Catastrophic Health Insurance for Planet Earth
A Research Paper
Air Force 2025
COL (Sel) John M. Urias (USA)
Ms. Iole M. DeAngelis
Maj Donald A. Ahern
Maj Jack S. Caszatt
Maj George W. Fenimore III
Mr. Michael J. Wadzinski
2025 is a study designed to comply with a directive from the chief of staff of the Air Force to examine the concepts, capabilities, and technologies the United States will require to remain the dominant air and space force in the future. Presented on 17 June 1996, this report was produced in the Department of Defense school environment of academic freedom and in the interest of advancing concepts related to national defense. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States government.
This report contains fictional representations of future situations/scenarios. Any similarities to real people or events, other than those specifically cited, are unintentional and are for purposes of illustration only. It should be duely noted that at this time Planetary Defense is not an assigned or approved mission for the United States Department of Defense or the United States Air Force.
This publication has been reviewed by security and policy review authorities, is unclassified, and is cleared for public release.
When we learned that our team had been assigned the topic of "Planetary Defense," we admittedly did what most people do when they first consider the subject: we laughed. This phenomenon is commonly referred to as the giggle factor, and we have seen it many times during the ensuing months of our research and briefings. However, once we immersed ourselves in the data and began to work directly with several of the growing number of astronomers and scientists actively working this problem, our laughs were quickly replaced with concern. Our concern was based not only on the prospects of the earth being confronted with the crisis of an impending impact of a large asteroid or comet but the fact that such impacts occur far more frequently than most people realize, and that the global community, although becoming increasingly serious about this threat, currently lacks the capability to adequately detect or mitigate these extraterrestrial objects. More importantly, however, is the fact that the impact of a relatively small asteroid would, in all likelihood, cause catastrophic damage and loss of life-even the possible extinction of the human race! Once we understood the magnitude and seriousness of the planetary defense problem, our initial laughs were quickly replaced with many hours of research and brainstorming as we pondered the issue of developing and deploying a planetary defense system, a goal that has become our personal crusade.
In accomplishing this team project, we received invaluable help from several people which was critical to the success of our study. We thank our faculty advisors, Col Vic Budura of the United States Air Force Air War College and Maj Doug Johnston of the United States Air Force Air Command and Staff College, for their insight and support throughout the project. We also thank Mike McKim of the Air War College for his dedicated assistance in our research efforts. Additionally, we wish to thank Col Mike Kozak, Lt Col Larry Boyer, Capt John Vice, and SSgt Brian Sommers of the 2025 Support Office for their dedication and responsiveness to our many administrative requirements. We also thank our foreign teammate, Ms Iole De Angelis of the International Space University, for her tireless energy and valuable European perspective, especially regarding the treaty implications of deploying a planetary defense system. From a technical perspective, we thank Drs Tom Gehrels and Jim Scotti of the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, and Ms Shirley Petty and John Plencner of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for their willingness to share results of their recent research and workshops with us as well as to serve as sounding boards for our ideas. Finally, we extend a special thanks to our families for their understanding and patience during our many hours away from home. We could not have succeeded without them.
Concern exists among an increasing number of scientists throughout the world regarding the possibility of a catastrophic event caused by an impact of a large earth-crossing object (ECO) on the Earth-Moon System (EMS), be it an asteroid or comet. Such events, although rare for large objects (greater than 1 kilometer diameter), are not unprecedented. Indeed, the great upheaval and resulting ice age that marked the extinction of the dinosaurs is thought to have been caused by the impact of a 10 km diameter asteroid. In 1908 a stony asteroid of approximately 50 meters diameter exploded in the air above the Tunguska River in Siberia, producing an equivalent yield of 15-30 megatons of TNT, and leveling over 2,000 square miles of dense forest. Such an event is thought to occur approximately every century. It is only a matter of time before the world finds itself in a crisis situation-a crisis involving the detection of a large ECO, leaving little time to react and resulting in global panic, chaos, and possible catastrophe.
Collectively as a global community, no current viable capability exists to defend the EMS against a large ECO, leaving its inhabitants vulnerable to possible death and destruction of untold proportion and even possible extinction of the human race. In this regard, a planetary defense system (PDS) capability should be resourced, developed, and deployed. At this time Planetary Defense is not an assigned or approved mission of the Department of Defense or the Air Force. Such a system would consist of a detection subsystem, command, control, communications, computer, and intelligence (C4I) subsystem and a mitigation subsystem. There are many potential variations of these subsystems which, with advances in novel technologies, will be available by 2025 to develop a credible PDS. We propose a three-tier system developed sequentially in time and space. Such a system would serve not only as a means to preserve life on earth, but also help to unite the global community in a common effort that would promote peaceful cooperation and economic prosperity as related spin-offs and dual uses of novel technologies evolve.
If some day in the future we discover well in advance that an asteroid that is big enough to cause a mass extinction is going to hit the Earth, and then we alter the course of that asteroid so that it does not hit us, it will be one of the most important accomplishments in all of human history.
-Sen George E. Brown, Jr.
The Earth-Moon System (EMS) and its inhabitants are in danger. It is not the kind of danger that most people are familiar with such as disease, pestilence, or the threat of nuclear war, but one that is rapidly moving to the forefront of scientific research, exploration, and analysis-the very real hazard of a large earth-crossing object (ECO) impacting on the EMS. As the Earth revolves around the Sun, it periodically passes close to orbiting asteroids and comets, producing near-earth-object (NEO) situations. When asteroid or comet orbits intersect the orbit of the earth, they are referred to as ECOs. Clearly, a global effort is needed to deal with this problem and to provide perhaps the only means of preserving the human race from possible extinction.
Building on the 1993 SPACECAST 2020 Study, this paper describes new research and analysis on the magnitude of the threat and possible mitigation systems.1 It then proposes a mission statement and outlines the basic capability required in a functional planetary defense system (PDS). This "system of systems" is described in detail, working through the detection, analysis, and mitigation subsystems that comprise the PDS. Included in this development are novel concepts using new technologies and capabilities expected to be available in the years prior to 2025, facilitating a variety of courses of action, and moving the community away from the less-than-desirable nuclear solution. It also provides, an overall concept of operations which describes how these subsystems work together to provide the needed capability against threat objects from space. A three-tier system is proposed. Several commercial applications and benefits are considered as spin-offs or as dual-use capabilities of the PDS. Finally, specific recommendations are provided which are keyed toward generating increased interest, emphasis, funding, research, development, and deployment of a PDS to deal with this rare but potentially catastrophic problem.
The earth lies at the center of a cosmic shooting gallery consisting of asteroids and comets, racing through space at velocities relative to the earth of up to 75 times the speed of sound.2 These extraterrestrial objects are material left over from the formation of the solar system; basically, they are material that never coalesced into planets. Asteroids are rocky and metallic objects that orbit the Sun, ranging in diameter from mere pebbles to about 1,000 kilometers. They are generally found in a main orbital belt between Mars and Jupiter. Comets, on the other hand, contain ice, clay, and organic matter and are commonly referred to as "dirty snowballs" because of their opaque appearance. Like asteroids, comets orbit the sun, typically in highly elliptical or even parabolic orbits.
Although ECO impacts involving large asteroids or comets are rare, they do occur. When they do, they have the potential for causing catastrophic destruction and loss of life. It is currently estimated that more than 2,000 ECOs in excess of 0.5 km in diameter do exist. Given the inadequate deep space detection capability, only a small percentage of these objects have been classified. Disturbingly, a sizable number of these potential threat objects are quite large. Ceres, for example, is 974 km in diameter and is currently the largest of the classified asteroids. Approximately 20 other asteroids fall into this mega-threat category. With the natural gravitational perturbations created by the planets, it is inevitable that one or more of these objects will someday impact the EMS.
Geologic history is replete with examples of actual ECO impacts. Indeed, many scientists argue that it was the impact of a huge asteroid, perhaps as large as 10 km in diameter, that created a global dust cloud and ultimately triggered climactic changes that caused the extinction of dinosaurs and up to 75 percent of other species then on earth. This event, called the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) Impact, is believed to have produced an equivalent yield of 108 megatons of TNT.3 Ancient writings and drawings contain numerous accounts of objects falling from the sky, causing death and destruction. A size and impact versus frequency graph is included as figure 1-1.
During the twentieth century, several impacts and near misses have been
recorded. In 1908 a stony asteroid of approximately 50 meters in diameter
exploded in the air above the Tunguska River in Siberia, producing an equivalent
TNT yield of 15-30 megatons (MT) and leveling over 2,000 square miles of
dense forest. Needless to say, had the Tunguska event occurred over a populated
city, the results would have been catastrophic. In 1937 and again in 1989,
large asteroids passed uncomfortably close to the earth. The 1989 asteroid
would have unleashed the equivalent of more than 40,000 megaton of TNT
had it impacted. More recently, in 1994, astronomers cautiously watched
as a small asteroid missed the earth by only 60,000 miles. In 1996 comet
Hyakutake passed within 9 million miles of earth (0.1 astronomical units
(AU)), the nearest comet approach in six centuries, yet this body was discovered
only three months prior to its closest approach to earth.4
Figure 1-1. Asteroid Size/Impact Versus Frequency
The earth continues to be struck by objects from space at irregular intervals, most of which are small pebble-sized rocks weighing only a few milligrams. Scientists estimate that a large number of meteoroids (asteroids that impact earth) enter the earth's atmosphere daily, amounting to several hundred tons of material each year.5 Based on recent analysis, coupled with the exploration of over 120 impact craters on earth, researchers now believe that collisions involving large objects occur within centuries and millennia versus millions and billions of years, as originally estimated.6 Additionally, data now indicates that multiple impacts are more common than previously thought. Although these frequencies of occurrence may seem to be inconsequential, requiring virtually no action or concern, the catastrophic effects associated with only one of these events demand that the global community unite to develop a defensive capability.
Due to a lack of awareness and emphasis, the world is not socially, economically, or politically prepared to deal with the vulnerability of the EMS-to-ECO impacts and their potential consequences. Further, in terms of existing capabilities, there is currently a lack of adequate means of detection, command, control, communications, computers, and intelligence (C4I), and mitigation.
Few people are even aware of an ECO problem, much less the potential consequences associated with its impact on the EMS. However, there are hopeful signs in correcting this deficiency as more frequent Planetary Defense workshops are being conducted with active participation by an increasing number of major countries. Nevertheless, other than a congressional mandate requiring further study of the problem, no further globally sanctioned action has been taken.
In terms of courses of action in the event of a likely impact of an ECO, other than a nuclear option, no defensive capability exists today. However, new technologies may yield safer and more cost-effective solutions by 2025. These authors contend that the stakes are simply too high not to pursue direct and viable solutions to the ECO problem. Indeed, the survival of humanity is at stake.
Contents | 1 | 2 | 3a | 3b | 3c | 4 | 5 | Bibliography
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