3.7 Weapon Lethality/Vulnerability
DoD requires the ability to accurately assess the lethality of U.S. weapons and the vulnerability of U.S. systems. Without this capability, it is impossible to assess the U.S. posture in future conflicts, the advantages to be gained by pending U.S. weapon/platform developments, or the threats posed by foreign developments. Weapon lethality/vulnerability (WL/V) investments yield a 5:1 payoff early in the design phase of the development cycle, providing the cost-effective means for optimizing conventional weapon technologies. The timely use of WL/V analyses also supports the warfighter through reduced U.S. casualties and enhanced battlefield performance. Formerly, lethality assessments were largely based on experimentation on actual equipment, a prohibitively costly procedure. Through WL/V, analytical tools are being developed that reduce experimentation with a documented investment payback of 30:1. Common software architectures have led to standardized methodologies across the four services, leading to traceable, high-confidence predictions of friendly weapon lethality and significantly increased survivability of friendly personnel and systems. Transition of these tools yield validated payoffs in developmental and inventory systems, support for COEAs, and more economic fulfillment of live-fire testing requirements, as prescribed in Chapter 139, Section 2366 of Title 10, U.S. Code.
The focus for the WL/V technology is twofold: (1) to provide the capability to improve and evaluate the lethality and survivability of advanced weapon system concepts and technologies, systems in acquisition, and fielded weapon systems, and (2) to reduce reliance on costly tests/experiments while improving overall analysis capabilities. Significant progress has been made in the past 5 years through:
3.7.2.1 Goals and Timeframes. The major goals for WL/V are to support the tri-service weapons community through the provision of analytical tools and databases. The number of U.S. systems required to undergo live-fire testing and evaluation in accordance with U.S. code has remained constant despite defense spending reductions. Programs are phased so as to concentrate on the production of methodologies, capabilities, and environments of general utility in the near term (1-2 years) in order to support high payoffs in the mid term (3+ years). The goals are development of tools in the areas listed in Table X-8.
3.7.2.2 Major Technical Challenges. The technical challenges in the WL/V subarea are developing statistically reliable predictions of target damage resulting from all sources and combinations of ballistic mechanisms (penetrator, fragments, blast, shock, fire, etc.). Challenges also include performance/utility prediction that relates target damage states to diminished system performance, and L/V software environments that support expeditious and extensive WL/V analyses.
3.7.2.3 Related Federal and Private Sector Efforts. Many of the WL/V products and codes are distributed to other government organizations and industry through the Survivability Vulnerability Information Analysis Center (SURVIAC). It is estimated that industry uses L/V products in support of government analyses at a funding level of approximately $40 million per year. This figure is expected to increase with the continued "right sizing" of the federal defense workforce.
With the reduction of defense spending for procurement of major weapon platforms, the need for analyses using constructive models or man-in-the-loop distributed interactive simulations will require more information to be made available to evaluate technology upgrades and to justify new procurement programs. The basis for these decisions is, in part, WL/V modeling.
In the WL/V arena, many civilian agencies both use and contribute to DoD results, including law enforcement agencies, shock-trauma units in hospitals, the American Association of Automobile Medicine, universities, and many other private sector industries.
| Application/Mission | Short Term (1-2 Years) | Mid Term (3-5 Years) | Long Term (6+ Years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary penetrator phenomenology | Hit-to-kill (TBM); special armor penetrator; concrete penetra-tion. | Exoatmospheric intercept; hypervelocity methodology | Validation of deep, hardened target methodology |
| Fragment/debris phenomenology | Characterize current materials; component dysfunction analyses | Reactive materials; hyper-velocity impact | Physics-based debris generation |
| Blast and shock phenomenology | Structural defeat; shock propagation. | Advanced materials response; complex environment generation | Accurate prediction for hardened buried targets |
| Fire and fumes phenomenology | Personnel effects; fire initiation models | Fire propagation; toxic fume dispersion | Accurate solution for deep, hardened targets |
| Damaged target response models | 6-DOF models for aircraft; improved technology for assessment of degraded performance | Extension of method to foreign system | Accurate models of battle damage assessment |
| L/V supporting technologies | Advanced target geometry technology; cone and solid-core geometry analysis; target uncertainty model | Statistical technology; stand-ard software environment for L/V analyses | Real-time connectivity with DIS |
3.7.3.1 Technology Demonstrations. An analytical extension to the penetration model to predict scaling will be demonstrated and validated in the WL/V subarea.
3.7.3.2 Technology Development. Technology development efforts support demonstrations described above, lay the foundation for demonstrations, and address longer-term military applications. Major task areas are:
3.7.3.3 Basic Research. Scientific computing research feeds the performance modeling of weapon systems and components, as well as the U.S. weapons design process. Broad-based research programs in ballistic sciences provide essential algorithms and data required to support L/V analyses of advanced warfighting concepts and technologies.
