3.4 CB Studies, Analysis, and Simulation
The models generated or enhanced under this subarea will allow CB warfare effects to be assessed either separately or in conjunction with other meteorological and terrain effects in a variety of hazard assessment systems. The primary warfighter need in this area is to develop a simulation capability that integrates all available sensor data (CB detectors along with other relevant information such as meteorological and geographical data) and provides commanders with a decision aid to determine the appropriate protective posture, actions to avoid contamination, and means to predict areas of contamination. CB effects models under development include:
3.4.2.1 Goals and Timeframes. The overall goal of the CB studies, analysis, and simulation subarea is to develop operational support systems that provide situational awareness and aid command evaluations, integrate sensor data, and permit realistic training and simulation of the CB battlefield environment. A current thrust is to take advantage of the rapidly increasing computational power in personal computers/workstations by incorporating terrain, geolocation information, mesoscale meteorology, and objects such as tanks, ships, or buildings into CB warfare effects models. Steps are also being taken to add a realistic CB warfare capability to models such as JANUS and in wargames. The development of hazard assessment models for use by operational forces is another major focus.
CB warfare models are being continuously improved to provide a more realistic depiction of the hazard. Development and integration into various systems is coordinated with other system improvements to ensure that the maximum synergism is obtained. For example, the fidelity of the CB warfare model must be matched with the fidelity of the meteorological data that are available as an input. The first model to be fielded operationally was PC-based and used single hourly meteorological inputs. The next implementations were operational in FY95 and utilized 3D meteorological grids computed at centralized CONUS sites and transmitted to the command centers in the theaters of operation. By FY98, regional meteorology will be calculated in theater and used by the operational CB warfare models. As more sophisticated methodologies such as Navier-Stokes methods are validated, they may replace current methodologies by the FY97/98 timeframe.
Critical decisions that will be made based on an operational hazard assessment require rigorous verification, validation, and accreditation of models. Likewise, when these models are used for acquisition decisions, such as selection of the best ballistic missile interceptor or the optimal method of early warning of biological threats, it is vitally important that models be based on sound physics and validated with an appropriate set of field trials. In FY95, a semiautomated CB warfare model validation capability was developed. The effort will incorporate over 3,000 data points from both classified and unclassified field trial reports.
3.4.2.2 Major Technical Challenges. The primary technical challenges are data gathering from numerous sensors and sources, data generation for validation of the models, manipulation of large databases for real-time simulations to reduce computer run time, and provision of a simplified output and decision aids for easier interpretation of results. Other technical challenges include evaluation of a 3D Navier-Stokes flow code for more realistic profiles, developing high-resolution models for the distributed interactive simulations (DISs), and establishing threat/toxicity/exposure levels for CB agents with the models under various scenarios.
The lack of a standard CB warfare hazard assessment model for the services has been a problem in the past. This is being overcome by the adoption of the VLSTRACK model by the joint services for nearly all atmospheric CB agent releases. Benefits of VLSTRACK have been established by the BMDO's International Model Comparison Working Group. This standardization means that identical model operation and output can be expected in studies, training, simulation, and operational situations. It has also greatly reduced duplication.
In the area of hazard analysis, study of biological warfare agent detection requirements and medical prophylaxis is receiving added attention. During Operation Desert Storm, the U.S. and its allies had to hastily assemble the capability to analyze the potential biological warfare hazard and how to counter it. A number of data gaps (such as toxicity) are virtually impossible to fill, and others (such as determining the representative size distribution of various releases) are readily achievable. Even now, automated methods to accurately and realistically analyze the effectiveness of existing or planned biological warfare detection/identification systems are not available. Existing models and databases are unsuitable for accurately estimating total airborne concentrations of particles (combination of agent and background aerosol) as a function of size. New algorithms are under development for simulating both point and standoff detectors.
The major reasons for improving the CB warfare methodology in existing combat simulations are to make the simulation more realistic and to facilitate the use of CB warfare effects in wargames or assess the impact of CB warfare on an already well-understood process, such as sortie generation. This requires the use of relatively rigorous CB warfare models. However, most simulations lack the computer power to incorporate complex methodology without unacceptably lengthening their run time. It is possible that two different versions will be needed to satisfy the needs of both the scientific/engineering and the training communities. No data exist for the impact on operations from integrated wings or airlift missions. The measures of effectiveness for these operations are much more complex than, for example, sortie generation models that serve well for air-to-air and air-to-ground missions.
The lack of easy-to-use and credible simulation of CB agent effects has greatly impeded the ability to perform meaningful CB warfare in operational simulations. The ability to incorporate CB warfare effects into both the constructive and the virtual processes of DIS represents a significant technical challenge due to the high-fidelity, engineering-level cloud transport and diffusion model required and pervasive degree to which the CB environment is to be put all through the synthetic battlefield. In order to provide this capability in time to meet urgent materiel development schedules, a broad-based strategy is being followed that includes several simultaneous technology efforts. These involve adaptation of VLSTRACK as a standard transport and diffusion model, point and standoff CB agent detectors, and man-in-the-loop simulators of CB-unique vehicles such as the Joint Service Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Reconnaissance System (JSNBCRS) and the Biological Integrated Detection System (BIDS).
In addition to model development itself, there is a requirement to collect ground-truth data to evaluate model performance. Exercises such as the annual joint field trials at Dugway Proving Ground, as well as a follow-on to other data collections such as the Joint Contact Point over-the-water line source dissemination data collection effort, will provide a valuable basis for critical and now lacking data for evaluation of model performance.
3.4.2.3 Related Federal and Private Sector Efforts. Studies, analysis, and simulation programs support various elements of The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP), including TP9 (CB Hazard Assessment), the MOU with U.S./U.K./CA including ITF25 (Threat From Industrial Chemicals), and the NATO Ad Hoc Working Group 111 (Modeling and Simulation) and WGE.1 (CB Warfare Hazard Assessment). The Ad Hoc Working Group 111 is studying DISs to resolve command and control, interoperability, and other multinational mission issues (including CB warfare effects).
Following the 1994 Technology Area Review of CB Defense Science and Technology Base Programs, a CB Modeling Process Action Team (PAT) was established. The NBC Modeling PAT published a final report in September 1996. It recommended that the following structure be implemented to integrate and consolidate all DoD NBC modeling efforts: (1) appoint an existing organization as a central commodity area called the NBC Modeling Capabilities Group under the Joint NBC Defense Board, and (2) designate this group responsible for collecting and prioritizing user requirements and finding materiel acquisition solutions. Recently, PAT members drafted an organizational charter for community review.
3.4.3.1 Technology Development. Providing realistic agent challenge levels for all situations requires continuous improvement in modeling methodologies and algorithms to cover the increasing variety of applications, such as modeling the behavior of CB agents released at high altitudes following the intercept of a CB warhead. Likewise, making hazard models available to and their output suitable for use by the battlefield commander as a decision aid also requires considerable modification to models previously used primarily for research and engineering
3.4.3.2 Basic Research. There is no basic research funding for simulation. However, data from related basic research efforts, such as aerosol sciences, provide critical information for updating models and simulations.
