Program Element: 0603217C Project Number: 3203
PE Title: Ballistic Missile Defense (U) Budget Activity: 03
Adv Technology Dev (U)
February 1994
A. (U) RESOURCES: ($ in Thousands)
Project Title: Intelligence Threat Development
FY1993 FY1994 FY1995 FY1996 FY1997 FY1998 FY1999 Total
Program Name: Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Program
0603217C RDT&E 13,987 8,050 8,050 8,050 8,050 8,050 8,050 Continuing
B. (U) BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF MISSION REQUIREMENT AND SYSTEM CAPABILITIES:
(U) The purpose of the BMD Intelligence Threat Development project is to provide an up-to-date
Intelligence Community-validated threat description against which system-specific threat-driven
specifications, lethality designs, and target objects are developed. The primary vehicle for providing
these threat descriptions is the System Threat Assessment Report (STAR), which is updated and validated
by the Intelligence Community annually under this project. The STAR provides a general assessment of
these capabilities-doctrine, equipment, and forces-that potential adversaries could use to defeat or
degrade the BMD system. In addition to the STAR, annexes, for each Major Defense Acquisition Program
(MDAP), are provided and validated by the intelligence community each year. The annexes contain somewhat
more information than the STAR and are system-specific to each MDAP. The Intelligence Threat Development
Program divides the threat into four major categories-Operational Threat Environment, Targets, and
System-Specific Threats, and Reactive Threats. The Operational Threat Environment category includes
assessments of the operational, physical and technological environment and projects the effects of those
developments and trends on mission capability out to the end-of-life cycle. The outputs often take the
form of assessed limits on deployment and employment tactics or strategies for the use of projected
threats in attack scenarios. The Targets category includes a projection of threat systems and the
countermeasures that enhance their performance. This includes force structure, performance
characteristics, limits on employment and control, and where available, sample signatures. The System
Specific Threat category includes reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition (RSTA); lethal and
non-lethal threats; and regional integrated SST assessments. Both targets and SST are described up to
four levels of detail. Level O is the highest level in terms of basic capabilities and country of
origin. Level 1 provides the form, fit and function characteristics necessary to support system tradeoff
studies. Level 2 is a very detailed design in which actual materials and structures are described for
use in lethality studies and detail element designs. Level 3 is flight target designs with manufacturing
blue prints for either signature or lethality testing. Additional analyses evaluate emission signatures,
reflection signatures and dynamics signatures (trajectories and microdynamics), and the system specific
vulnerabilities for strategic and theater elements of ballistic missile defense systems. The Reactive
Threats are divided into high-interest technologically feasible threats and theater missile defense
threats. These analyses will provide detailed data for developing both theater defense systems and other
ballistic missile defense systems.
(U) This project is assigned to the Budget Activity and Program Element codes as identified in this
descriptive summary in accordance with existing Department of Defense policy. Further justification of
the Budget Activity code assigned to each Program Element is contained within the Brief Description of
Element section of each Program Element Summary.
C. (U) PROGRAM ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND PLANS:
(U) FY 1993 Accomplishments:
o (3823k) Classified Program.
o (1100k) Upgrade the STAR to reflect the latest changes in the threat environment and any revised program plans.
o (105k) Generate Global Missile Defense STAR Annex.
o (105k) Generate National Missile Defense Star Annex.
o (105k) Generate Battle Management, Command, Control, and Communications STAR Annex.
o (50k) Generate Strategic and Theater Intelligence Production Requirements.
o (200k) Generate unclassified threat document on missile proliferation.
o (2100k) Began 13 Level 1 system descriptions.
o (500k) Provided PENAID Panel Quick Reaction Support.
o (450k) Provided PENAID Level 1 threat specifications.
o (900k) Generated three system specific threat specifications.
o (1500k) Began three Level 2 system threat descriptions.
o (1300k) Provided management planning and budget support (five-year plan, PMAs, etc.).
o (700k) Evaluated ROW low observable intelligence assessments.
o (150k) Generated Theater Ballistic Missile mobile ground operations specifications.
o (150k) Began TBM guidance upgrades.
o (150k) Began CBW agent threat specifications.
o (250k) Generated intelligence parameter database.
o (349k) Began intelligence assessments studies.
(U) FY 1994 Plans:
o (1550k) Deliver an upgraded Capstone STAR.
o (50k) Deliver an upgraded system specific UTTMD STAR Annex.
o (50k) Deliver an upgraded system specific PATRIOT TMD STAR Annex.
o (50k) Deliver an upgraded system specific Corps SAM TMD STAR Annex.
o (1580k) Upgrade material on the Operational Threat Environment.
o (50k) Deliver upgraded Intelligence Production Requirements.
o (300k) Begin developing three Level 1 system descriptions.
o (250k) Begin developing MRL threat specifications.
o (300k) Begin developing SRBM projection analysis.
o (175k) Begin developing aerodynamic missile projections analysis.
o (250k) Develop PENAID Level 1 threat specification.
o (1025k) Begin developing five Level 2 system descriptions.
o (125k) Begin two Level 2 system descriptions.
o (200k) Begin Level 2 SRBM static test instrumentation.
o (400k) Begin one Level 3 system threat description.
o (695k) Provide management and budget support (PMAs, five-year plan, etc.).
o (200k) Develop studies for quick reaction tasks.
o (400k) Support development of standard missile parameter database.
o (400k) Develop and document threat information to support generation of signature information for
SRBM targets.
(U) FY 1995 Plans:
o (1550k) Deliver an upgraded Capstone STAR.
o (100k) Deliver an upgraded system specific UTTMD STAR Annex.
o (100k) Deliver an upgraded system specific PATRIOT TMD STAR Annex.
o (100k) Deliver an upgraded system specific Corps SAM TMD STAR Annex.
o (1000k) Upgrade material on the Operational Threat Environment.
o (1600k) Carry out intelligence assessments to upgrade STAR.
o (2000k) Develop Level 1 and Level 2 descriptions for a very limited amount of the highest priority threats within funding to support system specific performance analysis and design to threat development.
o (1500k) Develop Level 3 test target descriptions.
o (100k) Deliver upgraded Intelligence Production Requirements.
(U) Program Plan to Completion: This is a continuing program.
D. (U) WORK PERFORMED BY:
o Alpha Tech, Dynetics, Inc., Nichols Research, Sparta, Inc., SRS Technologies,- Huntsville, AL
o Teledyne Brown - Huntsville, AL
o Boeing Aerospace Corporation - Seattle, WA
o Delta Research, Inc. - Huntsville, AL
o General Electric, Company - Philadelphia, PA
o Kaman Sciences - Colorado Springs, CO
o McDonnell-Douglas Space Systems Company - Huntington Beach, CA
o Science Applications International Corporation - Dayton, OH
o Textron - Boston, MA
o TRW - Redondo Beach, CA
o Air Force Foreign Aerospace Science and Technology Center - Dayton, OH
o Army Foreign Science and Technology Center - Charlottesville, VA
o Army Strategic Defense Command - Huntsville, AL
o Defense Intelligence Agency - Washington, DC
o Central Intelligence Agency - Langley, VA
o DIA Missile and Space Intelligence Center - Huntsville, AL
o Naval Maritime Intelligence Center - Suitland,MD
o Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory - Livermore, CA
o Los Alamos National Laboratory - Los Alamos, NM
E. (U) COMPARISON WITH FY 1994 DESCRIPTIVE SUMMARY:
1. TECHNICAL CHANGES:
2. SCHEDULE CHANGES:
3. COST CHANGES:
F. (U) PROGRAM DOCUMENTATION: (Publication dates under Milestones)
o Intelligence Threat Program Plan
o Capstone STAR
o UTTMD STAR Annex
o Patriot STAR Annex
o Corps SAM STAR Annex
o Unclassified Third World Missile Threat
o Level 1 Threat description compendiums and individual designs for very high, high, and medium likelihood threat forces in system analyses.
o Selected Level 2 Threat descriptions on individual designs for threat forces in detail element analyses.
G. (U) RELATED ACTIVITIES:
(U) The Threat Program involves organizations of the Army, Navy, Air Force, and the Office of the
Secretary of Defense (e.g., the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defense Intelligence Agency). Activities
are defined in Program Management agreements with the Services. Coordination is accomplished through
daily monitoring of activities and periodic meetings with representatives from the Services, Agencies,
and the Department of Defense to ensure that product quality is maintained, that schedules are being met,
and that there is no unnecessary duplication.
H. (U) OTHER APPROPRIATION FUNDS: None
I. (U) INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE AGREEMENTS: None
J. (U) MILESTONE SCHEDULE:
o Update UTTMDS STAR annex in DoD 5000.2 format 3Q/FY94
o Update Patriot STAR annex in DoD 5000.2 format 3Q/FY94
o Update Corps SAM STAR annex in DoD 5000.2 format 3Q/FY94
o Deliver updated and validated Capstone STAR 4Q/FY94
o Upgrade Capstone STAR and 3 Annexes 3Q/FY95
o Upgrade Capstone STAR and 3 Annexes 3Q/FY96
o Level 1, 2 and 3 Threat descriptions are delivered
as funding permits