MSG FROM: NSREL --CPUA TO: NSWT --CPUA 01/24/87 18:46:02
To: NSGSG --CPUA Colin L. Powell NSWRP --CPUA Colin L. Powell
NOTE FROM: ROBERT E. LINHARD
-- SECRET --
SUBJECT: THOUGHTS ON HOW TO PROCEED ON SDI AND ARMS CONTROL ISSUES
GENERAL,
I PROMISED THAT I WOULD GET BACK TO YOU TODAY WITH A RECOMMENDATION ON HOW
BEST TO PROCEED ON BOTH THE SDI AND ARMS CONTROL ISSUES. I AM CONTINUING TO
REFINE THIS PLAN, BUT HERE IS HOW I WOULD LIKE TO PRESS FORWARD.
SDI:
23 JAN -- WE DID SUBMIT TODAY A PAPER WHICH LAYS OUT THE ISSUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SDI BRIEFING FOR THE PRESIDENT'S WEEKEND READING AS
PLANNED.
-- SHULTZ, NITZE, HOLMES ET AL WERE BRIEFED TODAY BY
ABRAHAMSON, AND PERLE AS PLANNED. WE GOT A DEBRIEF ON THE SESSION FROM OSD.
25 JAN -- ON MONDAY WE WILL HAVE THE REGULAR SDI MAFIA MEETING AT
2PM IN ROOM 208. I WILL TRY TO ENCOURAGE THE EXPERT LEVEL OF THE SYSTEM TO
KEEP THE ENSUING DISCUSSION "OBJECTIVE" IN ALL AGENCIES.
-- WE WILL ALSO REVIEW THE STATUS OF THE SDI ARMS CONTROL
IMPACT STATEMENT AND THE SDI REPORT TO CONGRESS.
26 JAN -- I WILL MEET WITH NUNN AND WARNER TO BRIEF THEM ON NUCLEAR
RISK REDUCTION, BUT TRY TO MAKE SOME IN ROADS ON SDI WITH NUNN.
-- I ALSO PLAN TO SIT DOWN WITH RICHARD PERLE ON THURSDAY
AND SEE IF WE AGREE ON THE STATE OF PLAY AND ON THE PROPER PRESENTATION OF THE
ISSUES.
27 JAN -- WILL TRY TO GET A MORE COMPLETE BRIEFING FROM ABRAHAMSON
ON THE SURVIVABILITY ISSUE.
-- WILL MEET WITH NITZE TO DISCUSS COST EFFECTIVE CRITERIA
AND SMOKE OUT HIS VIEWS ON THE LEGALLY CORRECT
INTERPRETATION ISSUE.
-- WE HAVE ASKED OSD TO ENSURE THAT GATES (CIA) AND ROWNEY
ARE BRIEFED BY COB WEDNESDAY.
28 JAN -- IF MAX RETURNS FROM GENEVA, I WILL TRY TO HAVE HIM COME
IN AND DISCUSS BOTH SDI AND ARMS CONTROL WITH ME ON THURSDAY. HE WILL BE (I
BELIEVE) THE KEY INFLUENCE ON SHULTZ ON THESE ISSUES (NOT NITZE)
-- NITZE AND PERLE WILL LEAVE TOWN FOR WERKUNDE IN MUNICH
AND BE OUT OF POCKET UNTIL TUESDAY 3 FEB.
29 JAN -- ASSUMING AN NSPG ON 3 FEB, WE WILL SUBMIT THE STANDARD
PRESIDENTIAL MEETING MEMO BY COB FRIDAY
-- HAVE ENCOURAGED OSD TO HAVE CAP MEET WITH MAX KAMPELMAN
ON FRIDAY IF POSSIBLE BOTH GET A DEBRIEF FROM MAX AND TO LOBBY MAX ON OSD'S
VIEWS OF THE SDI ISSUE.
30 JAN -- SHULTZ WILL MEET AGAIN WITH OSD STAFF TO RECEIVE THE
ANSWERS TO A SERIES OF QUESTIONS THAT HE ASKED THIS SATURDAY.
-- WE WILL SUBMIT THE SUGGESTED TALKERS FOR FCC AND THE
PRESIDENT'S USE AT THE 3 FEB NSPG.
FEB -- WOULD ENCOURAGE A PRIVATE BREAKFAST OR LUNCH WITH FCC,
CAP, SHULTZ AND PERHAPS CROWE ON MONDAY. PURPOSE WOULD BE TO HAVE ONE FINAL
DISCUSSION OF THE ISSUES ON THE 3 FEB NSPG AGENDA PRIOR TO TUESDAY.
-- WE WOULD SUBMIT A DECISION PACKAGE FOR FCC'S REVIEW AND
USE AFTER THE NSPG ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD INCLUDE:
1. A MEMO TO THE PRES
2. A DRAFT NSDD
3. A PLAN FOR THE SCHEDULE OF THE NEXT FEW WEEKS (LEADING
TO THE SUBMISSION OF THE REPORT TO CONGRESS ON 15 FEB)WHICH ADDRESSES ALLIED
CONSULTATION AND PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENTS.
FEB -- NSPG FRAMED TO ADDRESS THE SDI ISSUES -- BUT ALSO THE
RELATED ISSUE OF THE SOVIET (AND SHULTZ) PROPOSAL FOR ADDRESSING THE DEFENSE
AND SPACE ISSUE IN GENEVA.
-- AFTER THE NSPG, FCC SENDS THE DECISION PACKAGE TO THE
PRESIDENT.
FEB -- WE RECEIVE THE PRESIDENT'S DECISION AND EXECUTE THE PLAN
FOR IMPLEMENTATION.
ARMS CONTROL:
3 JAN -- CIA HAS NOW PROVIDED THE FINAL DRAFT OF THE "GRIP 01"
PAPER WHICH DESCRIBES THE INTEL COMMUNITIES VIEWS OF WHAT TO EXPECT IN
SUBSTANCE FROM THE SOVIETS FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.
5 JAN -- THE GRIP 01 PAPER WILL BE CIRCULATED THE THE ARMS CONTROL
SUPPORT GROUP (ACSG) FOR THEIR FINAL REVIEW.
-- STATE IS DRAFTING A 3-4 PAGE PRESENTATION OF THEIR
DEFENSE AND SPACE PROPOSAL, THE EVALUATION OF WHICH WILL BE ONE OF THE TWO
MAIN PURPOSES OF GRIP 02.
6 JAN -- ACSG WILL MEET TO BLESS GRIP 01 AND APPROVE IT FOR
SUBMISSION TO THE CABINET LEVEL FOR THEIR INFORMATIONAL READING. IT WILL ALSO
BEGIN DRAFTING OF GRIP 02. THIS PAPER WILL BE INTENDED TO EVALUATE HOW THE US
SHOULD REACT TO THE POSSIBILITIES LAID OUT IN GRIP 01. IN
REALITY, IT WILL FOCUS ON TWO MAIN ISSUES:
1. AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DEFENSE AND SPACE PROPOSAL STATE
SENT TO THE PRESIDENT THIS WEEK, AND
2. AN ASSESSMENT OF THE POTENTIAL PITFALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARMS CONTROL PATH WE ARE NOW ON (I.E., PAPERS BEING DRAFTED IN
GENEVA, LEADING TO A FOREIGN MINISTERS' MEETING AT WHICH THE ISSUES ARE
DISCUSSED, WITH AN EYE ON A SUMMIT AT WHICH AN AGREEMENT IN
PRINCIPLE COULD BE REACHED). ** THIS IS A CRITICALLY NEEDED AGREEMENT! **
7 JAN -- 1ST FULL DRAFT OF GRIP 02 CIRCULATED TO ACSG FOR CRITICAL
REVIEW.
-- WILL DISCUSS GRIP 02 PAPER WITH RICHARD PERLE AND PAUL
NITZE.
8 JAN -- ACSG TO DISCUSS GRIP 02 AND PREPARE FOR 2ND DRAFT.
-- WILL DISCUSS GRIP 02 PAPER WITH MAX.
-- 2ND DRAFT OF GRIP 02 PAPER DISTRIBUTED BY COB THURSDAY
9 JAN -- FINAL WORKING DRAFT OF GRIP 02 PAPER DEVELOPED AND
CIRCULATED.
?0 JAN -- FINAL DRAFT OF GRIP 02 PAPER DISTRIBUTED TO ACSG TO BE
PROVIDED TO CABINET PRINCIPALS FOR THERE WEEKEND READING(PRIOR TO THE NSPG ON
3 FEB).
? FEB -- DISCUSSION OF GRIP 02 WITHIN NSC WITH FCC PRIOR TO 3 FEB
NSPG. IF APPROPRIATE, WE CAN WEAVE THE EVALUATION OF THE STATE DEFENSE AND
SPACE PROPOSAL INTO THE FLOW OF THE 3 FEB NSPG DISCUSSION. IF NOT READY FOR
DISCUSSION BY THAT POINT, WE CAN REQUEST A SEPARATE MEETING ON THIS SUBJECT.
IN SHORT, I BELIEVE THAT WE FACE THREE MAJOR ISSUES OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS:
1. SDI -- AND ESPECIALLY THE DECISION TO RESTRUCTURE THE SDI
PROGRAM TO THE LEGALLY CORRECT INTERPRETATION OF THE ABM TREATY;
2. DEFENSE AND SPACE -- THE TIMELY EVALUATION BY ALL AGENCIES OF
THE NEW PROPOSAL IN THE DEFENSE AND SPACE AREA SUBMITTED BY SECSTATE TO THE
PRESIDENT THIS WEEK (AND AN IDEA THE SOVIETS WILL PUSH IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS
FROM THEIS DIRECTION); AND
3. PROCESS -- MAKING A CONSCIOUS DECISION WHETHER WE WANT TO
ALLOW THE ARMS CONTROL PROCESS THAT WE ARE NOW ON(I.E., PAPERS IN GENEVA TO
FOREIGN MINISTERS' MEETING IN MOSCOW TO SUMMIT IN DC) TO PROCEED ALONG THE
CURRENT PATH -- OR PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL GUIDELINES TO
MINIMIZE OUR RISKS ON THAT PATH.
WHILE INTERRELATED, WE WOULD USE OSD BRIEFINGS AND INFORMAL CONTACTS TO SET
THE STAGE FOR AN NSPG ON 3 FEB ON ISSUE 1, WHILE USING THE ARMS CONTROL
SUPPORT GROUP TO WORK 2 AND 3 SO THAT THEY TOO ARE READY ABOUT THE SAME TIME.
WE CAN THEN CHOOSE IF WE WANT TO TRY TO KILL AT LEAST ISSUES 1 AND 2 AT THE
SAME NSPG (THE ISSUES ARE DIRECTLY RELATED), OR USE THE 3 FEB NSPG TO WORK
ISSUE 1 DIRECTLY AND SET US UP FOR A SECOND NSPG SHORTLY THEREAFTER ON ISSUES
2 AND 3.
SORRY ABOUT THE LENGTH OF THIS. WOULD LIKE YOUR FEEDBACK. AS THEY SAY IN THE
NAVY UNODIR (UNLESS OTHERWISE DIRECTED) I WILL PROCEED ALONG THE PATH OUTLINED
ABOVE.
CC: NSSES --CPUA NSSFK --CPUA
NSDAM --CPUA NSLFB --CPUA
NSFWE --CPUA NSWAC --CPUA
NSWT --CPUA NSREL --CPUA
NSGSG --CPUA NSWRP --CPUA
bTHOUGHTS ON HOW TO PROCEED ON SDI AND ARMS CONTROL ISSUES