DATE=JANUARY 3, 1998



TYPE=ON THE LINE



NUMBER=1-00598 SHORT # 1 



TITLE= THE THREAT OF PROLIFERATION



EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037







CONTENT=     INSERTS AVAILABLE FROM AUDIO SERVICES







THEME:           UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE



ANNCR:           ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES 

                 POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES.



                 THIS WEEK, "THE THREAT OF PROLIFERATION."  HERE 

                 IS YOUR HOST, --------.



HOST:            HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE. MORE THAN 25 

                 COUNTRIES HAVE -- OR MAY BE DEVELOPING -- 

                 WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AND THE MEANS TO 

                 DELIVER THEM.  ROGUE NATIONS LIKE IRAN, IRAQ, 

                 AND LIBYA ARE WORKING TO OBTAIN NUCLEAR, 

                 BIOLOGICAL OR CHEMICAL WEAPONS BY ANY MEANS.  

                 TERRORIST GROUPS ARE ALSO SEEKING SUCH WEAPONS. 

                 THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES ARE TRYING TO 

                 COUNTER THIS THREAT. 



                 GARY MILHOLLIN IS DIRECTOR OF THE WISCONSIN 

                 PROJECT ON NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL. HE SAYS THAT 

                 IRAQ SHOWS HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO DETECT AND 

                 STOP A COUNTRY THAT IS DETERMINED TO BUILD 

                 WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. 



MILHOLLIN:       THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY INSPECTED

                 IRAQ BEFORE THE [GULF] WAR AND CITED IRAQ AS ONE

                 OF ITS BEST PUPILS. THE IRAQIS GOT STARS ACROSS 

                 THE PAGE FOR COMPLYING WITH ALL OF THE DEMANDS 

                 OF THE INSPECTORS, BUT THE INSPECTORS WERE ONLY 

                 INSPECTING SITES THAT IRAQ HAD DECLARED. AND SO 

                 YOU LITERALLY HAD A CASE WHERE THE INSPECTORS 

                 WERE GOING TO BUILDING "A" AND THE IRAQIS WERE 

                 ACTUALLY RUNNING A NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM IN 

                 BUILDING "B."  SO YOU HAVE TO BE VERY SKEPTICAL 

                 OF THE TENDENCY TO BELIEVE THAT YOU HAVE 

                 DISCOVERED EVERYTHING, ESPECIALLY NOW THAT 

                 SADDAM HAS SET UP WHAT AMOUNTS TO SANCTUARIES. 

                 HE'S CLAIMING THAT THESE LARGE INSTALLATIONS ARE

                 "PRESIDENTIAL SITES" AND HE'S BARRED INSPECTORS.

                 AND SO THE BIG QUESTION FACING US IN IRAQ IS 

                 WHETHER WE ARE GOING TO LET THAT GO BY, WHETHER 

                 WE ARE GOING TO ACCEPT THE IDEA THAT IRAQ HAS 

                 SANCTUARIES. IF WE DO, IT MEANS THAT HE'S GOING 

                 TO BE FREE, IN EFFECT, TO RECONSTITUTE ALL OF 

                 HIS PROGRAMS.



HOST:            PATRICK CLAWSON IS DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH AT THE 

                 WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY.  HE 

                 SAYS THAT A BIG PROBLEM IS THAT TECHNOLOGIES 

                 WITH LEGITIMATE CIVILIAN USES CAN ALSO BE USED 

                 TO MAKE WEAPONS.



CLAWSON:         AS THE FORMER CHAIRMAN OF THE U-N SPECIAL 

                 COMMISSION -- UNSCOM -- ROLF EKEUS, HAS 

                 COMMENTED, EVEN IF UNSCOM WERE TOTALLY 

                 SUCCESSFUL IN ITS TASK IN IRAQ, THAT STILL THE 

                 IRAQIS WOULD RETAIN THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THEY NEED

                 IN ORDER TO RECONSTITUTE THEIR PROGRAM AND THAT 

                 MUCH OF THE EQUIPMENT THAT THEY WOULD NEED TO 

                 RECONSTITUTE AT LEAST THEIR CHEMICAL AND 

                 BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAMS ARE ITEMS WHICH HAVE

                 LEGITIMATE USES. FOR INSTANCE, MAKING PESTICIDES

                 HAS CERTAIN SIMILARITIES WITH SOME OF THE 

                 CHEMICAL WEAPONS. AS A RESULT, MR. EKEUS HAS 

                 ARGUED THAT IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE TO RECONSTITUTE

                 AT LEAST ITS CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS 

                 WITHIN A PERIOD OF SOME MONTHS IF THE 

                 INSPECTIONS WERE TO END, EVEN IF THE INSPECTORS 

                 HAD BEEN TOTALLY SUCCESSFUL IN DETECTING ALL OF 

                 THE ACTIVITIES DURING THE COURSE OF THEIR 

                 INSPECTIONS.



HOST:            GARY MILHOLLIN SAYS THERE ARE WAYS TO IMPEDE 

                 EFFORTS BY ROGUE STATES TO ACQUIRE WEAPONS OF 

                 MASS DESTRUCTION.



MILHOLLIN:       THE LESSON OF IRAQ IS INTERESTING. THE IRAQIS 

                 WERE HELD UP IN THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM ON SEVERAL

                 FRONTS BECAUSE THEY COULDN'T BUY THINGS. THE 

                 INTERNATIONAL REGIMES FOR EXPORT CONTROL WERE 

                 SUCH THAT THE IRAQIS HAD TO REVERSE ENGINEER 

                 THINGS. THEY HAD TO UPGRADE LOWER PERFORMING 

                 ITEMS THAT THEY COULD BUY. THEY HAD TROUBLE WITH

                 QUALITY CONTROL. THEY HAD TO REINVENT THINGS 

                 THAT WERE SORT OF OLD HAT IN OTHER COUNTRIES 

                 BUT, IF NO ONE WOULD HELP THEM, THEY REALLY HAD 

                 TO SORT OF REINVENT EVERYTHING THEMSELVES. IT 

                 TOOK A LONG TIME AND FORTUNATELY SADDAM MADE THE

                 BLUNDER OF INVADING KUWAIT BEFORE HE HAD REACHED

                 THE FINISH LINE. SO WHAT WE CAN DO IS WE CAN 

                 MAKE IT DIFFICULT, TIME-CONSUMING AND EXPENSIVE 

                 FOR THESE COUNTRIES TO DO THIS, AND HOPE THAT 

                 THERE WILL BE A POLITICAL BREAKTHROUGH BEFORE 

                 THEY GET TO THE POINT WHERE THEY SUCCEED.



HOST:            PATRICK CLAWSON FROM THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE 

                 FOR NEAR EAST POLICY SAYS THAT SUCH DELAYING 

                 TACTICS MAY BE THE MOST FEASIBLE MEANS OF 

                 KEEPING COUNTRIES LIKE IRAQ AND IRAN FROM 

                 OBTAINING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.  FOR "ON 

                 THE LINE," THIS IS -------.



"                YOU'VE BEEN LISTENING TO "ON THE LINE" -- A 

                 DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES POLICIES AND 

                 CONTEMPORARY ISSUES.  THIS IS -------.











31-Dec-97 4:07 PM EST (2107 UTC)

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Source: Voice of America

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