Chapter 7

Halfs and Half-Naughts

The dawn of 2025 finds this world in turbulence. As some nations crest Toffler's "Third Wave"¹ and transition from an industrial to an information-based society, they continue restructuring at all levels. The United States is not the only society feeling the effects of these changes. Those who manage this change prosper; those who do not risk joining the ranks of the have-nots.

The world is divided into haves and have-nots. Many societies have experienced growth and development. Others are swamped by overpopulation pressures, food shortages, poor health conditions, overwhelmed social services, and the resultant widespread unrest.² Conflicts produced by these problems spur nationalism and grievances around the world, splitting nation-states and sometimes threatening the interests of the four superpowers.

Halfs and Half-Naughts is placed in the center of the Alternate Futures strategic planning space (fig. 7-1). Technology has evolved rapidly, but the advances are uneven and often unavailable to those without the training and infrastructure to use them effectively. Revolutionary advances in the communications and information realm are offset by less impressive developments in areas dealing with the environment, transportation, and energy. As a result DTeK is partially Constrained and partly Exponentialⁿ. The creation of new countries and the growing importance of economic clout relative to military strength characterizes a World Power Grid which is currently Concentrated in the hands of a few actors but evolving towards a Dispersed structure. Recent world events have shifted the American world view towards a Global perspective following a period of Domestic focus.

Figure 7-1. Strategic Planning Space for Halfs and Half-Naughts

Plausible History

Even in the 1990s, observers were commenting on the role of nationalism in splitting existing states (fig. 7-2).³ The Balkans were the epitome of this trend and after a short interlude, Croatian nationalism ripped apart the fragile Dayton peace accords in 1998.⁴ US-led NATO forces formed in a de facto military alliance with Russian troops to form a peacemaking coalition, reimposing the status quo by 1999. The painstaking reconciliation process mandated a semipermanent 30,000-member peacekeeping force split between the US, other NATO nations, and Russia.

Figure 7-2. Plausible History for Halfs and Half-Naughts

In 2004, the American world view was shocked into a domestic focus. The long-feared California earthquake was devastating, measuring 8.0 on the moment-magnitude scale.⁵ It left 150,000 dead, 200,000 injured, and millions with little food, water, or shelter. The governor of California called on the National Guard to contain widespread looting and assist cleanup efforts, but the situation spiraled out of control. The president had to authorize active duty military assistance, and elements of three divisions were required to control the situation.

While some world actors consolidated power, others split apart. For instance, by 2006 most of the former Soviet republics consolidated into a broad economic "common market" as a counterweight to a European Union (EU) that refused to admit them. The individual nations retained sovereignty,⁶ but the elimination of local customs barriers and agreement on common interests helped accelerate Russia's economic reconstruction. In contrast, African states continued to fracture.⁷ Continued population growth fueled this fire, and political and social instability hampered food production. Several civil assistance operations were mounted by different state and nonstate actors in an effort to retain access to key resources.

In 2010, Castro's death brought an end communist rule in Cuba. As a result, the Cuban economy accelerated, which in turn encouraged expatriate Cubans to return home. The new Cuban government asked for US help in dealing with the influx of "immigrants." The US responded to the region's newest democracy by investing billions of dollars in Cuba. Most of the US looked on with uneasiness as repatriated Cubans joined with leaders on the island to propose US territorial status for Cuba, sparking a controversial debate within the US. The southeast supported territorial status, and the rest of the country opposed it. This debate helped keep US attention focused inward.

This domestic focus drove the US to acquiesce to China's 2017 occupation of the Spratly Islands.⁸ Japan and Russia rejected China's claim and demanded action,⁹ but the US was reluctant to do more than lodge a protest. The US response alarmed and angered Japan, whose investors retaliated by dumping large amounts of US bonds into global financial markets. This triggered a recession in the US. Tensions between Russia, Japan, and China caused the world to worry about a major superpower confrontation for the first time since the end of the cold war.

The continuing information revolution righted the US economy by 2021. This recovery coupled with fears of foreign superpower confrontations and the attendant implications for the US to foster a more Global focus to the American world view.

The Nature of Actors

Nation states still dominate the international arena. The US, China, Russia, and the European Union have spheres of influence. They are the world's preeminent powers, all roughly equal when combined political, economic, information, and military strengths are considered.¹⁰

Several factors are eroding nation-state sovereignty both internally and externally. A fair number of multinational corporations are surpassing all but the strongest nation-states in economic clout. Thirty-seven MNCs have greater annual income than the gross domestic product of two-thirds of the world's states.¹¹ Part of their influence is due to the increasing importance placed on economic growth fueled by the tremendous increases in information technology. This technology has also rendered state boundaries permeable,¹² despite increasing security concerns and efforts.¹³ Additionally, criminal mafia organizations, such as the Sonoran Drug Cartel, have become very powerful.¹⁴ The Sonoran Drug Cartel maintains its own mercenary army as a special forces unit to guard its assets and terrorize recalcitrant opponents.¹⁵

The Nature of International Politics

International politics are divided between the older-style nation-state relations and evolving discussions with nonstate actors. The four superpowers work through the UN Security Council or conduct bilateral diplomacy to address potential conflicts. Meanwhile, many states are struggling or even collapsing. Where states are weak, a volatile mixture of MNCs, nongovernmental organizations, and foreign interventions results in frequent conflict. This situation makes foreign policy coordination between the US Departments of State, Commerce, Justice, and Defense vital to protecting US interests in these areas.

The Nature of US National Security Strategy

Envy and resentment between the haves and have-nots fuel conflict in this world.¹⁶ In response to these tensions, the US military relies on a "carrot and stick" approach: civil-military and humanitarian operations to help where it can and the use of force when needed.

The strategic challenge in this world is to meet the dramatic increase in the number of "other military operations" while DOD budgets continue to decline. The strategy used is similar to that of the late 1990s, when a strategy of engagement and enlargement drove US foreign affairs, but the presence of several peer competitors adds a new dynamic.¹⁷ Peer competitors will quickly fill the voids left by US inaction, increasing their status and regional influence at the expense of US influence. At the same time, engagement in troubled areas must be weighed against diminishing our ability to deter major conflicts or the threat of weapons of mass destruction.

The US must also consider its responses to world events in light of the oscillating American world view. Support for overseas engagement is not guaranteed and may shift rapidly in response to events.

The Nature of Humanity

In Halfs and Half-Naughts, social interaction is colored by nationalism, cultural and religious differences, and economic disparity. People generally feel less secure today than they did 30 years ago because of the increasing pressures from many directions.¹⁸ Information technology has made people more aware of their cultural differences and of significantly different standards of living.¹⁹ The rising power of drug cartels has exacerbated the negative social influence of drugs, amplifying crime problems in the US and other societies. The result of all of these events is a society which demands ever more from its government and federal agencies, to include the military, and is less satisfied with the results.

The Nature of Technology

Technology forecasters in the late twentieth century were right about the great advances in computers, but underestimated the speeds reached in 2025. Personal computers process information five million times faster than in the mid-1990s²⁰ and most have quintibyte²¹ storage capacities thanks to the exploitation of molecular-level technologies.²² Encrypted communications are the norm, and data transfer is done at speeds of terabytes²³ per second rather than bits per second.²⁴

These technological advances have been harnessed to a joint planetary defense arrangement between the four major powers. The project is as much an effort to encourage cooperation as to maintain a space shield against asteroids.²⁵ Technological advances have also stimulated the proliferation of WMD. Thankfully, their use has only been threatened: states are unwilling to risk their use, and terrorist groups have so far been unwilling to risk the loss of public or state support which could result from mass slaughter.

On the other hand, revolutionary advances have come primarily in those areas in which the wealthier societies have an interest. Exploitation of these technologies and their accompanying prosperity remain concentrated with the state and nonstate "haves." Areas of concern to poorer groups have seen little new development, providing an additional spur to conflict.

The Nature of the Environment

The environment can be characterized as camouflage (mottled green and brown) because those areas that can afford it have experienced a "green revolution" which others cannot afford. The lack of revolutionary energy technologies has left fossil fuels as the dominant energy source. This makes global warming a major concern. Water has become a major source of conflict in Southwest Asia, the Middle East, and portions of Africa.²⁶

The Nature of the Defense Budget

This world has seen a continued decline in the purchasing power of the defense budget (fig. 7-3). The Spratly Islands problem caused a temporary spike in defense spending, and recently the DOD budget has again turned upward. Over the last 30 years the US GDP has grown at a rather modest 3 percent annually. The defense budget (just over $250 billion in 1995 dollars) represents just under 1.5 percent of the GDP, and modernization budgets have stayed below 33 percent of total defense outlays.

Figure 7-3. DOD Budget (Constant FY95 $B) for Halfs and Half-Naughts

Capabilities

Military forces in this world must be constantly ready to engage across the entire spectrum of conflict. The highest priority is deterring the use of weapons of mass destruction. The Defense Department also needs special operations capabilities to conduct other military operations, conventional forces to respond to lesser or major regional contingencies, and the ability to deter or fight in a major conflict with a global superpower. The US must stand ready to operate against unconventional forces in its fight against the drug cartels. Therefore, military forces must be flexible, ready to act, and easy to support.

Though the US leads developments in advanced information systems, the increasing threat requires front-line forces, with accompanying doctrine to conduct information warfare for and against military and civilian systems. The spectrum of conflict stretches into space, where space-based assets have direct offensive capability, as well as providing force multiplication.

Implications

US security forces must be both mentally and physically flexible to meet this remarkably diverse spectrum of conflict. The "old" threat of industrial-age nation-state conflict (conventional or nuclear) still exists, requiring techniques and weapons capable of surviving and succeeding in rapid, intense, and large-scale conflict. However, the addition of new and often destabilizing influences injected by the new global balance of power, the rise of nonnation-state actors, and the growing incidence of attacks via the electronic realm of cyberspace require forces with doctrine and equipment applicable to all of the above threats. Customized training on demand, easily accessed and assimilated, is vital to "shifting gears" rapidly between mission types.

Operational flexibility is a must. Military forces must have the ability to shift rapidly from humanitarian support into combat against unconventional mercenary forces or against a major national power, then transition into peacekeeping operations. A crucial contributor to success is the ability to pack up and move rapidly as situations evolve.

Summary

Halfs and Half-Naughts is an extremely demanding world for military forces and organizations. Keeping all of the drivers in "the middle of the box" makes them almost scalar quantities rather than vectors. While their magnitude is evident in the sweeping changes in the future, the lack of direction means all potential military missions from the other futures are present simultaneously. The result is the most diverse set of challenges in our six worlds. These challenges result from a world where the American world view is Domestic but moving towards global concerns as the year 2025 arrives. As to technological progress, DTeK has been Exponentialⁿ in some areas, but Constrained in most others. Finally, the World Power Grid is transitioning from Concentrated to Dispersed.

Notes

1. Alvin Toffler and Heidi Toffler, War and Anti-War: Survival at the Dawn of the 21st Century (New York: Little, Brown, and Co., 1993).
2. Robin Broad and John Cavanaugh, "Don't Neglect the Impoverished South," Foreign Policy, Winter 1995-96, 18-35.
3. Daniel S. Papp, Contemporary International Relations: Frameworks for Understanding (New York: Macmillan College Publishing Company, 1994), 6-7.
4. Although less publicized than Serbian aggression, Croatian nationalists have designs on portions of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Many Bosnian Muslims believe Croatia and Serbia have a secret deal to divide Bosnia-Herzegovina between them. Croatians have an army which successfully defeated the Krajina Serbs, and Time magazine summarized the situation succinctly: "In 1993 there was only one big bully in the Balkans, the Serbs. Now there are two." Kevin Fedarko, "The Balkans: New Victors, New Victims," Time 146, no. 8 (August 21, 1995): 48-50.
5. Most seismologists have abandoned the familiar Richter scale (based on seismograph readings) for the more precise moment-magnitude scale (based on total energy released by the earthquake). For comparison, the 1906 San Francisco earthquake was estimated as 8.3 on the Richter scale and 7.7 on the moment-magnitude scale. The Northridge earthquake of 1994 was 6.7 on the moment-magnitude scale. There are many different faults in California under stress in 1996. Opinions vary, but the level of stress could produce an 8.0 magnitude earthquake in the Los Angeles area or even a magnitude 9.0 quake in Northern California. An earthquake during the day would cause death tolls to rise dramatically. See "Living With California's Faults," National Geographic Magazine 187, no. 4 (April 1995): 2-35.
6. This trend has already begun. Belarus is moving towards a "Soviet-like" union with Russia. See the Associated Press story, "Belarussians Rethinking Move to Independence," Montgomery Advertiser, 31 March 1996. This was followed up by another Associated Press story, "Russia, Belarus to Form Union," Montgomery Advertiser, 3 April 1996.
7. See Dr Karl P. Magyar, "Culture and Conflict in Africa's History The Transition to the Modern Era," in Conflict, Culture, and History: Regional Dimensions (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University Press, 1993), 229-289. "Africa Unravels" is cited as a major potential wild card by John L. Peterson, The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future (Corte Madera, Calif.: Waite Group Press, 1994), 321-322.
8. Magyar agrees that the US would not intervene if China seized the Spratly Islands in these circumstances. Dr Karl P. Magyar, faculty at Air Command and Staff College, Air University, Maxwell AFB, Ala., interview with one of the authors, 9 April 1996.
9. Japan is already uncertain about the potential US response to a crisis in the South China Sea, which would threaten vital shipping routes bringing oil to Japan from the Middle East. Strategic Assessment 1995 (Washington, D.C.: National Defense University, 1995,) 28. Russian support for Japan is postulated as a power balance with China and an effort by Russia to strengthen ties with Japan.
10. For a discussion of the information dimension of power see Joseph S. Nye, Jr., and William A. Owens, "America's Information Edge," Foreign Affairs 75, no. 2 (March-April 1996): 20-36.
11. This is a conservative estimate of trends which drive the emergence of economic power in MNCs. As of 1991, 19 of the world's top 50 economic units (and 44 of the top 100) were MNCs rather than nation states. As states continue to divide and MNCs grow, this trend should continue. Daniel S. Papp, Contemporary International Relations (New York: Macmillan College Publishing Co., 1994), 94-113.
12. In his chapter titled "The Eclipse of Geopolitics," Gilder discusses technology's implications for conventional views of national sovereignty. George Gilder, Microcosm: The Quantum Revolution in Economics and Technology (New York: Touchstone, 1989), 353-370.
13. "The Global Network is a historically unprecedented highway system that defies nationalism and borders." This statement in Schwartau's introduction to information warfare outlines the basic thesis for the entire book. Schwartau discusses the threat of information warfare and suggests possible defensive actions to ameliorate US vulnerability. Winn Schwartau, Information Warfare (New York: Thunder's Mouth Press, 1994), 20.
14. Narcoterrorism has been proposed as one of the prime threats in the twenty-first century. Schwartau believes this threat will be one of the sources of information warfare-style attacks on the US. Schwartau, 34-35.
15. Toffler and Toffler, 198.
16. Information technology also helps poor people understand how poor and disenfranchised they are. Poor people with nothing to lose and with access to weapons have little reason not to threaten others. Petersen titles this trend "The Poor Know They Are Poor and Get Weapons." John L. Petersen, The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future (Corte Madera, Calif.: Waite Group Press, 1994), 330-331.
17. The 1995 national security strategy asserted the United States was the "world's preeminent power" and that "the threat of war among great powers [has] receded dramatically." The 1995 national security strategy is the basis for current US military strategy. A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement (Washington, D.C.: The White House, February 1995), 1.
18. The source of this pressure is the continuing changes in world societies. Paul Kennedy summed it up this way: "As the twenty-first century approaches, therefore, the peoples of the earth seem to be discovering that their lives are ever more affected by forces which are, in the full meaning of the word, irresponsible." The forces he refers to include world population growth, the rise of multinational corporations, global environmental degradation, international migration, and the decline of national sovereignty. See Paul Kennedy, Preparing for the Twenty-First Century (New York: Random House, 1993). Added to these trends are the rapid and often turbulent changes in the lives of individuals in relatively prosperous societies transitioning or operating in a "third wave," or information-based society.
19. Envy and resentment are likely sources of conflict as have-nots around the world learn more about how well the haves live. Schwartau, 36.
20. Current rates of growth would lead to processing speeds one million times faster than 1993 standards. See Will Kopp, "Vital Speeches of the Day," VOL. LX, No. 8, 244. Speech delivered at Perry/Morgan County National Honor Society Recognition Conference, Zanesville, Ohio, 22 November 93.
21. One quintibyte equals 10¹⁵ bytes.
22. Molecular technology has the potential to make commonplace pocket supercomputers that are able to store "every book, magazine, pamphlet, and newspaper ever printed, complete with graphics . . . in a volume the size of a credit card." Petersen, 59-60.
23. One terabyte equals 10¹² bytes.
24. See appendix B for a discussion of trends in computer capabilities.
25. Most agree that a planetary defense system should be created as a planetary project or responsibility. Building international coordination, cooperation, support, and trust would be vital. See "Planetary Defense System: Catastrophic Health Insurance for Planet Earth," 2025 white paper (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University, 1996). This history postulates that the major powers use this cooperation for both establishing a space shield and as a method of reducing tensions and building trust between powers.
26. Frank Gallegos and Jan Kinner, "World Water: War or Peace?" Strategic Structures Course Book Volume I (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air Command and Staff College, 1995), 284-299.

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