The roles of the US military in 2025 will likely span the entire conceivable spectrum, from internal security and deterrence of major conflict to military operations other than war. The alternate futures of 2025 may find the advancement and growth of technology either constrained or exponential.2 Even with constrained growth in 2025, technological advancements in the next 30 years will be significant. If the US military hopes to remain the world's premier deterrent and fighting force in 2025, it must take advantage of technological advancements to improve on-orbit support.
In 2025, war fighters will operate in an information rich-environment. Both commercial and military sources will provide this abundant information and adversaries will probably exploit the commercial information opportunities. This trend is readily visible today with the commercial sale of 10-meter resolution imagery from the French system probatoire d'observation de la terre (SPOT) satellites, the explosion in commercial communications ventures, and worldwide commercial use of global positioning system (GPS) navigation signals.
Space will be the medium of choice for information collection and dissemination in 2025. The unique capabilities to operate freely at any point above the earth, communicate with other satellites and ground personnel "over the horizon" (using satellite crosslinking), and near simultaneous dissemination of information to numerous users make space systems the premier force-enhancement capability.
If space force enhancement data is widely available commercially, will there be "parity" between nation-states or groups with enough money to buy and exploit this data? Absolutely not-the key will be to quickly gather huge masses of information, assimilate it, and act accordingly.
On-orbit support is a key requirement to deliver the core competency of space dominance. Within on-orbit support, four areas provide the basis for investigating required capabilities for satellites in 2025: support to the war fighter, C3, satellite design, and satellite security.
To support the war fighter of 2025, satellite systems must tighten the
US's observe, orient, decide, and act (OODA) loop (fig. 2-1) to stay well
ahead of the adversary's capabilities.3
This does not mean simply supplying truckloads of data to whomever has
time to read it; the war fighters of 2025 need information that is critical
to the particular mission and they need it at the optimum time. In a high
technology environment the dangers of information overload are real. Information
overload must therefore be avoided.
Figure 2-1. Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act (OODA) Loop
Satellite C3 is another required capability. C3 must be simple, cost-effective, and robust. Communication from earth-to-space or earth-to-earth using satellites is another key to "tightening" the OODA loop. Additionally, increased weapon lethality and miniaturization necessitates the designing of more survivable satellite C3 systems.
Satellite design is another key link to achieving space dominance. Space systems must be smaller, more cost-effective, and more responsive to the customer's needs. Today's limitations of propulsion fuel and satellite electrical power and the susceptibility of electronic components to space radiation, satellite autonomy, and satellite disposal require revolutionary directions to fully "operationalize space." Solutions to these satellite limitations should also drive costs down so that more money can be spent on the "shooters," rather than their supporting platforms in space.
Given the criticality of space support to the war fighters of 2025, the proliferation of commercial satellites, and other nations playing the "space game," satellites become increasingly high-value targets. Satellites in 2025 must employ inherent countermeasures to ensure US space dominance. The solution is not to give satellites armor like M-1 tanks, but to employ active and passive countermeasures where they make sense. If all else fails, plan for attrition-and for recovery of lost capabilities with timely satellite replacement.
On-orbit support is the linchpin to maintaining US space dominance in the 21st century. Aggressive developments in war fighter support from space, satellite C3, design, and security will form the building blocks of the Spacenet 2025 system to meet the requirements and solidify US space dominance in 2025 and beyond.
