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AU-18, Space Handbook, An Analyst's Guide Vol. II. Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University Press, December 1993.

AWS PLAN 813, Appendix I, Annex Alfa. Scott AFB, Ill.: Air Weather Service (MAC), 14 January 1972.

Banks, Peter M. "Overview of Ionospheric Modification from Space Platforms." In Ionospheric Modification and Its Potential to Enhance or Degrade the Performance of Military Systems, AGARD Conference Proceedings 485, October 1990.

Batton, Louis J. Harvesting the Clouds. Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday & Co., 1969.

Brown, William. "Mathematicians Learn How to Tame Chaos." New Scientist, 30 May 1992.

Byers, Horace R. "History of Weather-modification." In Wilmot N. Hess, ed., Weather and Climate Modification. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1974.

Centner, Christopher, et al., "Environmental Warfare: Implications for Policymakers and War Planners." Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air Command and Staff College, May 1995.

Coons, Capt Frank G. "Warm Fog Dispersal-A Different Story." Aerospace Safety 25, no. 10 (October 1969).

CJCSI 3810.01, Meteorological and Oceanographic Operations, 10 January 1995.

Dawson, George. "An Introduction to Atmospheric Energy." In Wilmot N. Hess, ed., Weather and Climate Modification. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1974.

Duncan, Lewis M., and Robert L. Showen "Review of Soviet Ionospheric Modification Research." In Ionospheric Modification and Its Potential to Enhance or Degrade the Performance of Military Systems AGARD Conference Proceedings 485, October 1990.

Dwyer, Maj Roy. Category III or Fog Dispersal, M-U 35582-7 D993a. Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University Press, May 1972.

Eisenhower, Dwight E. "Crusade in Europe" quoted in John F. Fuller, ed., Thor's Legions. Boston: American Meterology Society, 1990.

Facts on File 55, No. 2866 (2 November 1995).

Frisby, E. M. "Weather-modification in Southeast Asia, 1966-1972." The Journal Of Weather-modification 14, no. 1 (April 1982).

Frisby, E. M. "Weather-modification in Southeast Asia, 1966-1972." Journal of Applied Meteorology 15 (April 1976).

Gray, William M., et al. "Weather-modification by Carbon Dust Absorption of Solar Energy." Journal of Applied Meteorology 15, (April 1976).

Halacy, Daniel S. The Weather Changers. New York: Harper & Row, 1968.

Hall, J. Storrs. "Overview of Nanotechnology" Adapted from papers by Ralph C. Merkle and K. Eric Drexler. Internet address: http://nanotech.rutgers.edu/nanotech/-intro.html (Rutgers University, November 1995).

Horner, Gen Charles. "Space Seen as Challenge, Military's Final Frontier" (Prepared Statement to the Senate Armed Services Committee) Defense Issues, 22 April 1993.

Hume, Capt Edward E., Jr. Atmospheric and Space Environmental Research Programs in Brazil (U), March 1993. Foreign Aerospace Science and Technology Center, AF Intelligence Command, 24 September 1992. (Secret) Information extracted is unclassified.

James, G. E. "Chaos Theory: The Essentials for Military Applications" ACSC Theater Air Campaign Studies Coursebook, AY96, Vol. 8. Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University Press, 1995.

Jiusto, James E. "Some Principles of Fog Modification with Hygroscopic Nuclei" Progress of NASA Research on Warm Fog Properties and Modification Concepts, NASA SP-212. Washington, D.C.: Scientific and Technical Information Division of the Office of Technology Utilization of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1969.

Johnson, Capt Mike. Upper Atmospheric Research and Modification-Former Soviet Union (U) supporting document DST-18205-475-92, Foreign Aerospace Science and Technology Center, AF Intelligence Command, 24 September 1992. (Secret) Information extracted is unclassified.

Kasemir, Heinz W. "Lightning Suppression by Chaff Seeding and Triggered Lightning." In Wilmot N. Hess, ed., Weather and Climate Modification. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1974.

Keaney, Thomas A., and Eliot A. Cohen, Gulf War Air Power Survey Summary Report. Washington D.C.: GPO, 1993.

Klein, Milton M. A Feasibility Study of the Use of Radiant Energy for Fog Dispersal Abstract. Hanscom AFB, Mass.: Air Force Material Command, October 1978.

Kocmond, Warren C. "Dissipation of Natural Fog in the Atmosphere," Progress of NASA Research on Warm Fog Properties and Modification Concepts, NASA SP-212. Washington, D.C.: Scientific and Technical Information Division of the Office of Technology Utilization of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1969.

Kossey, Paul A., et al. "Artificial Ionospheric Mirrors (AIM) A. Concept and Issues," In Ionospheric Modification and its Potential to Enhance or Degrade the Performance of Military Systems, AGARD Conference Proceedings 485, October 1990.

Maehlum, B. N., and J. Troim, "Vehicle Charging in Low Density Plasmas" In Ionospheric Modification and Its Potential to Enhance or Degrade the Performance of Military Systems AGARD Conference Proceedings 485, October 1990.

McLare, James. Pulp & Paper 68, no. 8, August 1994.

Meyer, William B. "The Life and Times of US Weather: What Can We Do About It?" American Heritage 37, no. 4 (June/July 1986).

Petersen, Rear Adm Sigmund. "NOAA Moves Toward The 21st Century." The Military Engineer 20, no. 571 (June-July 1995).

Riley, Lt Col Gerald F. Staff Weather Officer to CENTCOM OIC of CENTAF Weather Support Force and Commander of 3d Weather Squadron. In "Desert Shield/Desert Storm Interview Series," interviewed by Dr William E. Narwyn, AWS Historian, 29 May 1991.

Seagraves, Mary Ann, and Richard Szymber "Weather a Force Multiplier." Military Review, November/December 1995.

SPACECAST 2020. Space Weather Support for Communications White paper G. Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air War College/2020, 1994.

Stuart, Gene S. "Whirlwinds and Thunderbolts," In Nature on the Rampage. Washington D.C.: National Geographic Society, 1986.

Sullivan, Gen Gordon R. "Moving into the 21st Century: America's Army and Modernization" Military Review. July 1993. Quoted in Mary Ann Seagraves and Richard Szymber "Weather a Force Multiplier" Military Review, November/December 1995.

Sutherland, Robert A. "Results of Man-Made Fog Experiment," In Proceedings of the 1991 Battlefield Atmospherics Conference. Fort Bliss, Tex.: Hinman Hall, 3-6 December 1991.

Tascione, Thomas F. Introduction to the Space Environment. Colorado Springs: USAF Academy Department of Physics, 1984.Tomlinson, Edward M., Kenneth C. Young, and Duane D. Smith Laser Technology Applications for Dissipation of Warm Fog at Airfields, PL-TR-92-2087. Hanscom AFB, Mass.: Air Force Materiel Command, 1992.

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Notes

1. The weather-modification capabilities described in this paper are consistent with the operating environments and missions relevant for aerospace forces in 2025 as defined by AF/LR, a long-range planning office reporting to the CSAF [based on AF/LR PowerPoint briefing "Air and Space Power Framework for Strategy Development (jda-2lr.ppt)]."

2. General Gordon R. Sullivan, "Moving into the 21st Century: America's Army and Modernization," Military Review (July 1993) quoted in Mary Ann Seagraves and Richard Szymber, "Weather a Force Multiplier," Military Review, November/December 1995, 75.

3. Gen Gordon R. Sullivan, "Moving into the 21st Century: America's Army and Modernization," Military Review (July 1993) quoted in Mary Ann Seagraves and Richard Szymber, "Weather a Force Multiplier," Military Review, November/December 1995, 75.

4. Horace R. Byers, "History of Weather-modification," in Wilmot N. Hess, ed. Weather and Climate Modification, (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1974), 4.

5. William B. Meyer, "The Life and Times of US Weather: What Can We Do About It?" American Heritage 37, no. 4 (June/July 1986), 48.

6. Byers, 13.

7. US Department of State, The Department of State Bulletin. 74, no. 1981 (13 June 1977): 10.

8. Dwight D Eisenhower. "Crusade in Europe," quoted in John F. Fuller, Thor's Legions (Boston: American Meterology Society, 1990), 67.

9. Interview of Lt Col Gerald F. Riley, Staff Weather Officer to CENTCOM OIC of CENTAF Weather Support Force and Commander of 3rd Weather Squadron, in "Desert Shield/Desert Storm Interview Series," by Dr William E. Narwyn, AWS Historian, 29 May 1991.

10. Thomas A. Keaney and Eliot A. Cohen. Gulf War Air Power Survey Summary Report (Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1993), 172.

11. Herbert S. Appleman, An Introduction to Weather-modification (Scott AFB, Ill.: Air Weather Service/MAC, September 1969), 1.

12. William Bown, "Mathematicians Learn How to Tame Chaos," New Scientist, 30 May 1992, 16.

13. CJCSI 3810.01, Meteorological and Oceanographic Operations, 10 January 95. This CJCS Instruction establishes policy and assigns responsibilities for conducting meteorological and oceanographic operations. It also defines the terms widespread, long-lasting, and severe, in order to identify those activities that US forces are prohibited from conducting under the terms of the UN Environmental Modification Convention. Widespread is defined as encompassing an area on the scale of several hundred km; long-lasting means lasting for a period of months, or approximately a season; and severe involves serious or significant disruption or harm to human life, natural and economic resources, or other assets.

14. Concern about the unintended consequences of attempting to "control" the weather is well justified. Weather is a classic example of a chaotic system (i.e., a system that never exactly repeats itself). A chaotic system is also extremely sensitive: minuscule differences in conditions greatly affect outcomes. According to Dr. Glenn James, a widely published chaos expert, technical advances may provide a means to predict when weather transitions will occur and the magnitude of the inputs required to cause those transitions; however, it will never be possible to precisely predict changes that occur as a result of our inputs. The chaotic nature of weather also limits our ability to make accurate long-range forecasts. The renowned physicist Edward Teller recently presented calculations he performed to determine the long-range weather forecasting improvement that would result from a satellite constellation providing continuous atmospheric measurements over a 1 km2 grid worldwide. Such a system, which is currently cost-prohibitive, would only improve long-range forecasts from the current five days to approximately 14 days. Clearly, there are definite physical limits to mankind's ability to control nature, but the extent of those physical limits remains an open question. Sources: G. E. James, "Chaos Theory: The Essentials for Military Applications," in ACSC Theater Air Campaign Studies Coursebook, AY96, 8 (Maxwell AFB, Ala: Air University Press, 1995), 1-64. The Teller calculations are cited in Reference 49 of this source.

15. SPACECAST 2020, Space Weather Support for Communications, white paper G (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air War College/2020, 1994).

16. Rear Adm Sigmund Petersen, "NOAA Moves Toward The 21st Century," The Military Engineer 20, no. 571 (June-July 1995): 44.

17. Ibid.

18. William Brown, "Mathematicians Learn How to Tame Chaos," New Scientist (30 May 1992): 16.

19. A pilot program known as Project Popeye conducted in 1966 attempted to extend the monsoon season in order to increase the amount of mud on the Ho Chi Minh trail thereby reducing enemy movements. A silver iodide nuclei agent was dispersed from WC-130, F4 and A-1E aircraft into the clouds over portions of the trail winding from North Vietnam through Laos and Cambodia into South Vietnam. Positive results during this initial program led to continued operations from 1967 to 1972. While the effects of this program remain disputed, some scientists believe it resulted in a significant reduction in the enemy's ability to bring supplies into South Vietnam along the trail. E. M. Frisby, "Weather-modification in Southeast Asia, 1966-1972," The Journal of Weather-modification 14, no. 1 (April 1982): 1-3.

20. William M. Gray et al., "Weather-modification by Carbon Dust Absorption of Solar Energy," Journal of Applied Meteorology 15 (April 1976): 355.

21. Ibid.

22. Ibid.

23. Ibid., 367.

24. AWS PLAN 813 Appendix I Annex Alfa (Scott AFB, Ill.: Air Weather Service/(MAC) 14 January 1972), 11. Hereafter cited as Annex Alfa.

25. Capt Frank G. Coons, "Warm Fog Dispersal-A Different Story," Aerospace Safety 25, no. 10 (October 1969): 16.

26. Annex Alfa, 14.

27. Warren C. Kocmond, "Dissipation of Natural Fog in the Atmosphere," Progress of NASA Research on Warm Fog Properties and Modification Concepts, NASA SP-212 (Washington, D.C.: Scientific and Technical Information Division of the Office of Technology Utilization of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1969), 74.

28. James E. Jiusto, "Some Principles of Fog Modification with Hygrosopic Nuclei," Progress of NASA Research on Warm Fog Properties and Modification Concepts, NASA SP-212 (Washington, D.C.: Scientific and Technical Information Division of the Office of Technology Utilization of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1969), 37.

29. Maj Roy Dwyer, Category III or Fog Dispersal, M-U 35582-7 D993a c.1 (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University Press, May 1972), 51.

30. James McLare, Pulp & Paper 68, no. 8 (August 1994): 79.

31. Milton M. Klein, A Feasibility Study of the Use of Radiant Energy for Fog Dispersal, Abstract (Hanscom AFB, Mass.: Air Force Material Command, October 1978).

32. Edward M. Tomlinson, Kenneth C. Young, and Duane D. Smith, Laser Technology Applications for Dissipation of Warm Fog at Airfields, PL-TR-92-2087 (Hanscom AFB, Mass.: Air Force Material Command, 1992).

33. J. Storrs Hall, "Overview of Nanotechnology," adapted from papers by Ralph C. Merkle and K. Eric Drexler, Internet address: http://nanotech.rutgers.edu/nanotech-/intro.html, Rutgers University, November 1995.

34. Robert A. Sutherland, "Results of Man-Made Fog Experiment," Proceedings of the 1991 Battlefield Atmospherics Conference (Fort Bliss, Tex.: Hinman Hall, 3-6 December 1991).

35. Christopher Centner et al., "Environmental Warfare: Implications for Policymakers and War Planners" (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air Command and Staff College, May 1995), 39.

36. Louis J. Battan, Harvesting the Clouds (Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday & Co., 1960), 120.

37. Facts on File 55, no. 2866 (2 November 95).

38. Gene S. Stuart, "Whirlwinds and Thunderbolts," Nature on the Rampage (Washington, D.C.: National Geographic Society, 1986), 130.

39. Ibid., 140.

40. Heinz W. Kasemir, "Lightning Suppression by Chaff Seeding and Triggered Lightning," in Wilmot N. Hess, ed., Weather and Climate Modification (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1974), 623-628.

41. SPACECAST 2020, Space Weather Support for Communications, white paper G, (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air War College/2020, 1994).

42. Gen Charles Horner, "Space Seen as Challenge, Military's Final Frontier," Defense Issues, (Prepared Statement to the Senate Armed Services Committee), 22 April 1993, 7.

43. Lewis M. Duncan and Robert L. Showen, "Review of Soviet Ionospheric Modification Research," in Ionospheric Modification and Its Potential to Enhance or Degrade the Performance of Military Systems,(AGARD Conference Proceedings 485, October, 1990), 2-1.

44. Ibid.

45. Peter M. Banks, "Overview of Ionospheric Modification from Space Platforms," in Ionospheric Modification and Its Potential to Enhance or Degrade the Performance of Military Systems (AGARD Conference Proceedings 485, October 1990) 19-1.

46. Capt Mike Johnson, Upper Atmospheric Research and Modification-Former Soviet Union (U), DST-18205-475-92 (Foreign Aerospace Science and Technology Center, AF Intelligence Command, 24 September 1992), 3. (Secret) Information extracted is unclassified.

47. Capt Edward E. Hume, Jr., Atmospheric and Space Environmental Research Programs in Brazil (U) (Foreign Aerospace Science and Technology Center, AF Intelligence Command, March 1993), 12. (Secret) Information extracted is unclassified.

48. Paul A. Kossey et al. "Artificial Ionospheric Mirrors (AIM)," in Ionospheric Modification and Its Potential to Enhance or Degrade the Performance of Military Systems (AGARD Conference Proceedings 485, October 1990), 17A-1.

49. Ibid., 17A-7.

50. Ibid., 17A-10.

51. B. N. Maehlum and J. Troim, "Vehicle Charging in Low Density Plasmas," in Ionospheric Modification and Its Potential to Enhance or Degrade the Performance of Military Systems (AGARD Conference Proceedings 485, October 1990), 24-1.

52. Hall.

53. Mary Ann Seagraves and Richard Szymber, "Weather a Force Multiplier," Military Review, November/December 1995, 69.

54. Daniel S. Halacy, The Weather Changers (New York: Harper & Row, 1968), 202.

55. William Brown, "Mathematicians Learn How to Tame Chaos," New Scientist, 30 May 1992, 16.

56. AU-18, Space Handbook, An Analyst's Guide Vol. II. (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University Press, December 1993), 196.

57. Thomas F. Tascione, Introduction to the Space Environment (Colorado Springs: USAF Academy Department of Physics, 1984), 175.

58. SPACECAST 2020, Space Weather Support for Communications, white paper G, (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air War College/2020, 1994).

59. Referenced in ibid.


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