| RDT&E BUDGET ITEM JUSTIFICATION SHEET (R-2 Exhibit) | DATE: March 1996 |
| APPROPRIATION/BUDGET ACTIVITY
|
R-1 ITEM NOMENCLATURE
|
| COST (In Millions) | FY1995 | FY1996 | FY1997 | FY1998 | FY1999 | FY2000 | FY2001 | Cost To Complete | Total Cost |
| Total Program Element (PE) Cost | 24.720 | 31.248 | 35.101 | 36.511 | 38.552 | 39.889 | 41.087 | Continuing | Continuing |
| P421Tech Studies, Support&Analysis | 24.720 | 31.248 | 35.101 | 36.511 | 38.552 | 39.889 | 41.087 | Continuing | Continuing |
A. Mission Description and Budget Item Justification
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF ELEMENT: This program element is classified in Budget Activity 6 because it is the primary source of funding for the office of the Secretary of Defense, Joint Staff, and Unified Commands for studies, analyses, management, and technical support efforts to improve and support policy development, decision-making, management and administration of DoD programs and activities. Specific projects address a variety of complex issues and dynamic problems facing the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology (USD(A&T)), Under Secretary of Defense for Policy (USD(P)), Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness (USD(P&R)), Assistant Secretary of Defense for Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (ASD(C3I)), Director for Program Analysis and Evaluation (DPA&E), the Joint Staff and Unified Command Commanders. Studies and analyses will examine the implications and consequences of current and alternative policies, plans, operations, strategies and budgets, and are essential for understanding and gaining insight into the complex multifaceted international, political, technological, economic, military, and acquisition environments in which defense decisions and opportunities take place. With the defense budget declining and our need to better understand and cope with the threats and uncertainties facing the Nation in the current economic environment and post-cold war era, the need for objective analyses and forward-looking planning for the immediate through the long-range becomes greater.
PROGRAM ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND PLANS :
General Support for USD(A&T):
FY 1995 Accomplishments:
Compared the B1B and B-52H heavy bombers by performance, cost, system characteristics, and planned upgrades
Performed end-to-end technical assessments of Joint Precision Strike weapons and sensors
Supported the President's Advisory Board on Arms Proliferation Policy
Analyzed and integrated Theater Missile Defense (TMD) future requirements across all Services and Joint Staff
Analyzed near term Global Broadcast System alternatives, and MILSATCOM/other space systems architectures
Continued Base Closure analyses on economic impact
Developed Metrics and Benchmarking tools to evaluate the impact of acquisition reform measures and streamlined acquisition practice
Performed independent analysis of public (DoD) vs. private competition to perform depot maintenance; specifically evaluated the B2 depot support plan
Researched the economic, industrial and operational aspects of several new and emerging technologies, with potential applications in both the military and private sectors -- high performance networks, advanced computing, microelectronics, silicon on insulator (SOI), advanced materials, satellite communications, space technologies, and others
Began development of an integrated DoD strategy to produce affordable weapons systems, focusing on business, design, and manufacturing issues that span all DoD functional areas and organizations
Began development of DoD Acquisition Deskbook, an electronic desk reference to support all Program Managers and others in the DoD acquisition community
Reviewed the DoD Biomedical Science & Technology Master Plan
FY 1996 Ongoing Initiatives:
Assessment of deep attack capabilities, both fielded and under development by all Services, from the CINC's perspective, to determine the appropriate combination and quantities of weapons for maximum effectiveness
Analysis of the application of statistical process control to Weapon System program management, with the goal of lowering contract costs, breaking the pattern of high cost estimates becoming self-fulfilling
Analyses of space systems architectures and integration
Improving and monitoring the DoD process for developing, maintaining, and using specifications and standards
Analyses in support of International Arms Control
Continued development of electronic deskbook reference for all DoD acquisition managers
Continued development of integrated strategy to produce affordable weapons systems applying new manufacturing and business process
Metrics and benchmarking for acquisition reform initiatives
FY 1997 Plans:
Anticipated spin-off research required after the cost and operational effectiveness assessments of deep attack weapons mix
Continued implementation, tracking, and metrics of acquisition reform initiatives-- specifications and standards reform, streamlining, workforce incentives and training
Analyses of Theater and National Missile Defense requirements
Evaluation of functional areas which may become candidates for privatization/contracted services
Whole-DoD Analysis of many critical and diverse issues -- Aircraft recapitalization alternatives, weapons systems operational and support (O&S) costs, program management risk and cost by applying statistical process control models, cruise missile defense systems, NATO and Former Soviet Union environmental issues, domestic dual use and international technologies, international arms cooperation
General Support for USD(P):
FY 1995 Accomplishments:
Analytical effort designed to engage staffs in understanding operational consequences of an adversary's use of NBC/M. Analysis became the dominant theme of Global 95.
Provided the analytical context to determine mission requirements that may be affected by NCB/M for NATO's Senior Defense Group on Proliferation.
Developed prototype analytical tool that was adopted for use in Nimble Dancer, and NCB/M complications became a major briefing item at 12 July CINC conference.
In order to search for negotiation strategies with application to the Biological Warfare Convention, eight country studies were developed that evaluate the political, economic and military factors supporting biological warfare potential.
Completed a study on the future relationship between the U.S. and Korea.
Completed an analysis of Japan's defense program and the issue that will define the U.S. - Japan defense relationship.
Provided a unique study on future courses of action in Cuba, using Russian analysts with first hand experience in Cuba.
Continued work on a major effort to understand the issues involved in expanding NATO through transitioning Partnership for Peace members to full NATO membership.
Started work on Information Warfare and the Revolution in Military Affairs.
Completed work on military revolutions during peacetime.
Started work on an effort to develop prototype models of future combat in order to better predict force requirements.
Accomplished an assessment of Central and East European defense industrial security measures in anticipation of negotiating security agreements.
Undertaking an assessment of options for managing future defense budget constraints.
Provided analytical and administrative support for the President's Advisory Board on Arms Proliferation Policy.
FY 1996 Ongoing Initiatives :
Continued research on the defense policy challenges facing the alliance in extending membership to East Central Europe countries
Continued analysis of the future potential threats and challenges posed by China and the outlook for Asian security
Continued analysis of the Military Technical Revolution and the future security environment
Conterproliferation issues: responses to threats in the Persian Gulf; the impact of NBC proliferation on alliance missions
Further analysis on peacekeeping/peace operations -- how to improve the interagency planning and management of complex contingency operations
Latin America: A post-Defense Ministerial Assessment
Analysis of the future direction of Russian and the implications for US security strategy
The future US-Japan security relationship
FY 1997 Plans:
Several regionally-focused studies on areas of critical concern to the U.S. and its allies:
China's growth as a regional military power
Instability on the Korean sub-continent
Iran and Iraq and their impact on stability in the Middle East
Russia and the former Soviet republics
Peacekeeping, peacemaking and a variety of humanitarian issues
NATO expansion
General Support for Director, (PA&E):
FY 1995 Accomplishments:
Continued development of a system to perform cost analyses of force structure and infrastructure systems.
Improved methodology to assess long-term recapitalization resources needs and equipment aging trends.
Indicate Theater Missile Defense (TMD) COEA independent review effort.
Examination of the sources of cost growth in the development and acquisition of weapons systems.
Establishment of cost analysis databases to support mobility and logistics.
Assessment and improvement of the Contractor Cost Data Reporting System.
Analysis of the costs of the military medical care system.
Independent analyses of the cost and operational effectiveness of planned weapons system.
RAND military retirement study: Development of innovative military retirement options with potential for substantial fiscal savings and greater effectiveness.
FY 1996 Ongoing Initiatives (PA&E cont.) :
Part I. Current Agenda Issues:
Readiness and Quality of Life Monitoring
Develop tools to relate resources to readiness, as well as analyses of the most cost-effective ways to meet our objectives for readiness and quality of life.
Improve the FYDP data system to better understand the relationships.
Infrastructure Downsizing
Develop tools/analytical frameworks addressing the need to downsize DoD's infrastructure
Analyses of the drivers of infrastructure costs.
Follow-up on The Commission on Roles and Missions (CORM) emphasis on this theme, especially privatization and outsourcing initiatives.
FYDP improvement project -- directly related to our ability to improve our analytical capabilities in the infrastructure area.
Analyses to extend our understanding of the economies of DoD's infrastructure.
Long-Term Recapitalization
Analytical efforts to gain a better understanding of long-term investment needs and equipment aging trends.
Develop metrics to assess our needs in this area, as well as studies of specific investment areas and systems.
Assess DoD's post-2000 resource needs to maintain the Bottom-Up Review force structure and modernize key investment areas.
PA&E and A&T have jointly sponsored the Defense Program Projection (DPP) project to address recapitalization issues.
Support to the Acquisition Process
Continuing analytical support for the defense acquisition process, including both the Defense Acquisition Board reviews and the MAISRC process, incorporating acquisition reform efforts.
Independent cost estimates prepared by the CAIG and the Cost and Operational Effectiveness Analyses overseen and reviewed by PA&E's program analysts. (Better cost and effectiveness tools, discussed below in Part II, also provide important support to the acquisition process.)
Development of improved methodologies to support our analysts.
Congressional Mandates --
A number of reports are mandated each year by the Congress, for which PA&E has responsibility for preparation, including the annual burden sharing report.
Part II. Development of Analytic Tools.
Provide critical research support for both DoD's Cost Analysis Improvement Group (CAIG) activities in support of the Defense Acquisition Board and other activities in support of the Secretary and the Deputy Secretary that require cost analyses, including the program review process and other special studies and reviews.
Through the CAIG, PA&E has a statutory responsibility to ensure that DoD develops realistic cost estimates of major weapon systems.
This legislation requires that the CAIG prepare independent cost estimates for these systems at prescribed milestones in the acquisition process.
Strengthening of DoD's independent cost estimating capability.
CAIG uses parametric and other cost estimating the likely development, production, and O&S costs of major weapons systems.
These models use methodologies that are highly dependent on sound historical data and statistical methods.
Includes a strong research effort in the cost analysis area, with particular emphasis on the following current issues:
diminished industrial base,
software intensive functionality,
low observable technology,
the rapidly changing microelectronics environment,
cost impacts of acquisition streamlining initiatives, and
operating and support cost estimating.
Develop better tools to perform a wide range of required analyses including:
Cost and Operational Effectiveness Analyses for Defense Acquisition Board reviews, program review issues, support to Joint Warfare Capabilities Analyses (JWCAs), and other special studies such as mobility program analyses.
Begin replacement of tools badly outmoded in the post-Cold War environment, such as the effort to improve joint theater models (JAMIP/JWARS)
Part III . General Support for PPBS Activities :
Alternative planning scenario analyses
Investigate follow-up of CORM recommendation for a Quadrennial Strategy Review.
FY 1997 Plans : Evaluate readiness, quality of life, recapitalization, and infrastructure issues, critical in a downsized military. Build/capitalize upon effectiveness tools such as theater models or other capability analyses to look at incremental costs, effectiveness, and relative contribution of planned acquisitions. Continue FYDP reform efforts. Provide tools essential for analyzing and providing support for the acquisition process in light of acquisition reform; continued cost analyses of the military medical delivery system; conduct independent cost and operational effectiveness of planned weapons systems; and improve techniques to better understand and project DoD infrastructure and requirements. Continue Congressionally mandated efforts. Continued development of cost research and analysis tools, with emphasis on issues of software intensive functionality, low observable technology, the rapidly changing microelectronics environment, cost impacts of acquisition streamlining initiatives, and operating and support cost estimating.
General Support for USD(P&R):
FY 1995 Accomplishments :
Developed and tested the Compensation, Accessions, and Personnel Management (CAPM) system, a model to simulate and evaluate the effects of personnel management policies on enlisted force inventories and structure.
Continued assessment and evaluation of training and training cost effectiveness.
Continued examination of the reduction-in-force programs and experiences of private sector firms in order to develop a DoD civilian downsizing plan.
Designed the survey instrument to examine the income, quality of life, health care and employment of military retirees.
Assessed the Military Equal Opportunity Assessment reports of the Services to identify trends in 10 affirmative action categories.
Assessed the impact of non-deployable military personnel on unit readiness. Congressionally mandated.
Continued assessment of the DoD officer career management system. Congressionally mandated.
Determine the impact both reduced propensity of the youth population to enlist and their changing aptitudes on military recruiting.
Continued assessment of the effects of changes in the compensation and retirement systems on force structure and performance.
Designed the survey instrument to collect data on reenlistment intentions of junior enlisted service members.
Evaluated the effectiveness of Reserve forces in operations other than war.
Assessed the relationship between indicators of military readiness and budgetary resources.
FY 1996 Ongoing Initiatives :
Complete assessment of the effects of changes in military compensation and retirement system on force structure and productivity and performance.
Field test a survey instrument to measure propensity of currently serving military members to reenlist.
Using survey data, determine retention behavior of pre-career and early-career enlisted service members and predict their propensity to both reenlist and to make a full career in the military.
Examine trends in military recruiting to include the effects of changes in demographic, economical, psychological, and budgetary factors as Services' recruiting goals rise in FY 96 and FY 97.
FY 93 Defense Authorization Act requirement. Complete assessment of alternative officer career management systems. Issues addressed include length of career, mandatory retirement, "up or out" policies, and military pay.
Determine the effectiveness and costs of alternative mixes of national and local advertising--television, radio, and print--on military recruiting and evaluate the message conveyed.
Examine the ways in which the military pay system and the non-pecuniary factors (quality of life, promotion policies, etc.) affect overall recruiting and retention (and individual performance) to determine the most cost-effective mix of compensation and personnel policies.
Assess future enlisted force requirements in terms of service, skill goals, and experience mix, and identify personnel management policies that will yield a cost-effective match between future enlisted career members and requirements.
Complete assessment of the extent to which required military and civilian manpower levels are maintained as the DoD drawdown concludes and budget levels are reduced.
Evaluate the JROTC Career Academy Program, which provides academic and vocational training, as well as a special military course of instruction, for "at-risk" high school students.
Collect data from military retirees to obtain information on income, quality of life, health care, and employment to determine whether military retirees are becoming better or worse off over time, as compared to their civilian peers.
Personnel and Family Support
Assess the impact of child care, MWR, and other quality of life program on military families, to include the programs' purpose and utilization. Determine the impact of housing privatization. Examine the effects of major QoL programs on retention satisfaction with military life, spouse employment, etc.
Civilian Personnel Policy
Devise a cost-effective DoD civilian manpower plan in the drawdown as budgets are constrained and military force levels decline. Issues addressed will include privatization, military-civilian substitution, and compensation.
FY 95 Defense Authorization Act requirement. Design a uniform health benefits program for DoD employees assigned to non-appropriated fund (NAF) components.
Reserve Force Utilization
Investigate the extent to which peacetime use of Reserves affects reserve manning and retention, as well as active/reserve missions and budgets.
Determine the cost-effectiveness of substituting Reserve for Active Duty NATO forces in Europe.
Equal Opportunity Policy
Analyze the career opportunities of minority and female officers, with particular emphasis on promotion rates and timing.
Provide expert research for the Defense Equal Opportunity Management Institute on equal opportunity and diversity issues by university faculty members.
FY 1997 Plans: Funding provides increased capability to DoD manpower in meeting force effectiveness, combat readiness, and sustainability goals. Specifically, funds will be used to: (1) explore new concepts in personnel and unit readiness for Active and Reserve Components; (2) support effective training; (3) develop methods to improve the determination of the total force requirements for manpower; (4) improve the technological capability of personnel systems to acquire, distribute, train, and utilize qualified personnel for Active and Reserve forces; (5) evaluate alternatives for managing total force manpower; (6) monitor quality of life, equal opportunity and diversity of the force.
General Support for ASD(C3I):
FY 1995 Accomplishments :
Technical analyses of NATO communications and message handling requirements and the implications for the US for US use in NATO.
Intelligence interoperability/dissemination studies for US/NATO coalition requirements
Independent analyses supporting the DoD Acquisition System Protection Program.
Analysis of how to transition a Special Access Program to a collateral program under the DoD Acquisition System Protection Program.
Political and military decisionmaking analysis on building stability, democracy and peace in Central and Eastern Europe.
Analysis of Cyberspace-based threats to military readiness, deployability, and sustainability in support of research into government stakeholder positions and task definition for non-defense integration and development of Information Assurance Strategies.
Highly successful Day After Game which focused on information warfare and the relationship between defense requirements and national policy.
FY 1996 Ongoing Initiatives :
Develop a streamlined management plan for the Global Command and Control System (GCCS) that meets congressional oversight requirements and DoD policies, while ensuring rapid, effective, and evolutionary fielding.
Provide systems engineering support to the US Mission to NATO on NATO and US information systems.
Update analysis of estimates of DoD security costs, to include costs associated with classification and declassification of classified material for submission to OMB
Analysis and assessment of the information exchange among political and military decisionmakers leading to agreements on NATO expansion and partnership for peace.
Analyze and evaluate IW impacts to transportation, communications, power and industrial architectures for the US national infrastructure
Develop a protective strategy for the US Government to employ in reducing the vulnerabilities to cyberspace attack of information systems including military and civilian physical and functional infrastructures..
Identify key technology trends and determine how well the INFOSEC community has gauged device, system, and network protection capabilities against US exploitation and corruption technology.
FY 1997 Plans: Continue to study streamlining the oversight process for GCCS and other evolutionary automated information systems acquisition programs. Continue technical support and analysis of the US roles in NATO C3 program in support of the US Mission to NATO. Continue to provide security cost analysis for Defense. Continue IW technical expansion investigation and develop formal process for evaluation of opportunities. Analyze civil agency information assurance strategies to support defense activities and enhance readiness. Complete Netwar niche competitor and defense strategy analysis;. Continue IW equities analysis to maximize technological reuse.
General Support for the Joint Staff:
FY95 Accomplishments : All resources from this Program Element were applied to a body of research, joint warfighting capabilites assessments (JWCA), in 9 major operational areas -- strike, air superiority, ground maneuvering, deterrence/counterproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction, overseas presence, strategic mobility, C4I/Information Warfare, joint readiness, intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissance -- and the integration of all the above capabilities.
FY 1996 Ongoing Initiatives :
Assessment of air operations over Bosnia since 1992, identifying lessons learned and implications for future military operations
JWCA analyses of sea-air-space superiority,
Analyses of several aspects of strategic mobility --emerging battlefields, intratheatre analysis capability, and prepositioning for operations other than war
FY97 Plans: The large body of JWC will yield new research questions to be pursued as follow-on studies: analyses of alternative actions/implementations of recommendations of earlier research, and more in-depth analyses of specific elements of an operational area; e.g., the several aspects of strategic mobility being studies concurrently in FY96 (see above).
| B. Program Change Summary | FY1995 | FY1996 | FY1997 | Total
Cost | |
| Previous President's Budget | 24.372 | 39.302 | 39.019 | Continuing | |
| Appropriated Value | 24.647 | 34.302 | |||
| Adjust to Appropriated Value/President's Budget | - .073 | - 3.054 | - 3.918 | ||
| Current Budget Submit/President's Budget | 24.720 | 31.248 | 35.101 | Continuing | |
| Change Summary Explanation: |
Funding: FY 1995 decrease for undistributed Congressional reductions. FY 1996 decrease for undistributed Congressional reductions and revised economic assumptions. FY 1997 decrease for revised economic assumptions.
Schedule: N/A
Technical: N/A
C. Other Program Funding Summary Cost N/ A
D. Schedule Profile