Foreword vi Members of the Task Force viii Executive Summary 1 I. Introduction 14 II. Preventing Nuclear Anarchy 22 III. Strategic Arms Control 31 IV. The ABM Treaty and Ballistic Missile Defense 37 V. Conventional Forces in Europe 48 VI. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty 57 VII. The Chemical Weapons Convention 59 VIII. The Biological Weapons Convention 64 IX. Conclusion 67 Additional and Dissenting Views 70
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THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS TAKES NO INSTITUTIONAL POSITION ON POLICY ISSUES AND HAS NO AFFILIATION WITH THE U.S. GOVERNMENT. THIS STATEMENT IS THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE TASK FORCE.
From time to time, the Council will select a topic of critical importance to U.S. policy to be the subject of study by an independent, nonpartisan Task Force. The Council chooses members representing diverse views and backgrounds, including generalists as well as experts. Most, but not all, Task Frce members are also members of the Council, and the Council provides the group with staff support.
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The Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom is a bipartisan public policy institution announced by former President Richard Nixon in January 1994. Committed to the analysis of policy challenges to the United States through the prism of American national interest, the Center is a programmatically independent division of the Richard Nixon Library and Birthplace Foundation and maintains offices in Washington, D.C., and Orange County, California.
In addition to the Arms Control Task Force, the Center's projects include the National Security program, the Regional Stategic program, and the U.S. Russian Relations program. The Center is supported by its endowment, as well as foundation, corporate, and individual contributions. For more information about the Nixon Center, please contact Pau1 Saunders at (202) 887-1OOO.
Copyright 1996 by the Council on Foreign Relations, Inc.
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Printed in the United States of America.
The report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any form (beyond that copying permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyight Law and except by reviewers for the public press), without written permission from the publishers.
THE TASK FORCE wishes to thank the following people: Anthony Harpel, Isabelle Kaplan, Erin Klett, Jennifer Powell, and Joel Shin from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University for their research and logistical assistance; Merle Cachia and Mary E. Richards of the Council, and Paul Saunders of the Nixon Center, for their administrative support; and Patricia Dorff and Sarah Thomas of the Council for their editing and production help.
We also want to express our appreciation to Dr. Alvin H. Bernstein and Ambassador Marshall Brement of the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Garmisch, Germany, for hosting a meeting for distinguished European experts to critique an earlier draft of the report; and Dr. Sergei Karaganov and the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy in Moscow for arranging a session and separate meetings with Russian political figures and specialists to comment on the Task Force's deliberations. None of these foreign interlocutors necessarily endorse the report in any way.
Finally, the Task Force Chairman and Director wish to acknowledge the Carnegie Corporation of New York, whose grant helped underwrite this effort.