DATE=6/12/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=ISRAEL'S VIEW OF THE CHANGES IN SYRIA
NUMBER=5-46484
BYLINE=MEREDITH BUEL
DATELINE=JERUSALEM
CONTENT=
VOICE AT:

INTRO:  Israeli analysts are predicting a relatively 
smooth transition of power in Syria, but say it is  
not  yet clear if Bashar al-Assad, the son of the late 
President Hafez al-Assad, will be able to hold onto 
the power he is inheriting from his father.  V-O-A's 
Meredith Buel reports, analysts also are expressing 
cautious optimism that the new government in Damascus 
will be more flexible during negotiations on the 
Middle East peace process. 

TEXT:  Israeli analysts say there is virtually  no  
doubt Bashar al-Assad will follow in his late father's 
footsteps and become the new president of Syria.

They say Hafez al-Assad's son has been groomed for the 
post for years.  They point out the 34-year-old Bashar 
is more modern in style and more western in thought 
than his father, who ruled Syria with an iron hand for 
30-years.  

King Abdullah of Jordan says he and Bashar al-Assad 
represent a new generation of Arab leaders who are 
part of the "Internet generation."

Analysts say the late president's son has a reputation 
for honesty and modesty.

Tel Aviv University professor Eyal Zisser, who is 
considered an expert on Syria, says Basher al-Assad 
must  not  only inherit his father's power, but also 
his "killer instinct" to crush any opposition.

                  ///  ZISSER ACT ONE  ///

      It is  not  enough to know the Internet.  You 
      need to show that you are strong, that you are a 
      leader, and you need to crush in the first 
      moment any signs of opposition, resentment, or 
      independence.  If -- and this is the problem -- 
      if he is proven to be a weak leader, if he will 
      show the first sign of weakness, this will be 
      his end.

                    ///  END ACT  ///

Prime Minister Ehud Barak says the death of President 
Assad marks the end of an era, and Israel now faces a 
new Middle East.  Mr. Barak says Israel will continue 
to work for a peace agreement with the new leadership 
in Damascus.

A member of the Israeli opposition Likud Party, Uzi 
Landau, says the region has entered a period of 
uncertainty.

                  ///  LANDAU ACT  ///

      We now have to see what will happen with Bashar 
      al-Assad, whether he really is going to be the 
      future leader of Syria.  How long will it take 
      him to consolidate his leadership and his power 
      over Syria?  All that still involves quite an 
      amount of uncertainty.

                   ///  END ACT  ///

Prime Minister Barak is expressing hope the Israeli-
Lebanese border will remain quiet after last month's 
withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from south Lebanon.

Syria maintains 35-thousand troops in Lebanon and is 
considered the main power broker in that country.

Analyst Yossi Olmert says a critical question is 
whether Bashar al-Assad can control Lebanese guerrilla 
groups, like Hezbollah, which in the past have fought 
against Israel.

                  ///  OLMERT ACT  ///

      That remains to be seen, whether Bashar will be 
      able to exert his authority and the authority of 
      Syria over all kinds of splinter groups in 
      Lebanon -- even groups like the Hezbollah, or 
      other smaller groups.  [It remains to be seen] 
      that Bashar will be authoritative enough to make 
      sure the Lebanese government will  not  take an 
      independent course of action, because we know 
      the Lebanese are being tempted to do it.  They 
      really want to do something else.  They do  not  
      want to continue being subjugated by the 
      Syrians.  That remains to be seen, and for me, 
      Lebanon is the real missing element in all this.

                  ///  END ACT  ///

President Hafez al-Assad died on the exact anniversary 
of the date Israel captured the Golan Heights from 
Syria during the 1967 Middle East war.

Peace talks between Israel and Syria broke down last 
January, when Damascus demanded a complete Israeli 
withdrawal from the Golan, including a narrow piece of 
land along the Sea of Galilee.

The Galilee is an important source of drinking water 
for Israelis.  If there is to be a withdrawal from the 
Golan, Prime Minister Barqak says, Israel must hold a 
security zone between the lake and the Syrian border.  
In Israel's view, this is the only major issue 
blocking a peace agreement.

Tel Aviv University professor Eyal Zisser says if 
Bashar al-Assad shows more flexibility than his 
father, a peace treaty could be negotiated quickly 
between Israel and Syria.

                  ///  ZISSER ACT TWO  ///

      Yes, we must say, we must admit [that] the 
      Israeli public at large, [and] of course the 
      Israeli government, expects Bashar to be more 
      flexible on the territorial issue.  Yes,  no  
      doubt about it.  Now this is a great moment for 
      the Syrians as well, great hope for change and 
      reforms inside Syria.  This is also a moment of 
      great hope for the people of Israel, for the 
      Israelis who want to seek a peace settlement 
      with Syria.

                   ///  END ACT  ///

Analysts say Bashar al-Assad is  not  likely to make 
any peace moves quickly, since his first priority will 
be to secure his power base in Damascus.

Still, Israel is already sending significant signals 
that once the transition of power is complete, there 
is renewed hope for successful peace negotiations with 
its Syrian neighbor.   (Signed)

NEB/MB/JWH/WTW



12-Jun-2000 17:57 PM EDT (12-Jun-2000 2157 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.