DATE=6/14/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=SYRIA / ARAB SUCCESSION
NUMBER=5-46501
BYLINE=LISA BRYANT
DATELINE=CAIRO
CONTENT=

VOICED AT:


INTRO:  With the son of Syria's late President Hafez 
al Assad poised to lead Syria, political experts 
believe that Bashar al-Assad may set a precedent in 
other Arab countries where aging presidents - not 
aging monarchs - are in command.  From Cairo, Lisa 
Bryant reports speculation is settling on a new crop 
of possible presidential heirs from Libya to Iraq. 

TEXT:  During a February leadership reorganization of 
Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party, a familiar 
name appeared on the new list for the general 
secretariat.  It was Gamal Mubarak, the 36-year-old 
son of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. 

The posting marked a quiet political debut for the 
younger Mubarak, a familiar face among Egypt's 
business elite.  But speculation has been simmering 
for years that the President's handsome, affable son 
was being groomed for a more prominent career. 

Egypt overthrew its monarchy in 1952, and President 
Mubarak has ruled out chances that either of his two 
sons could succeed him.  But since Bashar al-Assad has 
emerged as Syria's likely next president, analysts are 
taking a second look at Egypt.  According to Egyptian 
newspaper columnist Mohammed Sid Ahmed, almost 
anything seems possible in Arab politics today. 

            // SID AHMED ACT //

      At a time when thinking of such an issue was 
      unthinkable, it has become quite thinkable now.  
      The mood has changed, the world has changed, and 
      this is obviously happening. 

            // END ACT //

Now into his fourth, six-year term, the 72-year-old 
President Mubarak has never appointed a vice-
president.  But under the Egyptian constitution, the 
speaker of parliament would take over temporarily if 
Mr. Mubarak were to die in office.  Many experts 
expect a smooth leadership transition in Egypt, and 
say the next president would likely be selected by the 
military. 

But that has not stopped the Egyptian press from 
speculating on the political future of Gamal Mubarak.  
The president's younger son is a graduate of the 
American University in Cairo, and a spokesman for an 
Egyptian-American economic advisory group. 

// OPT //  Last year, Egyptian newspapers reported 
that the younger Mubarak might head a new political 
party, representing business interests.  Although the 
party never materialized, reports this year predict he 
may run for parliament. 

Prominent Egyptian businessman Ahmed Zayat is an 
acquaintance of Gamal Mubarak.  He says Egypt is not a 
monarchical system, and that Mr. Mubarak's name would 
count against him.  Nonetheless, Mr. Zayat believes 
the President's son would make a great leader. 

            // ZAYAT OPT ACT //

      Should his name be floated around, he is a 
      phenomenal candidate.  He would have tremendous 
      support from people, because he is very well 
      liked in Egypt. 

            // END ACT //

But international relations professor Tim Sullivan, 
from the American University in Cairo, says Gamal 
Mubarak will have to earn his political credentials. 

            // SULLIVAN OPT ACT ///

      He is a very bright, very articulate young man, 
      but he has not, up till now, been involved in 
      politics in any overt way.  So he would have to 
      run for parliament, he would have to be elected.  
      He would have to then appear in parliament and 
      do all the things.  He would have to be involved 
      in politics and be a public figure in his own 
      right.

            // END ACT //

            /// END OPT ///

Experts say father-to-son leadership successions - 
like the one that Syria faces - seem more likely in 
other Arab republics. 

In Iraq, President Saddam Hussein's two sons are 
reportedly jousting for the title of heir-apparent.  
Libyan leader Muammar Gadafi has never designated a 
successor, but Mr. Gadafi's two sons have been eyed as 
likely candidates.  Middle East experts say Yemen also 
offers the ingredients to become another political 
dynasty. 

Such scenarios were unthinkable half a century ago, 
when coups and nationalist movements swept a new Arab 
generation into power.  Monarchies in Libya, Egypt, 
and Yemen were toppled.  Leaders like Libya's Muammar 
Gadafi and Iraq's Saddam Hussein earned their 
political credentials as socialists.  Other leaders, 
like Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, rose from the ranks of 
military-dominated governments. 

But it is by no means certain that presidential sons 
from these countries may now inherit leadership 
positions.  In fact, Tim Sullivan, of the American 
University in Cairo, says it is not likely that other 
Arab republics will experience the smooth power 
transition that so far appears to be taking place in 
Syria. 

            // SULLIVAN ACT //

      As of right now, I think there would be a 
      struggle.  If there was a snap of the fingers 
      and something happens - the proverbial banana 
      peel - I think you would see a struggle in 
      Libya, you would see a struggle in Yemen, I 
      think you would see a struggle in Iraq.  And I 
      think that these struggles might well take place 
      in the street as well as other places. 

            // END ACT //

Mr. Sullivan says many Syrians may consider political 
continuity through Bashar al-Assad to be a good thing.  
But elsewhere in the Arab world, citizens may be 
looking for new political candidates to lead their 
countries.   (SIGNED)

NEB/LB/GE/RAE 



14-Jun-2000 13:42 PM EDT (14-Jun-2000 1742 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.