From: Ted Molczan (molczan@hotmail.com) Subject: Re: ? Examples of other 'fake space' claims by governments? Newsgroups: sci.space.history Date: 2002-12-04 04:49:45 PST thomsona@flash.net (Allen Thomson) wrote in message news:<501f9880.0212011058.2232b680@posting.google.com>... > mattwriter@aol.com (MattWriter) wrote > Along these lines is the continuing question about whether the Soviets, > pre-Kampiles, thought the first KH-11/KENNAN was an imaging spysat or > a SIGINT bird. If they thought SIGINT, did the US do anything to > encourage that belief? Based on the first KH-11's orbit and manoeuvres, the Soviets should have recognized it as an imaging recon sat well before they purchased its technical manual from William Kampiles. - KH 11-1 was launched using the same booster as KH 9, and western analysts believed it to have been about the same size and mass as the KH 9. - KH 11-1 was launched into one of the KH-9's two standard sun-sunchronous orbital planes. - KH 11-1's orbit was much higher than KH-9's (its perigee height was about the same as KH-9's apogee height); however, it would not have required a great leap in logic to guess that improved sensor technology had enabled the use of a higher orbit, thus reducing drag and providing a longer orbital life. - KH 11-1 manoeuvred four times prior to 1978 Mar 02, when Kampiles handed the KH 11 technical manual to the Soviets. At the very least, those manoeuvres would have made clear that the satellite was alive. The circumstances and effects of two of the manoeuvres were clearly indicative of orbital maintenance. The satellite was launched on 1976 Dec 19, into a 253 km X 541 km orbit, inclined at 96.95 deg. Four days later, it manoeuvred for the first time, raising its perigee, resulting in a 348 km by 541 km orbit. It remained in this orbit for about 3 months, during which the apogee decayed slightly to about 537 km. This lower drag orbit may have been chosen to conserve propellant while the new spacecraft was checked out and calibrated. On 1977 Mar 27, KH 11-1 manoeuvred for the second time, dropping its perigee to the operational altitude, resulting in a 270 km X 537 km orbit. The lower perigee greatly increased the rate of decay, so that by 1977 Aug 15, the apogee had decreased to 476 km, setting the stage for the third manoeuvre, on 1977 Aug 19, a re-boost, which resulted in a 270 km X 528 km orbit, nearly restoring the orbit of 1977 Mar 27. By 1978 Jan 03, the apogee had decayed to 454 km. Sometime during the following six days, the satellite manoeuvred for the fourth time, to restore the apogee, resulting in a 263 km X 534 km orbit. The Soviets should have recognized these periodic re-boosts as orbit maintenance of an imaging recon sat in a low perigee orbit. One account of the alleged Soviet confusion, attributed to Robert C. Toth, is found in Jeff Richelson's book, America's Secret Eyes in Space, on page 170: "The Soviets knew the schedule of the United States' KH-9 spy satellite to the minute, and when it flew over the Uzbekistan missile center everything was tucked out of sight. But a few hours later, another U.S. satellite, the KH-11, passed over the same field and caught an aerospace glider out in plain view - giving U.S. intelligence its first evidence that the Soviets were making a craft similar to the U.S. space shuttle. The Soviets had been *tricked* into believing the second satellite was electronically dead." One big problem with Toth's account is that "electronically dead" satellites do not manoeuvre, as KH 11-1 had done four times during its first year in orbit. Another problem is that it was impossible for KH 11-1 to have followed behind a KH 9, or any other U.S. imaging reconsat, by as much as a "few hours". True, three such spacecraft were in orbit during various periods after the launch of KH 11-1 and prior to Kampiles' traitorous act: KH 8-48 1977 Mar 13 - May 26 KH 9-13 1977 Jun 27 - Dec 23 KH 8-49 1977 Sep 23 - Dec 08 However, all three spacecraft were launched at the same time of day as KH 11-1, from VAFB, into sun-synchronous orbits; therefore, all three shared the same orbital plane as KH 11-1. As a result, all would have passed any point on Earth within a span of about 90 minutes. This means that KH 11-1 and any one of the other three satellites could not ever have been separated by more than about 45 minutes. Based on the foregoing, I find it difficult to believe that the Soviets had not figured out that the mission of the first KH-11 months, perhaps one year, before Kampiles sold them its technical manual. This in no way justifies Kampiles actions - the manual must have contained at least some information that would have been useful to the Soviets. Ted Molczan