Information Control in 2025
We must remember that science and science fiction are related only superficially.
-Air Force Scientific Advisory Board, New World Vistas
It is very difficult to accurately predict the operational environment of 2025. The technological advantage that US weapon systems have enjoyed is decreasing due to the proliferation of technologies to the commercial sector and to other nations. Former or potential adversaries are gaining access to space and ballistic missile technologies, and they are starting to use information systems like the Global Positioning System (GPS) and commercial remote-sensing surveillance systems such as the French system probatoire d'observation de la terre (SPOT). Because information is essential to fighting wars, the upper hand in future conflict may belong to the nation that does the best job utilizing and controling the information flow.
Due to the unpredictabiltiy of the future environment, it is very difficult to determine what tools must be developed to meet information control requirements. Instead, it is more important at this stage to develop an architecture that is able to operate effectively in a number of technological scenarios. This will allow changes in the geopolitical environment, technological advances, and operational needs to dictate the specific tools that will be developed in the next 30 years.
The key system drivers for a military information control system would most likely be the demands for coverage, mobility, timeliness and security. Figure 2-1 summarizes the mission need statement for a comprehensive global information control system. Mission objectives and top-level mission requirements are then derived from the mission statement using an established systematic design approach as described by Larson and Wertz. 1 The mission objectives are presented in figure 2-2.
Figure 2-1. WICS Mission Statement
Figure 2-2. WICS Mission Objectives
Top-level mission requirements for WICS can be derived from the mission objectives. 2 Functional requirements define how well the system must perform to meet its objectives; operational requirements describe how the system operates and how users interact with it to achieve its broad objectives. Constraints are limitations imposed by shortfalls in a system architecture or an outside agency. These requirements will drive the system design.
| Functional Performance Coverage Responsiveness |
Optimized resolution, high bit rates Global coverage, near continuous coverage, mobile targets will require wide area searches High percentage of users connected with "in time" updates |
| Operational Availability Survivability Data Distribution Data Content, Form, and Format |
100 % available Natural and man-made threats Mobile, wireless access from anywhere on globe Information tailored to individual user |
| Constraints Cost Schedule Regulations Interfaces |
Must be affordable Fielded and operational by 2025 International frequency allocations? Must function with existing (in 2025) systems |
Due to the vast quantity of data that will be available from many sources, commanders and war fighters will need a system capable of collecting, processing, and presenting useful information in a timely manner and of providing secure global communications. Information must be presented to a user located anywhere on the globe in time to make meaningful decisions. Advances in information collection and transmission technologies are progressing rapidly. Properly utilizing information will give forces a tremendous advantage in future conflicts. Failure to develop an information control system that includes necessary processing will likely result in information overload, where individuals will not be able to decipher pertinent information from extraneous data and it will become impossible to make rapid, well-informed decisions.
Data is currently acquired through many separate sources. Each source operates independently, and in-time access to worldwide, complete C4I information is not available. There is not a comprehensive system to collect, process, and present the information. For an advanced system to be properly fielded, each individual collection source must be capable of sending information back and forth. This will require future data collection systems to include a common communications package.
Additionally, a comprehensive information control system must be capable of processing data from many different collection points simultaneously. This parallel processing will occur using data from conventional sources such as airborne platforms and space-based imagery, as well as advanced technologies that will be available by 2025. These follow-on systems must be designed to interface with the new information control system.
To process data in near real time, it will be necessary to field a system with artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. Figure 2-3 shows the basic elements of AI (located on the wheel hub) and the corresponding applications (located on the wheel rim). AI is a challenge that must be overcome by a future information control system, especially when considering AI's relatively slow progess in the past 30 years. Machine vision applications could be used to automatically interpret and analyze images (e.g., automatically detecting and identifying potential targets). Problem-solving applications could be used to process multiple source redundancies by passing them through a "data divergence" filter. Conflicting data will be transformed into information, assuring confidence without redundancy. In addition, data from different sources must be compared as a validity cross-check before the redundant data is removed from the information flow. If there is a discrepancy in acquired data, the system must be capable of realizing this and either comparing the data with additional sources or judging the confidence level of the sources to determine which is likely to be accurate. Expert systems applications should be used to prioritize information (i.e., determine what information is critical). And finally, natural-language processing should be used to enhance user-machine interfaces.
Figure 2-3. Elements of Artificial Intelligence
Once data is filtered, it must be automatically sorted by level of interest. All users of an intelligent information control system will not require the same fidelity of information. Clearly, theater commanders and troops in the field will have vastly different demands for the system. To work efficiently, a system of this type must be able to recognize the user and determine what level of fidelity is required. The system must be able to automatically adjust the data product to meet the needs of particular users. At the same time, the user must retain the ability to customize data requests. Giving the system the ability to sort data is vital if individuals at various levels are to avoid "information overload."
The white paper "Information Operations: Wisdom Warfare for 2025" discusses the "models, simulations, software agents, predictive decision aids, planning and execution tools, and archival methods" that must be incorporated in a WICS architecture. 3 Methods such as Markov chains, the fuzzy cognitive map, and chaos theory are on the leading edge of research in the data-processing arena. Advances in these fields must occur and will define the information processing algorithms for WICS.
After data has been collected and processed, it must be effectively presented to the user. This will likely be one of the most difficult technological aspects of the information control system. A challenge for future computer systems will be transferring the burden of interaction from the user to the computer. 4 Every user has unique requirements. As a result, it will be necessary to present information in many different ways. At the highest levels, national command authorities (NCA) must be able to access a database of worldwide information. The database should provide a virtual-reality representation of any geographic region of interest. Additionally, it must be suitable for in-time decision making and for war gaming a number of possible scenarios. Ideally, this should be coupled with war simulation capabilities to allow commanders to see the likely outcomes of their decisions, based on historical data, before they issue a tasking order.
The system for theater and battlefield commanders should essentially be a specialized subset of the capabilities at the NCA level. Information must be condensed to allow for adaptation to dynamic local conditions. The greatest benefit will be derived by using this information to create a virtual battlefield. The theater-level, data-collection system should allow joint task commanders to view a battlefield in near real-time with a high level of fidelity. By being able to visualize the compilation of immense quantities of information, commanders will be able to make well-informed, time-critical decisions.
A very different type of information presentation system will be required for the unit level C4I operations. The operational information control system must be capable of providing information on many different levels. For instance, a unit based in the continental United States may need to see a projected worldview to determine where airborne sorties are located on an overseas flight while simultaneously showing a virtual image of the local traffic pattern to another local user. The output device may not appear very different from the Global Command and Control System (GCCS) that is now being phased in. In fact, this epitomizes what should be a key goal in designing a new C4I system: The infrastructure of the system and its data-processing techniques must remain transparent to the user.
Additionally, units must have a user station that is portable and can be used reliably in a combat environment. The system must be capable of operating from many different platforms, including aircraft, ground assault vehicles, naval vessels, and the individual user. It must be durable, secure, lightweight, and simple to use. This will require additional data-processing and refinement techniques beyond those required at the NCA and theater levels. WICS must be able to tailor information at the receiver end to satisfy individual needs and preferences.
Data collection, processing, and presentation do not constitute a complete information control system. The other component needed is communications. An effective future information control system must give military users the ability to receive and transmit vital information anytime and anywhere. Regardless of the method, the system must satisfy obvious needs for global, mobile, secure, and redundant coverage must be satisfied. Without a comprehensive, reliable communications system, the rest of the information control network will be useless.
