Not so Fast: Comments on
In September 2004, Greg Canavan of the Los Alamos National Laboratory presented a paper to the Marshal Institute in Washington, DC. The paper concludes that a limited space-based, boost-phase interceptor (SBI) missile defense system focused only on North Korea could be built for a little over three billion dollars. This remarkable figure required review. We have found that the cost estimate depends on a combination of (1) extremely optimistic, kill-vehicle mass estimates, (2) SBI cost estimates based on unrealistic learning curve values, (3) a somewhat exaggerated interceptor concentration based on a simplified model of satellite coverage, and (4) an unrealistically thin system designed to intercept a single North Korean missile. Without these optimistic inputs for cost, mass, and coverage, the model generally confirms earlier estimates by the American Physical Society and the Congressional Budget Office. A link to a PDF edition to the entire paper is to the right.
