Table G.1. The probability that classified information
about a classified project will reach an adversary through unauthorized
disclosures of that information, by persons working on that classified
project, for several scenarios S
P(S) = k_{S} H NP_{S} H NCOM_{S}^{*}
H COP_{S} H CREV_{S} H UAR_{S} H RTA_{S}


Variables in the probability equation 


Scenario, S 
Constant in probability equation 
Number of persons knowing classified information,
NP 
Average number of communications by each person,
NCOM 
Communication's classification review factor, CREV 
Average number of copies made of each communication,
COP 
Probability that unauthorized recipient will get
communication, UAR 
Probability that recipient will transmit
information to adversary, RTA 
Overall probability of classified information
reaching adversary 
Deliberate
unauthorized disclosure 
k_{1},
disloyalty constant, about 10^{5} 
NP_{S} 
1 
1 
1 
1 
1 
10^{5} H NP_{S} 
Inadvertent
direct unauthorized written disclosure 
k_{2}(w),
carelessness constant, about 10^{4} 
NP_{S} 
NCOM_{S} 
10^{2}
to 10^{5} 
COP_{S} 
1 
10^{2}
(targeting) to 10^{5} (random) 
10^{8}
to 10^{14} H NP_{S} H NCOM_{S}
H COP_{S} 
Inadvertent
direct unauthorized oral disclosure 
k_{2}(o),
carelessness constant, about 10^{3} 
NP_{S} 
NCOM_{S} 
10^{1}
to 10^{2} 
COP_{S} 
1 
10^{2}
(targeting) to 10^{5} (random) 
10^{6}
to 10^{10} H NP_{S} H NCOM_{S}
H COP_{S} 
Inadvertent
indirect unauthorized written disclosure 
k_{3}(w),
carelessness constant, about 10^{3} 
NP_{S} 
NCOM_{S} 
1 to 10^{2} 
COP_{S} 
10^{2}
to 10^{3} 
10^{1}
(targeting) to 10^{5} (random) 
10^{6}
to 10^{13} H NP_{S} H NCOM_{S}
H COP_{S} 
Inadvertent
indirect unauthorized oral disclosure 
k_{3}(o),
talkativeness constant, about 10^{2} 
k_{I} H NP_{S}(NP_{S}
B 1)/2G_{S} (footnote a) 
1 
1 
10^{1}
to 10^{5} 
10^{2}
(targeting) to 10^{5} (random) 
10^{5}
to 10^{12} H k_{I} H NP_{S}(NP_{S}
B 1)/2G_{S} 

^{a}For the
inadvertent indirect unauthorized oral disclosure scenario, the total number
of communications, NP H NCOM, can be estimated by
considering the number of interactions I between the persons working
on the classified project, NP.
For this scenario, the total number of communications NCOM(total)
can be estimated by NCOM(total) = k_{I} H I = k_{I}
H NP(NP B 1)/2G, where k_{1}
is a factor that takes into account that when NP is large then the
number of probable interactions is different from the theoretical number of
interactions and where G is a compartmentalization factor. 