Program Element: 0603216C/0603217C Project Number: 3201

PE Title: Theater Missile Defense/Ballistic Missile Defense (U) Budget Activity: 03

Adv Technology Dev (U)

February 1994

A. (U) RESOURCES: ($ in Thousands)

Project Title: Architecture & Studies

FY1993 FY1994 FY1995 FY1996 FY1997 FY1998 FY1999 Total

Program Name: Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Program

0603216C RDT&E 32,605 26,675 42,161 48,361 51,980 59,138 51,281 Continuing

0603217C RDT&E 34,647 11,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 Continuing

B. (U) BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF MISSION REQUIREMENT AND SYSTEM CAPABILITIES:

(U) This project performs systems analyses in three broad areas: 1) theater missile defense architectures, 2) alternative ballistic missile defense architectures and concepts, and 3) mission analyses and simulations.

(U) The theater missile defense analyses involve a wide variety of boost-phase intercept implementations, joint BMC3I architecture trades, attack operations concepts, functional studies for allied applications, plans and techniques for integration across theater missile defense pillars, and examinations of how new theater missile defenses will integrate into existing US and allied air defense architectures.

(U) The alternative ballistic missile architectures and concepts area conducts independent studies of element designs, architecture performance, alternative architectures and their performance, architecture costs, and insertion of emerging technologies into the system elements to reduce costs and increase effectiveness.

(U) Mission analyses and simulations focus on definition of ballistic missile defense concepts; the impact of these concepts on international stability, deterrence, and arms control; and strategic and tactical effectiveness of proposed architectures.

(U) This project includes funding in FY93 for project 3210. Project 3210 is not funded in FY94 or FY95.

(U) This project is assigned to the Budget Activity and Program Element codes as identified in this descriptive summary in accordance with existing Department of Defense policy. Further justification of the Budget Activity code assigned to each Program Element is contained within the Brief Description of Element section of each Program Element Summary.

C. (U) PROGRAM ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND PLANS:

(U) FY 1993 Accomplishments:

TMD Architectures ($31.705M)

o Completed Pillar Integration Working Group

o Conducted Army active defense integration analysis for near-, mid-, and far-term capabilities to develop integration and inter-operability requirements of upper and lower tiers within the active defense pillar, between active defense and the other pillars, and with joint service capabilities.

o Produced interface documentation for the active defense system of systems.

o Defined C3I architecture based on design details from THAAD and GBR.

o Refined and added additional features to end-to-end AI-based BM threat discrimination demonstrator; added situational assessment and mobile target locator to extend AI-based Data Fusion demonstrator into C2 demonstrator; conducted excursions and experiments with rule sets on BMDO testbeds.

o Supported Israeli ATBM systems engineering analysis of TBM defense architecture.

o Supported collaborative European ATBM system analysis.

Alternative BMD Architectures and Concepts ($13.915M)

o Developed Battle Management/C3 concepts for National Missile Defense.

o Completed Theater Defense Scoping Study which put in context the relationship between Active Defense and the other elements of Theater Missile Defense.

o Examined initial NMD architecture alternatives in detail.

o Determined interceptor radiation hardness requirements.

o Examined lethality issues with respect to interceptor warheads and hit-to-kill aimpoint selection and recommended improvements to the current development programs.

o Determined the ability of Brilliant Eyes to provide discrimination and kill assessment.

Mission Analyses and Simulations ($4.664M)

o Conducted analysis of target handover from surveillance sensor to interceptor.

o Conducted head-to-head comparison of simulation models to determine strengths and weaknesses of each.

o Continued deterrence and third world mission analysis.

o Participated in wargaming, strategic gaming, simulations, and expert roundtables.

o Maintained and enhanced the Mission Effectiveness Model (MEM) and Exo-atmospheric Discrimination Simulation (XoDis) to support ongoing system analysis and studies.

(U) FY 1994 Plans:

TMD Architectures ($26.675M)

o Complete the cooperative UK architecture studies.

o Continue Army active defense integration studies to complete interface documentation for the PATRIOT and UOES elements of UTTMDS.

o Continue development of AI-based fusion and situation assessment demonstrator.

o Continue development of an end-to-end AI-based BM threat discrimination demonstrator.

o Initiate study of Israeli-developed concepts for boost phase intercept.

o Participate in EUCOM, PACOM, and CENTCOM TMD exercises to assess interface/operational requirements issues.

o Support Israeli ATBM systems engineering analysis of TBM defense architecture elements.

o Support CONOPS development and conduct related campaign analyses.

o Conduct engineering analysis for airborne sensor and C2 concepts and related TMD integration.

Alternative BMD Architectures and Concepts ($9.75M)

o Comparison of the government baseline and specific contractor element designs will be made in order to update architecture performance previously determined.

o Continue investigations of special topics and unique system concepts.

o Evaluate advanced technology concepts such as the designs of fire-and-forget interceptors that can engage targets using only early warning sensor data.

o Examine ability of radars to do kill assessment.

o Kill assessment algorithms for Brilliant Eyes satellite will be developed.

o Sensitivity of element designs to threat assumptions and operational performance requirements will be determined.

Mission Analyses and Simulations ($1.25M)

o Conduct stability analyses for BMD.

o Conduct strategic and theater wargaming.

o Maintain and enhance the Mission Effectiveness Model (MEM) and Exo-atmospheric Discrimination Simulation (XoDis) to support ongoing system analysis and studies.

(U) FY 1995 Plans:

TMD Architectures ($42.161M)

o Support a cooperative ATBM systems analysis with the UK.

o Complete study of Israeli-developed concepts for boost phase intercept.

o Produce enhanced knowledge-based system prototype.

o Participate in exercises.

o Support Israeli ATBM systems engineering analysis.

o Conduct functional analyses for design and integration of sensors and C4I in theater.

o Conduct functional analyses for dual-path warning information for theater.

o Support integration of spare assets within TMD through CONOPS refinements and interface specifications.

o Support EADTB/TACCSF testbed operations through simulations and engineering analyses.

Alternative BMD Architectures and Concepts ($8M)

o Comparison of the government baseline and specific contractor element designs will be made in order to update architecture performance previously determined.

o Continue investigations of special topics and unique system concepts.

o Evaluate advanced technology concepts.

Mission Analyses and Simulations ($0M)

o Conduct studies of Allied and Russian views on BMD issues.

o Conduct stability analyses for BMD.

o Conduct theater and strategic simulations, expert roundtables, and wargames.

o Conduct counter-proliferation analyses for theater and strategic BMD.

o Maintain the Mission Effectiveness Model (MEM) and the Exoatmospheric Discrimination Simulation (XoDis).

o Conduct model and simulation assessments and validations.

(U) Program Plan to Completion: This is a continuing program.

D. (U) WORK PERFORMED BY:

TMD Architectures

o Air Combat Command - Langley, VA (USAF)

o Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity, APL, MD

o ASC - Wright-Patterson AFB, OH

o Ballistic Research Lab, APL, MD

o BDM - Huntsville, AL

o CAS, Coleman Research Corporation - Huntsville, AL

o ESC - Boston, MA

o GRC - Washington, DC

o LTV Missiles and Electronics Group - Dallas, TX

o MCRADC - Quantico, VA (USMC)

o Mitsubishi Heavy Industry - Japan

o MRJ - Vienna, VA

o NRC - Washington, DC

o TRADOC Research Analysis Center, Ft Leavenworth, KS

o United Kingdom Defense Research Agency

o US Air Force Space and Missile Center, Los Angeles, Calif.

o USN Strategic System Program Organization (SSPO) - Arlington, VA (Navy)

o Various FFRDCs and contracted study corporations

o Wales - Israel

Alternative BMD Architectures and Concepts

o TASC - Arlington, VA

o BDM - Arlington, VA

o Riverside Research Inc. - Arlington, VA

o Sparta Inc. - McLean, VA; Huntsville, AL; & Los Angeles, CA

Mission Analyses and Simulations

o Aries Analytics, SRS, TASC, Riverside Research Institute, Booz, Allen & Hamilton, Inc., DSA, ANSER, and General Research Corporation - Arlington, VA

o GAMA - Falls Church, VA

o NIPP - Fairfax, VA

o Rockwell International, TBE, ANSER - Colorado Springs, CO

o SAIC, SPARC - Omaha, NE

o SAIC, BDM, CEXEC, and Sparta - McLean, VA

o US Army Strategic Defense Command, Huntsville, AL

o US Air Force Space and Missile Center, Los Angeles, Calif.

E. (U) COMPARISON WITH FY 1994 DESCRIPTIVE SUMMARY:

1. TECHNICAL CHANGES: Reduced level of effort.

2. SCHEDULE CHANGES: Reflects reduced level of effort.

3. COST CHANGES: Reduced funding.

F. (U) PROGRAM DOCUMENTATION:

o Technical Reports As Completed

G. (U) RELATED ACTIVITIES:

o Theater Missile Defense PE No. 0603216C

o National Missile Defense PE No. 0603217C

o This project provides direction and focus for BMD technology development and acquisition efforts. There is no unnecessary duplication of effort within BMDO or the DoD.

H. (U) OTHER APPROPRIATION FUNDS: None

I. (U) INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE AGREEMENTS: These efforts are governed by MOAs with the UK MOD, the Israeli MOD, and MITI of Japan.

J. (U) MILESTONE SCHEDULE:

TMD Architectures

o CINC TMD workshop 1Q/FY94

o UK-US AI-based Demonstrator Experiment 2Q/FY94

o Israeli Studies and Analysis 1&3Q/FY94

o EUCOM, CENTCOM, and PACOM exercises 3&4Q/FY94

o Enhanced KBS prototype 1Q/FY95

o Decision Aids Field Demonstration 3Q/FY95

o AI-based threat discrimination demonstration FY95

o Interface Management Document (USA and USAF) 1&4Q/FY94

o TMD Functional Requirements Document 4Q/FY94

Alternative BMD Architectures and Concepts

o Technical reports and briefings as work on specific issues as completed

o Final Technical Report 4Q/FY94

Mission Analyses and Simulations

o Status Reports on Army and Air Force analysis. Quarterly

o Architecture Analysis Reports As Completed

o Final report on study and analysis work completed by contractor(s) in FY 1994 End of FY 94