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DATE=8/27/98 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-41242 TITLE=MOSCOW SUMMIT/ARMS CONTROL BYLINE=DAVID GOLLUST DATELINE=WHITE HOUSE CONTENT= VOICED AT: ///EDS: SUMMIT SCENESETTER FOR USE THROUGH MONDAY/// INTRO: THOUGH NEXT WEEK'S CLINTON-YELTSIN SUMMIT WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE RUSSIAN ECONOMIC CRISIS, THE TWO LEADERS HAVE CRITICAL BUSINESS TO DO ON ARMS CONTROL. EFFORTS TO REDUCE STRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS HAVE HIT A ROADBLOCK IN THE RUSSIAN DUMA (LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT). V-O-A'S WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT DAVID GOLLUST HAS MORE. TEXT: THE ONCE-PROMISING U-S/RUSSIAN DIALOGUE ON NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL HAS FALLEN VICTIM TO THE POLITICAL TURMOIL IN MOSCOW. AND U-S OFFICIALS AND POLICY ANALYSTS ALIKE ARE GLOOMY ABOUT CHANCES THAT THE MOSCOW SUMMIT CAN PUT THINGS BACK ON TRACK. AT ISSUE IS THE START-TWO STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TREATY, SIGNED IN 1993. IT IS INTENDED TO CUT THE ARSENALS OF THE TWO SIDES BY NEARLY HALF -- TO NO MORE TO THAN 35-HUNDRED WARHEADS EACH. PERHAPS THE MOST FAR-REACHING ARMS DEAL IN HISTORY, START-TWO WAS RATIFIED BY THE U-S SENATE IN 1996. BUT IT HAS STALLED IN THE DUMA, WHICH IS CONTROLLED BY YELTSIN OPPONENTS ANGRY OVER NATO EXPANSION AND THE HIGH COSTS OF IMPLEMENTING THE TREATY. PRESIDENT CLINTON HAD FIRST SAID HE WOULD NOT TRAVEL TO MOSCOW UNLESS THE DUMA RATIFIED START-TWO. BUT HE BACKED AWAY FROM THAT STANCE AFTER IT BECAME APPARENT IT HAD NOT HELPED RATIFICATION PROSPECTS. HOW TO GET AROUND THE IMPASSE HAS DIVIDED U-S EXPERTS. BAKER SPRING, SENIOR ARMS CONTROL ANALYST AT WASHINGTON'S CONSERVATIVE HERITAGE FOUNDATION, SAYS PRESIDENT CLINTON SHOULD MAKE CLEAR THAT THE UNITED STATES -- UNLIKE THE KREMLIN -- CAN AFFORD TO KEEP ITS NUCLEAR FORCES AT CURRENT LEVELS: ///SPRING ACTUALITY/// I THINK WHAT HE'S GOT TO DO IS BRING PRESSURE BEAR ON THE RUSSIANS SO THAT THEY UNDERSTAND WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITHOUT RUSSIAN DUMA RATIFICATION OF START-TWO. AND THAT MEANS REQUESTING ADDITIONAL FUNDS FOR KEEPING THE U-S NUCLEAR ARSENAL AT THE START LEVEL -- SOMEWHAT MORE THAN SIX THOUSAND WARHEADS -- AS OPPOSED TO THE 35-HUNDRED WARHEADS THAT WOULD BE THE CEILING UNDER START-TWO -- AND SAY THAT THE UNITED STATES SPECIFICALLY WILL NOT UNILATERALLY GO AHEAD WITH REDUCTIONS THAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE REQUIRED BY THE TREATY. ///END ACT/// HOWEVER, THE PRESIDENT OF THE WASHINGTON-BASED ARMS CONTROL ASSOCIATION -- SPURGEON KEENY -- SAYS MR. CLINTON SHOULD TRY TO ADDRESS SOME OF THE CONCERNS OF DUMA MEMBERS, INCLUDING APPREHENSION THAT NATO MIGHT EXPAND INTO PARTS OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION INCLUDING THE BALTIC STATES: ///KEENY ACTUALITY/// THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT THE DUMA LOOKS TO INCLUSION OF THE BALTIC STATES, FOR EXAMPLE, AS AN EXTREMELY HOSTILE, DIRECT CONFRONTATION WITH THEM. AND I THINK IT'S QUITE WITHIN THE POWER OF THE PRESIDENT TO GIVE REASSURANCES THAT THIS IS SOMETHING WE HAVE BY NO MEANS MADE UP OUR MIND ON AND IT'S GOING TO BE A DECISION FOR THE FUTURE. ///END ACT/// JOHN ISAACS, PRESIDENT OF THE LIBERAL ADVOCACY GROUP "COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD" SAYS THAT WITH BOTH MR. CLINTON AND YELTSIN POLITICALLY WEAKENED, THERE IS LITTLE HOPE THEY CAN BUDGE THE DUMA. MR. ISAACS TOLD V-O-A THERE ARE MANY STEPS THE TWO LEADERS CAN TAKE ON THEIR OWN -- INCLUDING TAKING WEAPONS OFF ALERT -- TO REDUCE A NUCLEAR DANGER HE SAYS IS GROWING BECAUSE OF THE RUSSIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS: ///ISAACS ACTUALITY/// THE SECURITY SITUATION CLEARLY IS NOT VERY GOOD WITHIN RUSSIA. THE MILITARY IS NOT BEING PAID. SECURITY AROUND NUCLEAR MATERIALS AND NUCLEAR MISSILES IS SOMETIMES LESS THAN ADEQUATE. IF THE COUNTRY FURTHER DETERIORATES IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, WHO KNOWS WHAT THE SECURITY SITUATION WILL BE VIS-A-VIS THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS FORCE IN RUSSIA. IT'S PARAMOUNT THAT CLINTON AND YELTSIN TAKE ACTION -- AGAIN UNILATERAL EXECUTIVE ACTION -- RATHER THAN WAIT FOR THE PARLIAMENTARY BODIES TO CATCH UP. ///END ACT/// WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER SANDY BERGER HAS ACKNOWLEDGED THAT START-TWO IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BOTTLED UP IN THE DUMA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, BUT THAT SUMMIT PROGRESS CAN BE MADE ON OTHER SECURITY ISSUES INCLUDING KOSOVO, IRAQ AND IMPROVED CONTROLS ON RUSSIAN WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY EXPORTS. (SIGNED) NEB/DAG/JO 27-Aug-98 5:09 PM EDT (2109 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .