The models generated or enhanced under this subarea will allow CB warfare effects to be assessed either separately or in conjunction with other meteorological and terrain effects in a variety of hazard assessment systems. The primary Warfighter need is to develop a simulation capability which integrates all available sensor data (CB detectors along with other relevant information such as meteorological and geographical data) and provides Commanders with a decision aid to determine the appropriate protective posture, actions to avoid contamination, and means to predict areas of contamination. Such CB effects models under development include:
CB Defense Integrated Meteorological and Contamination Transport (CBD-IMPACT). This is a planned upgrade to the Maneuver Control System (MCS) for FY97 to allow operational computating of mesoscale meteorology and subsequent CB hazards on the MCS workstation.
Hazard Prediction Systems Integration Program (HPSIP). HPSIP is being developed for quantifying and visualizing areas affected by and casualties caused by NBC weapons to assess technological and natural hazards associated with operations other than war. The system will be hosted on a Unix open system workstation with the ability to operate on a laptop computer for field deployments. Weather data digest, population data bases and a Geographic Information System (GIS) will be included.
Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability (HPAC). HPAC is a series of models that address source term generation, transport and diffusion, and 3 dimensional modeling of meteorological conditions with interaction of complex terrain. These models are integrated into a single automated package design to run on a workstation. The program will assess the impact of an accidental release of hazardous materials during military operations.
Post Engagement Ground Effects Model (PEGEM). This is one of several systems under development by the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO) to compute the effects of intercepting a missile with a nuclear, conventional, chemical or biological warhead. A version of VLSTRACK is being modified to meet the requirements of high altitude transport and diffusion.
3.4.2 CB Studies, Analysis And Simulation Overview
3.4.2.1 Goals and Timeframes. The overall goal of the Studies, Analysis and Simulation subarea is to provide systems which will provide situational awareness and aid command evaluations, integrate sensor data, and permit realistic training and simulation of the CB battlefield environment. A current thrust is to take advantage of the rapidly increasing computational power in personal computers/workstations by incorporating terrain, geolocation information, mesoscale meteorology and objects such as tanks, ships or buildings into CB warfare effects models. Steps are also being taken to add a realistic CB warfare capability to models such as JANUS and in wargames. The development of hazard assessment models for use by operational forces is another major focus.
CB warfare models are being continuously improved to provide a more realistic depiction of the hazard. Development and integration into various systems is coordinated with other system improvements to ensure that the maximum synergism is obtained. For example, the fidelity of the CB warfare model must be matched with the fidelity of the meteorological data which is available as an input. The first model to be fielded operationally was PC-based and used single hourly meteorological inputs. The next implementations were operational in FY95 and utilized 3-D meteorological grids which are computed at centralized CONUS sites and transmitted to the command centers in the theater of operations. The first accredited, Joint Service CB warfare hazard model will be adopted by FY96. By FY98, regional meteorology will be calculated in theater and used by the operational CB warfare models. As more sophisticated methodologies such as Navier-Stokes methods are validated, they may replace current methodologies by the FY97/98 timeframe.
Critical decisions that will be made from an operational hazard assessment require rigorous verification, validation and accreditation of models. Likewise, when these models are used for acquisition decisions such as selection of the best ballistic missile interceptor, or the optimal method of early warning of biological threats, it is vitally important that models be based on sound physics and validated with an appropriate set of field trials. In FY95, a semi-automated CB warfare model validation capability was developed. The effort will incorporate over 3000 data points from both classified and unclassified field trial reports.
3.4.2.2 Major Technical Challenges. The primary technical challenges in this subarea are data gathering from numerous sensors and sources, data generation for validation of the models, manipulation of large data bases for real-time simulations to reduce computer running time, and providing a simplified output and decision aides for easier interpretation of results. Other technical challenges include evaluation of a 3-dimensional Navier-Stokes flow code for more realistic profiles, developing high resolution models for the Distributed Interactive Simulations (DIS), and establishing threat/toxicity/exposure levels for CB agents with the models under various scenarios.
The lack of a standard CB warfare hazard assessment model for the Services has been a problem in the past. This is being overcome by the adoption of the Vapor, Liquid and Solid Tracking (VLSTRACK) model by the Joint Services for nearly all atmospheric CB agent releases. Benefits of VLSTRACK have been established by the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization's International Model Comparison Working Group. This standardization means that identical model operation and output can be expected in studies, training, simulation and operational situations. It has also greatly reduced duplication.
In the area of hazard analysis, study of BW agent detection requirements and medical prophylaxis is receiving added attention. During Operation Desert Storm, the U.S. and its allies had to hastily assemble the capability to analyze the potential BW hazard and how to counter it. There are a number of data gaps (such as toxicity) which are virtually impossible to fill, and others (such as determining the representative size distribution of various releases) which are readily achievable. Even now, automated methods to accurately and realistically analyze the effectiveness of existing or planned BW detection/identification systems are not available. Existing models and databases are unsuitable for accurately estimating total airborne concentrations of particles (combination of agent and background aerosol) as a function of size. New algorithms are under development for simulating both point and standoff detectors.
The major reasons for improving the CB warfare methodology in existing combat simulations is to make the simulation more realistic and to facilitate the use of CB warfare effects in wargames or assess the impact of CB warfare on an already well understood process, such as Sortie Generation. This requires the use of relatively rigorous CB warfare models. However, most simulations lack the computer power to incorporate complex methodology without unacceptably lengthening their run time. It is possible that two different versions will be needed to satisfy the needs of both the scientific/engineering and training communities. No data exists for impact on operations from integrated wings or airlift missions. The Measures of Effectiveness for these operations are much more complex than sortie generation which serve well for air-to-air and air-to-ground missions.
The lack of easy to use and credible simulation of CB agent effects has greatly impeded the ability to perform meaningful CB warfare in operational simulations. The ability to incorporate CB warfare effects into both the constructive and virtual processes of DIS represents a significant technical challenge due to the high fidelity, engineering level, cloud transport and diffusion model required and pervasive degree to which the CB environment is to be put all through the synthetic battlefield. In order to provide this capability in time to meet urgent materiel development schedules, a broad based strategy is being followed which includes several simultaneous technology efforts. These involve adaptation of VLSTRACK as a standard transport and diffusion model, point and standoff CB agent detectors, and man-in-the-loop simulators of CB unique vehicles such as the M93A1 Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Reconnaissance System (NBCRS or FOX vehicle) and the Biological Integrated Detection System (BIDS).
In addition to model development itself, there is a requirement to collect ground truth data to evaluate model performance. Exercises such as the annual Joint Field Trials at Dugway Proving Ground, as well as a follow-on to other data collections such as the Joint Contact Point over-the-water line source dissemination data collection effort, will provide a valuable basis for critical and now lacking data for evaluation of model performance.
3.4.2.3 Related Federal and Private Sector Efforts. Studies, analysis and simulation programs support various elements of The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP), including TP9 - CB Hazard Assessment, the MOU with US/UK/CA including ITF25 - Threat from Industrial Chemicals, and the NATO Ad Hoc Working Group 111 - Modeling and Simulation, and WGE.1 - CB Warfare Hazard Assessment. The Ad Hoc Working Group 111 is studying DIS to resolve command and control, interoperability and other multi-national mission issues (including CB warfare effects).
3.4.3 CB Studies, Analysis And Simulation S&T Investment Strategy
Following the 1994 Technology Area Review of CB Defense Science and Technology Base Programs, a CB Modeling Process Action Team (PAT) was established. The objectives of the PAT are (1) to recommend a coordination and integration process for CB models and simulations, (2) to recommend CB modeling and simulation requirements generation process, (3) to identify and prioritize modeling and simulation requirements, (4) to recommend means to reduce duplications of efforts, and (5) to provide a forum for communicating concerns and issues. From the operations and technical development perspective, the goal of the PAT is to provide a means to use the same performance measurements for any given technology effort or wargame.
3.4.3.1 Technology Development. Providing realistic agent challenge levels for all situations requires continuous improvement in modeling methodologies and algorithms to cover the increasing variety of applications, such as modeling the behavior of CB agents released at high altitudes following the intercept of a CB warhead. Likewise, making hazard models available to and their output suitable for use by the battlefield commander as a decision aid also requires considerable modification to models previously used primarily for research and engineering
3.4.3.2 Basic Research. There is no basic research funding
for simulation. However, data from related basic research efforts,
such as aerosol sciences, provides critical information for updating
data for models and simulations.