar. 28, 1996, p. A18; "No IMF Loans to Russia," Executive Memorandum, The Heritage Foundation, Feb. 16, 1996; Charles Krauthammer, "It's Their Economy, Stupid," WASH. POST, Feb. 8, 1996, p. A21.

45 Secretary Summers testified before the Speaker's Advisory Group that the Clinton administration consistently urged Russia to increase revenues. Meeting with the Speaker's Advisory Group on Russia, June 28, 2000.

46 According to EBRD statistics, the budget deficit as a percent of GDP was 8.6% in 1996, 7.6% in 1997, and 8.0% in 1998. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Transition Report 1999, p. 75.

47 Clifford Gaddy and Barry Ickes, "What Went Wrong: Russia's Virtual Economy," ANALYSIS OF CURRENT EVENTS, Sept./Oct. 1998.

48 Id.

49 Id.

50 Id.

51 Id.

52 Id.

53 Peter Rutland, "Western Policy and the Failure of the Economic Transition in Russia," Jamestown Foundation Conference Paper, June 1999, p. 9. "Russia Sets 80% Limit for Wednesday GKO Primary Yields," Interfax, July 8, 1998. The 100% rate was in secondary trading. Yields reached 50% at the end of May. "GKO Yield Curve," Capital Markets Russia, May 28, 1998.

54 Id.

55 Peter Rutland, "Western Policy and the Failure of the Economic Transition in Russia," Jamestown Foundation Conference Paper, June 1999, p. 9.

56 Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, testimony before the House Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, Mar. 18, 1999.

57 Martin Crutsinger, "U.S. Hopeful Russia Will Get Loans," Associated Press, May 27, 1998.

58 Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, meeting with the Speaker's Advisory Group on Russia, June 28, 2000.

59 Remarks by John Odling-Smee at a press conference, July 13, 1998.

60 Press Briefing by Mike McCurry, July 13, 1998.

61 Clifford Gaddy and Barry Ickes, "What Went Wrong: Russia's Virtual Economy," ANALYSIS OF CURRENT EVENTS, Sept./Oct. 1999.

62 Michael Gordon and David Sanger, "The Bailout of the Kremlin: How U.S. Pressed the I.M.F.," N.Y. TIMES, July 17, 1998, p. A1.

63 Id.

64 Statement by the President of the United States, May 31, 1998.

65 "Russian Government Officially Cancelled Auction for Sale of Rosneft," KOMMERSANT DAILY, Nov. 5, 1998, p. 7.

66 Memorandum of the Government of the Russian Federation and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on Economic and Financial Stabilization Policies at

http://www.imf.org/external/country/RUS/index.htm.

67 Statement by the President of the United States, May 31, 1998.

68 Patrice Hill, "Russia loses $800 million from IMF," WASH. TIMES, July 21, 1998, p. A1.

69 "More records fall as Russia surges," FIN. TIMES, July 15, 1998, p. 50.

70 John Thornhill and Jeremy Grant, "Russian markets hit by austerity package doubts," FIN. TIMES, July 28, 1998, p. 1.

71 "More records fall as Russia surges," FIN. TIMES, July 15, 1998, p. 50

72 "Yeltsin sacks security chief and orders Gazprom sell-off," FIN. TIMES, July 27, 1998, p. 1.

73 Michael Wines, "Foreign Investors Need Good News, Top Russian Official Says," N.Y. TIMES, July 29, 1998, p. A2.

74 Letter from Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin to Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, July 28, 1998.

75 Paul Blustein, "IMF Battens Down For More Ill Wind," WASH. POST, July 29, 1998, p. A16.

76 "Russia's Tumble Continues," Reuters, Aug. 19, 1998.

77 Paul Blustein, "Rescue Of Russian Economy Failing; Experts Predict New Bailout Effort," WASH. POST, July 14, 1998, p. A1.

78 Daniel Williams, "Russian Banks Stop Loans to One Another," WASH. POST, Aug. 13, 1998, p. A23.

79 Art Pine, "Pressure is Mounting for Russian Reforms," L.A. TIMES, Aug. 15, 1998, p. A8.

80 "The next Russian bail-out," THE ECONOMIST, Aug. 15, 1998, p. 60.

81 Celestine Bohlen, "Russia Acts to Fix Shrinking Finances," N.Y. TIMES, Aug. 18, 1998, p. A1.

82 Mark Whitehouse, Betsy McKay, Bob Davis, and Steve Liseman, "Bear Tracks: In a Financial Gamble, Russia Lets Ruble Fall, Stalls Debt Repayment," WALL ST. J., Aug. 18, 1998, p. A1.

83 Sylvia Nasar, "Denied Western Funds, Russia Makes Its Choices," N.Y. TIMES, Aug. 18, 1998, p. A8.

84 The Russian government's revised Foreign Policy Concept, approved by President Putin on June 28, 2000, appears to reflect a distinctly jaundiced view of "[g]lobalization of the world economy", which is described as bringing not only "additional possibilities for socio-economic progress" but also "new dangers, especially for economically weak states, and increase[d] ... probability of large-scale financial and economic crises." The Concept continues, "There is a growing risk of dependence of the economic system and information environment of the Russian Federation on outside impact." The growing role of international economic and political institutions like 'Group of Eight,' the IMF, the World Bank, and others" is described immediately thereafter.

85 Testimony of Robert Rubin before the House Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, Mar. 18, 1999.

86 Richard Paddock, "Russia Plays Loose with IMF Billions," L.A. TIMES, Sept. 24, 1998, p. A1.

87 David Kramer, "It may be the summit of embarrassment," BOSTON GLOBE, Aug. 30, 1998, p. E2.

88 GOSKOMSTAT, Sotsialno-Ekonomicheskoye Polozhenie Rossiii, March 2000, in Jamestown Foundation "Monitor Report," June 20, 2000.

89 Stefan Wagstyl, "Further reform needed to consolidate gains," FIN. TIMES, May 10, 2000, p. II

90 Guy Chazan and Jeanne Whalen, "Russia's Miniboom May be Sustainable," WALL ST. J., May 17, 2000, p. A23.

 

Chapter 9

1 Indeed, the defense and military-industrial sectors have been excluded from Russian privatization plans almost from the outset.

2 See Chapter 10 infra.

3 CSIS, RUSSIAN ORGANIZED CRIME: GLOBAL ORGANIZED CRIME PROJECT, (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1997) pp. 32, 1.

4 Id. at 32, 1. After the 1996 agreement ending the first Chechen war, the Yeltsin government promised funds for the reconstruction of Chechnya and established a Commission for the Restoration of the Chechen Economy under chairmanship of Soskovets, whom Fortune magazine called "the most powerful man under Yeltsin until mid-1996." FORTUNE, June 12, 2000. The reconstruction money--16.2 trillion rubles in reconstruction funds, and an additional one billion dollars in foreign loans that Yeltsin's decree also dedicated to this purpose--was "plundered by Soskovets and his allies." The citizens of Chechnya never saw any reconstruction; electricity, water, and heating fuel were never restored, and housing destroyed or damaged during the war was never reconstructed. "Nowhere has the level of corruption been more scandalous." John B. Dunlop, "Sifting through the Rubble of the Yeltsin Years," paper presented at Jamestown Foundation Conference "Russia: What Went Wrong? Which Way Now?", June 9-10, 2000.

5 Maura Reynolds, "Commandos Show Who's Got Power," L.A. TIMES, June 28, 2000, p. A8. Once before, in September 1995, troops forced two electricity substations to restore power to a nuclear submarine base in the northern Kola Peninsula, where electricity had been cut off because of unpaid bills. Id. See also Pavel Felgengauer, "Budget Fray Begins to Boil," MOSCOW TIMES, June 29, 2000 ("Several years ago the power supply of the huge underground command center of the Strategic Missile Forces west of Moscow was also cut off; the military was forced to activate emergency power generators.") See Dale Herspring, "The Russian Military Faces Creeping Disintegration," DEMOKRATIZATSIYA, Fall 1999, pp. 573-86 (By 1998 only 30% of Russia's weapons were modern, versus 60-80% for NATO; on current trends, by 2005 only 5-7% of Russian weapons will be new); Stuart Goldman, "Russian Conventional Armed Forces: On the Verge of Collapse?", CRS Report for Congress, Sept. 4, 1997, pp. 2-3 ("A clear consensus has emerged among specialists ... that Russian conventional military capabilities have been degraded to such an extent that the armed forces face the possibility of collapse or implosion if present trends continue much longer ... Russian expert assessments of the Russian military tend to be even more negative than American assessments." (Footnotes omitted.)).

6 Dale Herspring, "The Russian Military Faces Creeping Disintegration," DEMOKRATIZATSIYA, Fall 1999, p. 576 (footnotes omitted). "In October 1998 ... a major and a lieutenant colonel committed suicide in Moscow. An investigation revealed that their families were starving and both officers knew that if they committed suicide their families would get their death benefits." Id. p. 577-78 (footnote omitted). In mid-1998, 110,000 soldiers and 160,000 discharged servicemen were without housing. Id. p. 579.

7 "In Russia, a Big Effort to Evade the Draft," Scripps Howard News Service, May 24, 2000, citing the Russian Soldiers' Mothers' Committee.

8 State Department Annual Report on Military Expenditures, 1998.

9 Stuart Goldman, "Russian Conventional Armed Forces: On the Verge of Collapse?", CRS Report for Congress, Sept. 4, 1997, p. 4. Regarding the "dying fleet," for example, the subsequent fate of the Kursk, which may have been doomed by the inadequate training and infrequent exercises of the Northern Fleet, is not the only example. The first two Sovremenny-class destroyers purchased by the PRC's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) were originally laid down for the Russian Navy but instead were sold. Trevor Hollingsbee, "Sovremenny delivery will give PLAN a bigger sabre to rattle over Taiwan," JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW, Jan. 1, 2000.

10 Dale Herspring, "The Russian Military Faces Creeping Disintegration," DEMOTRAKIZATSIYA, Fall 1999, p. 574 (footnotes omitted).

11 Stuart Goldman, "Russian Conventional Armed Forces: On the Verge of Collapse?", CRS Report for Congress, Sept. 4, 1997, p. 8.

12 Dale Herspring, "The Russian Military Faces Creeping Disintegration," DEMOKRATIZATSIYA, Fall 1999, p. 574 (footnotes omitted).

13 Nikolai Novichkov, "Russia Expands Strategic Bomber Fleet on Completion of START II Ratification," JANE'S DEFENSE WEEKLY, May 17, 2000.

14 An ongoing dispute among senior officers in the Russian military involving a number of issues, including to some extent allocation of resources, has received widespread attention recently in the Russian and foreign press. David Hoffman, "Russian Defense Chief Vetoes Cuts to Rocket Forces," WASH. POST, July 14, 2000, p. A16. See Chapter 10 infra.

15 Pavel Felgengauer, "Both Sides of Battle Right," MOSCOW TIMES, July 20, 2000.

16 Lt. Gen. Patrick Hughes, USA, Director, DIA, testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Feb. 3, 1999.

17 Pavel Felgengauer, "Both Sides of Battle Right," MOSCOW TIMES, July 20, 2000.

18 Nikolai Sokov, "Russia--A Conflict of Strategic Interests," JANE'S DEFENSE WEEKLY, Aug. 2, 2000.

19 Id.

20 Pavel Felgengauer, "Limited Nuclear War? Why Not," DEFENSE AND SECURITY, May 6, 1999, p. 1.

21 Nikolai Novichkov, "Russia Expands Strategic Bomber Fleet on Completion of START II Ratification," JANE'S DEFENSE WEEKLY, May 17, 2000.

22 Igor Khripunov, "Last Leg of Triad; Russia's Strategic Rocket Force," BULLETIN OF ATOMIC SCIENTISTS, July 1, 2000, p. 58.

23 Dana Priest, "Russian Bombers Make Iceland Foray; U.S. Jets Intercept 2 Planes Near NATO Ally; Moscow Defends Exercises," WASH. POST, July 1, 1999, p. A1.

24 Id.

25 Stuart Goldman, "Russian Conventional Armed Forces: On the Verge of Collapse?", CRS Report for Congress, Sept. 4, 1997, p. 17.

26 Richard Staar, "The Bear Sharpens its Claws," HOOVER DIGEST 1997, No. 4. For a more extended discussion of the implications of these facilities see Chapter 10 infra.

27 Rear Admiral L.E. Jacoby, Director of Naval Intelligence, statement before the Seapower Subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee on "Submarine Warfare in the 21st Century," Apr. 13, 1999.

28 Id.

29 Stuart Goldman, "Russian Conventional Armed Forces: On the Verge of Collapse?", CRS Report for Congress, Sept. 4, 1997, p. 8.

30 "Nuclear Nonproliferation: Status of U.S. Efforts to Improve Nuclear Material Controls in Newly Independent States," GAO/NSIAD/RCED-86-89, Mar. 8, 1996.

31 "Idled Arms Experts in Russia pose Threat; Many Take Talents to Developing States," WASH. POST, Dec. 28, 1998, p. A1.

32 Jonathan B. Tucker and Kathleen M. Vogel, "Preventing the proliferation of Chemical and Biological Weapon Materials and Know-How," NONPROLIFERATION REVIEW, Spring 2000, p. 88.

33 Id.

34 Dale Herspring, "The Russian Military Faces Creeping Disintegration," DEMOKRATIZATSIYA, Fall 1999, p. 575 (footnote omitted).

35 Pavel Felgengauer, "Defense Dossier: The Arms Bazaar Beckons," MOSCOW TIMES, September 24, 1998 ("Russia could cancel the 1995 memorandum that effectively stopped the signing of new arms contracts with Iran. Russia could begin totally unrestricted sales of the most advanced weapons to the Middle East. This would bring in much-needed money and create jobs in Russia depressed defense industry.").

36 Stuart Goldman, Kenneth Katzman, Robert Shuey, and Carl E. Behrens, "Russian Missile Technology and Nuclear Reactor Transfers to Iran," CRS Report for Congress, Dec. 14, 1998, p. 3.

37 Id.

38 Bill Gertz, "Russia Disregards Pledge to Curb Iran Missile Output; Tehran, Moscow Sign Pacts for Additional Support," WASH. TIMES, May 22, 1997, p. A3.

39 BILL GERTZ , BETRAYAL (Washington, D.C.: Regnery, 1999), p. 173.

40 Id.

41 Kenneth Timmerman, "The Russian Missiles We Could Have Stopped," testimony before House Committee on International Relations, Oct. 6, 1999.

42 BILL GERTZ , BETRAYAL (Washington, D.C.: Regnery, 1999), p. 173.

43 Report of Proliferation-Related Acquisition in 1997, submitted to Congress by the Director of Central Intelligence.

44 BILL GERTZ , BETRAYAL (Washington, D.C.: Regnery, 1999), p. 173.

45 Bill Gertz, "Russian says U.S. staged missile sting; Berger discloses evidence of continuing sales to Iran," WASH. TIMES, June 23, 1998, p. A1.

46 Executive Summary of the Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, July 15, 1998.

47 George Tenet, Director of Central Intelligence, testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, hearing on "Threats to National Security," Feb. 2, 1999.

48 The entities sanctioned were INOR Scientific Center, Grafit, Polyus Scientific Production Associates, Glavkosmos, the MOSO company, Baltic State Technical University, and Europalace 2000. On January12, 1999, the Administration sanctioned three additional Russian entities believed to be assisting Iran's missile and nuclear programs. The three entities sanctioned were NIKIET (Scientific Research and Design Institute of Power Technology), the D. Mendeleyev University of Chemical Technology, and the Moscow Aviation Institute.

49 CIA Nonproliferation Center, Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, Feb. 2, 2000. The subsequent CIA report on WMD proliferation during the latter half of 1999, released on August 9, 2000, confirmed that during that period "[e]ntities in Russia, North Korea, and China continue to supply the largest amount of ballistic missile-related goods, technology, and expertise to Iran." CIA Nonproliferation Center, Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Related to Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 July-31 December 1999," Aug. 9, 2000.

50 Kenneth Katzman, "IB93033: Iran: Current Developments and U.S. Policy," CRS Report for Congress, May 5, 2000.

51 Bill Gertz, "Russia, China Aid Iran's Missile Program," WASH. TIMES, Sept. 10, 1997, p. A1. The consensus of Western experts is that the missile has only military purposes. "Iran Missile for Military, Not Civilian Use-Jane's," Reuters, Feb. 16, 1999.

52 Kenneth Timmerman, "The Russian Missiles We Could Have Stopped," testimony before House Committee on International Relations, Oct. 6, 1999.

53 Audrey Hudson, "Analyst fears U.S. helps Iran develop missile via Moscow," WASH. TIMES, July 14, 1999, p. A10.

54 In 1987, at the request of the United States, the G-7 nations established the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). The MTCR is an informal arrangement consisting of guidelines for the transfer of sensitive missile technology, including an annex of controlled items. Member nations agree to adopt the guidelines as national policy and agree to control missile and technology transfers through export controls. Thirty-two nations are members of the MTCR. Russia joined the MTCR on Aug. 8, 1995.

55 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran: Current Developments and U.S. Policy," CRS Report for Congress, May 5, 2000.

56 "Ministry Plans to Build Reactors for Iran, India," B.B.C. SUMMARY OF WORLD BROADCASTS, April 14, 2000, translation of IZVESTIYA, Apr. 4, 2000.

57 James Risen, Judith Miller, "C.I.A. tells Clinton an Iranian A-Bomb Can't be Ruled Out," N.Y. TIMES, Jan. 17, 2000, p. A1.

58 Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions 1 July Through 31 Dec. 1999, p. 10.

59 Judith Miller , William J. Broad, "The Germ Warriors, A Special Report. Iranians, Bioweapons in Mind, Lure Needy Ex-Soviet Scientists," N.Y. TIMES, Dec. 8, 1998, p. A1.

60 Ed Blanche, "War of attrition as Iraq absorbs the ongoing US punishment," JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW, June 1, 1999.

61 Jamie Dettmer, "Russians said to sell missiles to Saddam; Arms deals would flout U.N. embargo," WASH. TIMES, Feb. 22, 1999, p. A1.

62 Kenneth Katzman, "Iraqi Compliance with Cease-Fire Agreements," CRS Report for Congress, May 10, 2000.

63 R. Jeffrey Smith, "Did Russia Sell Iraq Germ Warfare Equipment? Document Seized by U.N. Inspectors Indicates Illicit Deal," WASH. POST, February 12, 1998, p. A1.

64 TOM MANGOLD AND JEFF GOLDBERG, PLAGUE WARS (St. Martins Press, New York: Feb. 2000), p. 162.

65 Id., p. 209; Sonni Efron, "Russia Investigates Alleged Chemical Arms Smuggling," L.A. TIMES, Oct. 25, 1995, p. A4.

66 Steven Lee Myers, "Led By U.S., Arms Sales Surge Globally," N.Y. TIMES, Aug. 21, 2000, p. A9.

67 "Is Vladimir Putin the Salesman with a Hidden Agenda?" JANE'S DEFENCE INDUSTRY, May 1, 2000 ("[Thirty-two percent] of Russia's arms exports go to Iran, Algeria, Greece, the United Arab Emirates and Vietnam. Russia is also revitalising exports to dormant countries such as Malaysia, Libya, Syria, and Ethiopia. It is attempting to break away from its traditional spheres of influence by negotiating contracts with Brazil, Columbia, Greece, Kuwait, and Turkey ... Russia has also signed military-technical collaboration deals with Bangladesh, Malaysia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, and Ukraine.").

68 Judith Matloff, "Russia Cranks Up Arm Production, Sales," CHRSTN. SCI. MONITOR, Dec. 29, 1999, p. 1.

69 The Russian arms export firms Promexport and Rossiiskiye Teknologii were merged pursuant to a Presidential Decree in April 2000.

70 "Is Vladimir Putin the Salesman with a Hidden Agenda?" JANE'S DEFENCE INDUSTRY, May 1, 2000.

71 Id.

72 For Russian arms and technology transfers to the PRC, see Chapter 11 infra.

73 Judith Matloff, "Russia Cranks Up Arm Production, Sales," CHRISTIAN SCI. MONITOR, Dec. 29, 1999, p. 1.

74 Simon Saradzhyan, "Countries Race for Russian Weapons," ST. PETERSBURG TIMES, July 9, 1999.

75 "Russia Resumes Arms Sales to Syria," BBC translation of VREMYA NOVOSTEY, Apr. 14, 2000.

76 "Is Vladimir Putin the salesman with a hidden agenda?," JANE'S DEFENCE INDUSTRY, May 1, 2000.

77 "Konkurs Licensed Production Approved," INFORMATION ACCESS CO., May 5, 2000.

78 "Russian Arms Sales in 1997," MOSCOW TIMES, Nov. 17, 1998.

79 Douglas Davis, "Russia to upgrade Iraqi air-defense system," JERUSALEM POST, Apr. 17, 2000.

80 Mikhail Kozyrev, "Act On Proliferation," KOMMERSANT DAILY, Russian Press Digest, RUSSICA Information Inc., RusData DiaLine, May 11, 2000, p. 1.

81 Id.

82 "Russia's Leading Arms Trader's Orders to Hit 12 Billion Dollars," Agence France Presse, June 23, 2000.

83 Steven Erlanger, "U.S. Telling Russia to Bar Aid to Iran by Arms Experts," WASH. POST, Aug. 22, 1997, p. A1.

84 David Hoffman, "Idled Arms Experts in Russia Post Threat; Many Take Talents to Developing States," WASH. POST, Dec. 28, 1998, p. A1.

 

Chapter 10

1 Russia has been conservatively estimated to possess 21,980 of the world's 33,600 nuclear warheads, some 65% of the global total. The United States possesses less than half of the Russian total. ( "Non-Proliferation Project: Nuclear Numbers--Worldwide Nuclear Weapons Stockpile," the Carnegie Endowment, Aug. 21, 2000. http://www.ceip.org/files/projects/npp/NuclearNumbers/index.htm)

2 "World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserves, January 1, 1999," U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Agency, posted at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/info_glance/resources.html.

3 James Billington, "Russia: Between a Dream and a Nightmare," N.Y. TIMES, June 1, 1998, p. A31.

4 Three-quarters of the American public believe that productive relations with Russia consistent with the national interest are a vital interest of the United States. Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, "America's National Interests," July 2000.

5 Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, address to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Sept. 16, 1999.

6 See supra, Chapter 4.

7 Anatoly Shub, "Many Russians Still Admire America, but More and More Disapprove of U.S. Foreign Policies," USIA Office of Research and Media Reaction Opinion Analysis, M-31-99, Mar. 23, 1999, p.2.

8 "Opinion Analysis: Russians' Mistrust of the U.S. At New High," Department of State Office of Research, March 14, 2000, p. 1 (among the 75% of Russians surveyed who claim to follow international affairs).

9 Anatoly Shub, "Many Russians Still Admire America, but More and More Disapprove of U.S. Foreign Policies," USIA Office of Research and Media Reaction Opinion Analysis, M-31-99, Mar. 23, 1999, p. 2.

10 Presentation of Hon. James Billington, Librarian of Congress, before the Speaker's Advisory Group on Russia , June 14, 2000.

11 "Opinion Analysis: Russians' Mistrust of the U.S. At New High," Department of State Office of Research, Mar. 14, 2000, p. 1.

12 Id.

13 Id. at 2.

14 Id. at 4.

15 Michael McFaul, "Russia's Many Foreign Policies," DEMOKRATIZATSIYA, Summer 1999, p. 405. This polling occurred during U.S.-Russian tensions over Kosovo.

16 Paul Goble, Communications Division Director, RFE/RL, testimony before the House International Relations Committee, hearing on "the U.S. and Russia: Assessing the Relationship," July 16, 1998, p. 115 ("As those of you who traveled to Russia during Soviet times will certainly recall, ordinary Russians were remarkably pro-American and pro-Western ... . That attitude, unfortunately, is changing and changing fast. Ever more Russians