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DATE=11/6/98 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-41783 TITLE=RUSSIA / U-S / NUKES BYLINE=ANDRE DE NESNERA DATELINE= WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: THE UNITED STATES IS TRAINING RUSSIAN CUSTOMS OFFICIALS IN AN EFFORT TO PREVENT THE SMUGGLING OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND MATERIALS FROM RUSSIA. BUT AS V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ANDRE DE NESNERA REPORTS FROM WASHINGTON, ONE DEFENSE AND SECURITY EXPERT BELIEVES THE PROGRAM IS TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE. TEXT: SINCE THE BREAKUP OF THE SOVIET UNION, WESTERN GOVERNMENTS HAVE BEEN CONCERNED THAT NUCLEAR WARHEADS AND MATERIALS COULD BE SMUGGLED OUT AND POTENTIALLY SOLD TO TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS OR COUNTRIES LIKE LIBYA AND IRAQ. THE UNITED STATES HAS BEEN IN THE FOREFRONT OF EFFORTS TO LIMIT NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IN THE COUNTRIES OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION. FOR EXAMPLE, WASHINGTON HAS SPENT HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS TO HELP REMOVE UKRAINE'S NUCLEAR ARSENAL AND HAS BEEN WORKING WITH RUSSIAN AUTHORITIES TO IMPROVE THE COUNTRY'S NUCLEAR SAFETY STANDARDS. THERE ARE AN ESTIMATED 30-THOUSAND RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY TROOPS GUARDING THE COUNTRY'S NUCLEAR FACILITIES. AS RUSSIA'S ECONOMIC CRISIS PERSISTS -- AND SOLDIERS CONTINUE TO BE UNPAID FOR MONTHS -- WESTERN MILITARY ANALYSTS SAY THE TEMPTATION TO SELL NUCLEAR MATERIALS MAY INCREASE. IN THE LATEST EFFORT TO COMBAT THE POTENTIAL SMUGGLING OF NUCLEAR MATERIALS FROM RUSSIA, THE U-S CUSTOMS SERVICE HAS ANNOUNCED PLANS TO TRAIN ABOUT 30 RUSSIAN CUSTOMS OFFICERS. THEY WILL COME TO THE UNITED STATES FOR SEVERAL WEEKS BEFORE THE END OF THIS YEAR -- AND OTHER TRAINING SESSIONS ARE PLANNED IN THE FUTURE. IN ADDITION, THE UNITED STATES WILL GIVE RUSSIA EARLY NEXT YEAR THREE SMALL X-RAY VANS WITH NUCLEAR DETECTION CAPABILITIES. MICHAEL O'HANLON IS A DEFENSE EXPERT AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION -- A WASHINGTON-BASED RESEARCH CENTER. HE SAYS THE ECONOMIC SITUATION FACING THE RUSSIAN MILITARY IS SERIOUS. // O'HANLON ACT // THE BASIC PROBLEM IS THAT YOU HAVE A COUNTRY WITH ITS ARMED FORCES AND SECURITY FORCES DECAYING IN THE SENSE THEY ARE NOT GETTING PAID, THEY ARE NOT EATING WELL. THEY HAVE ALL SORTS OF ECONOMIC INCENTIVES TO FALL DOWN ON THE JOB, RANGING ALL THE WAY FROM JUST NOT SHOWING UP FOR WORK -- SO THEY CAN WORK IN THEIR FAMILY GARDEN TO PUT FOOD ON THE TABLE -- ALL THE WAY UP TO SELLING THE WEAPONS IF A FEW OF THEM GET ORGANIZED AND MEET THE RIGHT PERSON WHO WANTS THEM. SO IT IS NOT A GOOD SITUATION. YOU DO NOT WANT HUNGRY PEOPLE GUARDING NUCLEAR WEAPONS. // END ACT // MR. O'HANLON QUESTIONS WHETHER THE LATEST EFFORT BY THE UNITED STATES TO TRAIN RUSSIAN CUSTOMS OFFICERS IN DETECTING NUCLEAR MATERIALS WILL BE EFFECTIVE. // 2ND O'HANLON ACT // AS WE KNOW FROM DRUG TRAFFICKING IN THIS COUNTRY, YOU CANNOT INTERCEPT SMALL PACKAGES RELIABLY AT A COUNTRY'S BORDERS, NO MATTER HOW GOOD YOUR EQUIPMENT. WE CERTAINLY HAVE STATE-OF-THE-ART NEUTRON MONITORING EQUIPMENT AND OTHER THINGS LIKE THAT HERE IN THIS COUNTRY, BUT THAT IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO STOP MOST OF THE DRUGS -- AND THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO THINK IT SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH IN RUSSIA TO STOP THE MAJORITY OF ANY NUCLEAR MATERIALS THAT MIGHT BE SHIPPED THROUGH THE BORDERS. // END ACT // THE AMERICAN DEFENSE EXPERT OFFERS A MUCH MORE RADICAL PLAN: PAYING THE SALARIES OF RUSSIAN SECURITY PERSONNEL RESPONSIBLE FOR SAFEGUARDING THE COUNTRY'S NUCLEAR SITES. // 3RD O'HANLON ACT // THAT IS NOT A THOUGHT THAT TENDS TO GO DOWN WELL WITH AMERICAN POLITICIANS, TO BE PAYING RUSSIAN TROOPS FOR THEIR SERVICES. ON THE OTHER HAND, WE ARE ALREADY PAYING RUSSIAN WEAPONS SCIENTISTS TO DO OTHER KINDS OF RESEARCH. // OPT // AND EVEN THOUGH WE ARE INTERESTED IN THEIR RESEARCH, THE REAL REASON IS THAT WE DO NOT WANT THEM TO DO THE WRONG THING WITH THEIR KNOWLEDGE. AND IN THE CASE OF THESE SECURITY GUARDS, WE DO NOT WANT THEM TO DO THE WRONG THING WITH THEIR ACCESS. // END OPT // SO I THINK THE SITUATION IS ANALOGOUS : IF WE ARE PREPARED TO PAY RUSSIAN SCIENTISTS, WE SHOULD ALSO THINK ABOUT PAYING RUSSIAN SECURITY GUARDS WHO GUARD THESE NUCLEAR MATERIALS. // END ACT // MICHAEL O'HANLON FROM THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION BELIEVES THAT WOULD BE MONEY WELL SPENT GIVEN RUSSIA'S CURRENT ECONOMIC CRISIS AND THE HARDSHIPS FACED BY THE COUNTRY'S ONCE POWERFUL MILITARY. (SIGNED) NEB/ADEN/KL 06-Nov-98 10:58 AM EST (1558 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .