10 November 1999
(U.S. ratification "will happen over time," says arms control adviser) (690) By Susan Ellis Washington File Staff Writer Washington -- The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) eventually will be ratified by the United States, John Holum, the State Department's senior adviser for arms control and international security, told foreign news media representatives November 9. He said the recent setback of the vote in the Senate against the CTBT was "a detour rather than a reversal on the road to ratification of the test ban treaty." "I think that (ratification) will happen over time...It was a vote scheduled on short notice with not sufficient time to evaluate the treaty," Holum said, adding that a number of senators, including Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John Warner "who voted against the treaty, nonetheless want to start the process and have encouraged a process of sharing information, working out possible conditions and understandings that would allow the treaty to go forward." In any case, Holum stressed, "The United States is not testing nuclear weapons and has no plans to." Asked what changes might be made to the treaty to make it more acceptable to the Senate, Holum said, "It's unlikely that there will be renegotiation of the treaty." He added that ratification is unlikely "during the course of the next year" but that something unexpected could arise to change that. "If something very good internationally were to happen, I think perhaps the outlook would change. If we could get 43 other ratifications, for example, so that the United States was the only country left -- I think that would have some influence on the Senate." Holum said more dialogue between the administration and the Senate could also possibly influence that body to take up the treaty again. It's a "hard task," he admitted. "We have a lot of consultations to do. And what I'm arguing for is that ultimately, this treaty will be ratified (by the United States). Whether next year...the year after that, or even later." The Clinton administration, he said, wants to make sure it is ready if the opportunity presents itself, "and if it can't be ratified while President Clinton is still in office, (be able to) hand on to the next administration a favorable opportunity to move ahead." Asked about concerns over the administration's deliberations on the development of a National Missile Defense (NMD) program, which would entail amendments to the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, Holum said, "It is entirely possible to maintain the basic security value, the stability value, of the ABM Treaty while updating it to account for changed realities." He added such changes would not be disruptive to arms control and nonproliferation efforts. "We are proposing a very modest change in the ABM Treaty that would allow for a very limited first-stage defense against forces that we see emerging, particularly in the nearer term, in North Korea: a capability to strike the United States," he said. Holum said the United States' "front line of defense" in dealing with such threats is to work directly with "North Korea, as well as with Russia and China and other suppliers of related technology." He said there is some basis for questioning whether traditional ideas of deterrence would work in the case of a country like North Korea. So the answer would be the NMD program directed toward a limited attack. He said updating the ABM Treaty "strengthens the arms control regime rather than weakens it, because it shows that it can adapt to a changed international environment." The timing of the presidential decision on NMD really depends "on when the secretary of defense tells the president that ...(the Defense Department is) ready for a decision," he said. This is driven by the pace of development of the program, he said, and by next summer when President Clinton is expected to make his decision "it will have had three flight tests." (The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State.)