DATE=04/19/01

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=BUSH FOREIGN POLICY TEAM

NUMBER=5-49341

BYLINE=JIM MALONE

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=YES

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: President Bush's foreign policy team has received generally high marks for its handling of the recent standoff with China over a U-S reconnaissance plane. But as V-O-A Correspondent Jim Malone reports, some foreign policy experts predict that it is only a matter of time before some of the strong personalities in the administration begin to clash.

TEXT: University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato says the president and his foreign policy team worked well together in their first major international test:

/// SABATO ACT ///

He delegated this to the right people, especially Colin Powell and Dick Cheney. The criticism that people are voicing is that Bush was not visible enough, he didn't project the role of a leader at a time of crisis. I think that is unfair. In fact, that kind of leadership projection can heighten tensions. And so, at a cost to his own image, he did the right thing and I think that is a good sign for his presidency.

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Experienced foreign policy hands were impressed at how well the administration's foreign policy team worked together during the incident. All the major players involved - Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Colin Powell, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice - are known for having strong personalities.

In the past, that has been a recipe for trouble. But many analysts already sense that the Bush foreign policy team seems willing to set aside their differences once they have been thrashed out in private. Joseph Sisco served as undersecretary of state under President Gerald Ford:

/// SISCO ACT ///

These are very, very experienced people. The debate is going to be as robust as could be. But I believe that a consensus will emerge. Dick Cheney, the vice president, will play a very key role. But the president will continue to increase his involvement as he becomes more comfortable and gets the touch that he has, quite frankly with domestic issues, which he does not yet have with external (international) issues.

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Former national security adviser Robert McFarlane says there is no substitute for experience in international affairs. He says the combined experience of Dick Cheney, Colin Powell, and Donald Rumsfeld in previous administrations should help them overcome their differences and work together:

/// MCFARLANE ACT ///

I think maturity really does matter and that all of the fights that have occurred in the Reagan years and earlier involving some of these same people really did sink in. And the lesson that those squabbles hurt the president and the administration and thereby them.

/// OPT /// And so yeah, surely there will be disagreements. Strong willed people, different points of view. But at the end of the day, and Cheney is going to be key in this, when the decision is made there is going to be a lot of loyalty and I think less of the kinds of animus (bitterness) flowing out than we saw in any earlier administration. /// END OPT ///

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But many experts say no matter how serene things may seem now it will be virtually impossible for this high-powered team to avoid divisive clashes over foreign policy in the future. Many see the potential for conflict between moderate Colin Powell and conservative Donald Rumsfeld.

Norman Ornstein is a political analyst with the American Enterprise Institute in Washington who has been studying recent presidential transitions. He says Vice President Cheney's role will be watched especially closely:

/// ORNSTEIN ACT ///

Is that something that can work? Can he play this role as a major foreign policy arbiter (referee) while also chairing the energy policy coordinating committee and spending much of his time casting tie-breaking votes or waiting around to cast tie-breaking votes on the Hill (in the U-S Senate).

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Most experts see Vice President Cheney as the first among equals in the Bush foreign policy team. But they also note that National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice enjoys a close working relationship with President Bush that began early in the presidential campaign, giving her an advantage over others who came aboard only after the election was settled. (Signed)

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