Predicting the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: The Intelligence Community's Record (U)

Douglas MacEachin served as CIA's Deputy Director for Intelligence from 1993 to 1995 during his thirty-two year career at CIA. Mr. MacEachin was an officer-in-residence at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, from 1995 to 1997, subsequently becoming a senior at the Kennedy School.

Introduction

On Christmas Eve 1979, US intelligence began receiving reports that a massive Soviet military airlift was under way in and around Afghanistan. Initially the bulk of the flights were detected coming from the western USSR to air bases in the regions bordering on Afghanistan, with a smaller proportion also going into the main cities in Afghanistan. By the next morning, however, the number of flights into Afghanistan had begun to surge, reaching some 250 to 300 within the next 72 hours. These flights deployed what was believed to be five or six Soviet airborne battalions.

By the morning of 28 December, these Soviet military forces, along with additional troops who had already been infiltrated into Afghanistan in the preceding weeks, had taken control of the capital city of Kabul and other major cities and transportation nodes. They eliminated the existing government, killed its leader and installed a proxy regime that Moscow then used as a cover for sending in "requested assistance" in the form of two ground force combat divisions with 25,000 troops. These troops were already entering Afghanistan when the "request" was made.

US policy officials, including President Jimmy Carter, almost unanimously expressed surprise over the Soviet move—especially its size and scope. Explicit finger pointing was kept to a relatively low profile, but many of them made it clear that they considered the surprise to have been a consequence of an intelligence warning failure. Some intelligence officials contested this, pointing out that the preparation of the Soviet forces employed in the invasion had been described by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in current intelligence publications in the preceding months, and that an interagency intelligence "Alert Memorandum" had been disseminated five days before the airlift began. These arguments carried little sway. Earlier intelligence reports on activities by the Soviet military units had not been accompanied by warnings that this activity might indicate Moscow's intent to launch a major military intervention. It was also evident that by the time the Alert Memorandum was issued on 19 December the military intervention had already begun.

One indication that this was seen as an intelligence failure was a National Security Council (NSC) request—issued a few months after the Soviet invasion—for a study of the implications of the Afghanistan experience; using that experience as an indication of the intelligence capability to warn of Soviet military actions elsewhere, including an attack on NATO. An even more explicit indication was the inclusion of Afghanistan in the cases listed in a study that the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) commissioned in 1983 "on the quality of intelligence judgments preceding significant historical failures over the last twenty years or so."1

This monograph seeks to examine in detail—in an unclassified form that can be used in diverse forums for study and assessment—what it was in the intelligence performance that led to the "failure." The project was undertaken as a contribution to continuing efforts to improve future performance by confronting the root causes of past problems. It re-constructs, to the extent possible from declassified documents, the intelligence chronology at the time—what information was obtained from all sources, when it was obtained, how it was interpreted, and how it was presented to US policy officials. The fundamental objective is to illuminate how the intelligence came to be interpreted and described in a way that made the invasion come as a surprise.

This reconstruction of the intelligence picture as it was drawn at the time is then compared to information now available from Soviet archives on the military preparations actually undertaken—such as what units were chosen for the operations and when they were told to begin their preparations. This segment of the study also compares the US Intelligence Community's interpretations of potential Soviet actions with at least the partial information now available on the deliberations and debates that took place in Moscow's decision-making process.

As background for all this, the monograph begins by briefly describing the evolution of the political-military landscape in which Afghanistan existed at the time of the communist takeover in Afghanistan in April 1978.

Shaping the Politico-Military Topography ²

In July 1973, Afghanistan's former Prime Minister, Sadar Mohammed Daoud, seized control of the government with the backing of Soviet-trained Afghan military officers and a Moscow-nurtured Afghan Communist political faction. This proved to be a pivotal juncture in Afghanistan's development as a Cold War battlefield. US officials viewed the central role played by the pro-Moscow military and political factions as ominous for the future.3

Daoud himself was believed to be a nationalist, but during his earlier tenure as Prime Minister from September 1953 to March 1963 he had established close ties to Moscow by entering into a panoply of agreements for economic and military aid. His turn toward the Soviet Union in his earlier tenure had been motivated not by ideology but realpolitik, i n the face of regional alignments at the time—notably US cooperation with Pakistan and Iran, his main regional contestants. Nonetheless, his policies resulted in significant dependence on the USSR, and opened a number of avenues for Moscow to influence Afghan military officers and segments of the Afghan educated class.

The military faction that supported Daoud's seizure of power had been fostered by a mid-1955 agreement with Moscow providing long-term, low-interest credit for Afghanistan to purchase Soviet weapons and equipment. The agreement also involved deploying large contingents of Soviet military advisors to Afghanistan and training Afghan military officers in the Soviet Union. Escalating tensions with Pakistan, at least partly Daoud's doing, forced his ouster as Prime Minister in 1963. By 1973, a quarter to a third of the officers on active duty in the Afghan Army had been trained in the USSR.4

The other group that backed Daoud's takeover was one of two Afghan communist political factions supported by Moscow. Each operated under the title People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA). Each espoused orthodox Marxist ideology, an allegiance to Moscow, and a vague vision of a "social democratic" Afghanistan. Their differences were mainly a matter of personalities, personal alliances, the rival power aspirations of their leaders, and their strategies and tactics in seeking political power.

The faction that supported Daoud's coup was led by Babrak Karmal, whose approach was to appear to cooperate with whatever contingent held national power, in hopes of eventually appropriating power for himself. Noor Mohammed Taraki, a journalist, and his strong second in command, Hafizullah Amin, headed the other faction. Their approach tended more toward open opposition to the ruling establishment. The Soviets saw Karmal's faction as adhering closer to their line and considered the Taraki-Amin group radical to the point of being counterproductive. The division between the two factions would play a major role in Soviet policies toward Afghanistan and ultimately in Moscow's military intervention in December 1979.5

Each of these factions had evolved separately as underground dissident cells during Daoud's previous tenure as Prime Minister. They came together to form what would turn out to be a relatively short-lived, unified Communist party in January 1965, after the reigning Afghan monarch, Zahir Shah, had removed Daoud as Prime Minister and issued a new constitution. This draft constitution established a parliamentary system of government (albeit with some ambiguities in the allocation of authority between the monarch and the parliament) and permitted the formation of political parties. Elections for the newly created parliament were scheduled for September 1965.

Moscow had long been urging its two client factions to put aside their differences and form a unified party. The advantages for competing in the parliamentary elections provided added incentive and, in January 1965, they joined to establish the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA). As soon as the parliamentary elections were over, however, the fissures quickly reopened. Largely because of demographics, the only PDPA members to capture seats (four) in the new parliament were of Karmal's faction. These results reinforced each faction's commitment to take a separate path to political power. From inside the establishment, Karmal began attacking "leftist adventurism," clearly aimed at the opposition stance of Taraki. From outside, Taraki's supporters began referring to Karmal's group within the government as "royal Communists."6

By spring 1967, the two factions had split into what were, in effect, two parties. Each continued to identify itself as the PDPA, and to operate under the same manifesto and constitution. But each had its own Central Committee, and Karmal's "party" operated as part of the government while Taraki's posed as the opposition. Each faction became known under the name of its separate newspaper—Karmal's as "Parcham" (Red Banner) and Taraki's as "Khalq" (Masses).7

Largely because of incompetence and hubris, Karmal's strategy of appropriating power by conniving from inside the constitutional monarchy did not produce the results he sought. By the early 1970s, he was looking for another horse to ride to power. He was not, however, ready to return to an alliance with the Khalq. Instead, his Parcham faction began holding secret meetings with members of a growing cadre of Soviet-trained military officers. Some of these military officers had also begun to congregate around Daoud because they saw him as a strong nationalist leader. It was this collaboration that boosted Daoud into power in July 1973.

After Daoud's coup, the Parcham faction formed what amounted to a coalition government with him. Karmal and a few of his closest allies were brought into Daoud's inner circle, in what a former member of his government described as "an accommodation for the time being." A large number of ministerial positions—notably in the Ministries of the Interior, Education, and Information and Culture—were given to members of the Parcham faction. Meanwhile, the Khalq faction refused to back Daoud, treating his takeover as a palace coup within a regime to which Khalq was already in opposition, and regarding Parcham participation in the Daoud government as a sellout.8

Parcham leaders later would claim they had persuaded Daoud to take over the government, but it was clear he was seeking to exploit them as much as they were using him. For Daoud, the Communists and Soviet-trained military officers offered immediate and expedient forces for taking power. Karmal saw his support for Daoud's takeover as a way to reinsert himself into the political power chain, hoping eventually to be the successor. A knowledgeable observer said Karmal sought to make Daoud "the shoulder he could use to fire the gun which would inaugurate the [next phase] of the revolution."9

International Reactions

Moscow, not surprisingly, hailed Daoud's takeover. His record in facilitating extensive Soviet influence, and the fact that Soviet-supported political and military factions had backed his move, were viewed in Moscow as promising signs for the future. A message from the Soviet leadership a week after the takeover expressed confidence that the "friendship and ... cooperation" between their governments would "further successfully develop."10 Offers of increased assistance followed, and during a visit to Moscow in June 1974, Daoud concluded an agreement for an additional $600 million in economic assistance.The Soviets were investing in the expected future accession to power of Karmal and his Parcham faction, which they considered more pliable than the headstrong, confrontational Khalq.11

The implications of Daoud's coup for expanding Soviet power in the region generated shared concerns in Washington, Tehran and Islamabad. The leaders in Iran and Pakistan made this clear to US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger when he visited their capitals in November 1973. Their worst nightmare was of Soviet power creeping closer to the Indian Ocean. Iran took the lead in a joint effort to use generous economic and technical assistance to wean Daoud away from dependence on Moscow and to persuade him to shed the Soviet-backed factions in his government. In 1974, Iran gave $40 million in easy credit to the Daoud regime as an initial step in what subsequently would develop into an economic aid package larger than those offered by any other group including Moscow. Secretary Kissinger visited Kabul in November 1974, and shortly thereafter dispatched a delegation from the US Agency for International Development to Afghanistan with an offer of economic and technical assistance.12

A significant impediment to US political and economic initiatives, however, was the continuing conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan over the status of the ethnic Pashtuns

in Pakistan's border regions.13 This ongoing antagonism in the face of the US-Pakistan anticommunist alliance had impeded US aid to Afghanistan during Daoud's earlier tenure as head of the government and contributed to his turn to Moscow.14 Iran, in the wake of a booming oil market, offered a potential new source of assistance. But once again, Afghan antagonism toward Pakistan impeded an offer of aid. Because of Tehran's status in US regional security arrangements, the Shah found himself with little room for maneuver. He also had his own problems with ethnic minority spillovers in Iran.

These issues were escalating at the time of Daoud's coup. By early 1974, an armed revolt was underway in Baluchistan, the southwestern region of Pakistan bordering on Afghanistan and Iran. In northwest Pakistan, populated mainly by ethnic Afghan-Pashtuns, insurrectionist sabotage was a common occurrence. The extent of the Daoud regime's involvement in these insurrections has been a matter of some debate, but he clearly was allowing Baluch resistance fighters to set up bases in Afghanistan, and was providing sanctuary to Pashtun dissidents who were under warrant of arrest in Pakistan.15

To retaliate against Afghanistan's actions, Pakistan provided funds, material and weapons to Islamic fundamentalist organizations and other anti-Daoud Afghan extremists conducting raids and sabotage inside Afghanistan. A former member of Pakistan's government at the time has insisted that these operations were not intended to overthrow Daoud but to force him to negotiate.16 This could explain why Iran, at the same time it was offering economic aid to Daoud and pressing him to resolve the conflict with Pakistan, was also supplying US weapons and equipment to the insurgent groups in Afghanistan. Some of this material went through Pakistani channels and some passed directly to groups operating in western Afghanistan. Iran, because of its own sizable Baluch community, had its own motives for seeing the armed revolt in Baluchistan quelled, and provided Pakistan with US helicopters for use in this effort. According to at least one source, these actions by Iran were carried out in "loose collaboration" with the US. Egypt and Saudi Arabia also were providing support to Afghan Islamic fundamentalist groups,17 some of which would have a lasting presence on the Afghan battleground.

A former deputy foreign minister of Afghanistan has said that a message came through clearly in diplomatic channels: demonstrable efforts to resolve the conflict with Pakistan were necessary if Daoud hoped to sustain significant economic aid from the US and its allies. Iran's Prime Minister, visiting Kabul in August 1974, proposed the opening of a dialogue between Afghan and Pakistani representatives, as did Turkish officials. Kissinger pressed the issue in his visit in November.18

Daoud had his own reasons for widening his international sources of support and suppressing the power of Soviet-backed elements inside Afghanistan. One observer on the scene has said that Daoud probably understood the motives and objectives of the Parcham faction better than it understood his.19 So it is hard to assess how much the external pressures and enticements accounted for his turning away from Moscow and the Soviet-backed factions inside Afghanistan, but turn he did.

Daoud Moves Away From Moscow

As early as mid-1974, when Daoud made his first official visit to Moscow after his coup, he had already removed two communists from his cabinet and had begun to purge his interior ministry, which controlled internal security forces. By the beginning of 1975, he had reached agreement with Pakistani leader Zulfiqar Ali-Bhutto to begin talks on resolving their conflicts.20 The opening of these talks was derailed for more than a year, however, by the killing of a Bhutto friend and colleague by a terrorist bomb in Pakistan's Pashtun tribal agency, which led Bhutto to retaliate against indigenous Pashtun political officials. Nonetheless, Daoud's demonstrated willingness to work on the problem appears to have registered. In April 1975, he visited Iran and came away with a credit extension of $2 billion, of which $1.7 billion was to be devoted to a rail system linking the Afghan cities of Herat, Kandahar, and Kabul to Iranian lines extending to the Persian Gulf. (The subsequent collapse of the oil market and the fall of the Shah would prevent much of this from being realized.)21

Shortly after his return from Iran, Daoud announced that Afghanistan would not tolerate "imported ideology," clearly a swipe at the Moscow-backed communist factions in his own government. A few months later, he removed three more communists from ministerial positions, including the Minister of the Interior. By the end of December 1975, there were no remaining Parcham communists in Daoud's cabinet and he had drastically reduced the numbers in other government positions. He then announced that he was putting forward a new constitution that would establish a one-party state. He called for the dissolution of Parcham and Khalq and said the communists should join his new party of National Revolution.22

Daoud proceeded more cautiously in reducing the communist factions in the army. According to one of his supporters, he was concerned over the potential implications of a military backlash. Nonetheless, in October 1975, he dismissed 40 Soviet-trained military officers and sent others to remote garrisons. He also began arranging training for Afghan military officers in India and Egypt (whose armed forces were also equipped with Soviet weapons), thereby enabling him to reduce the number of officers subject to the political influence of training in the USSR. Some military officers were sent to the US for schooling. Daoud also tried to reduce the number of Soviet military advisors in Afghanistan.23

The following year brought a budding rapprochement with Pakistan and a further expansion of relations with Iran. After several months of rhetoric, Daoud and Bhutto held face-to-face talks in Kabul from 7-10 June 1976 on resolving the Pashtun dispute. They met again six weeks later in Pakistan. No final agreement was reached, but the two sides agreed to keep negotiating. Raids by fundamentalist groups ceased, goods moved relatively smoothly between the countries and, in March 1977, air service between the two—suspended since early 1974—was restored. A long-disputed treaty with Iran for construction of a mutually beneficial dam on the river bordering the two countries was formally ratified by both states and entered into force. 24 And Daoud's new, one-party constitution was enacted, outlawing the PDPA—and this applied to both of its factions.25

The Soviets decided it was time to invite Daoud to Moscow for discussions, and a visit was set for 12-15 April 1977. On the second day of the meetings, Soviet party leader Leonid Brezhnev launched into a tirade about the large number of "experts" from "NATO countries" involved in various projects in Afghanistan. He asserted that they were "spies" and demanded they be sent out of the country. Daoud stiffly retorted that Brezhnev's remarks were "unacceptable ...interference" in Afghanistan's internal affairs. The two reportedly patched things up superficially on the spot, but Daoud canceled the remaining private discussions he was scheduled to have with the Soviet leader and returned to Kabul a day later. From the perspective of both Moscow and Kabul, this was a demonstrable end of the affair.26

After the Moscow face-off, Daoud stepped up his "outreach" program. He increased the proportion of military officers sent for training in Egypt and India, and began sending air force officers to train in Turkey. He also aggressively associated himself with "moderate" non-aligned states such as Yugoslavia. By early 1978, he had concluded economic aid agreements generating about $500 million each from Saudi Arabia and the United States. A visit to Kabul by the Shah of Iran was set for June, and Daoud was scheduled to meet with President Jimmy Carter in Washington in September.

Meanwhile, despite Bhutto's overthrow in Pakistan by a military regime in 1977, talks between Kabul and Islamabad were continuing, and there appeared to be a strong possibility of settling their longstanding dispute. Although Moscow might plausibly have encouraged such talks with the leftist Bhutto government as a wedge against the US, a settlement with a rightist regime in Pakistan, one strongly supported by Washington, held the prospect of a significant shift in regional alignments. For Soviet leaders, enough clearly was enough.27

The Communist Coup

By the time of the Daoud-Brezhnev face-off, the Soviets already had begun aggressively pressing the Parcham and Khalq factions to reunite into a single Communist party. Moscow had enlisted the help of intermediaries from other Communist parties in the region—the Iraqi and Indian parties, for example—as well as a leader of the ethnic dissident group in Pakistan who was living in exile in Afghanistan. These efforts were stymied for more than a year as each of the Afghan communist factions maneuvered for dominance. But the combination of Daoud's moves and Soviet pressure finally convinced the two factions to agree—at the beginning of July 1977—to form a unified PDPA.

The fundamental split between the factions did not end, however; it was merely papered over for the time being. As in their earlier unified party, Taraki was given the top position of party General Secretary, with Karmal in second place under the title of First Secretary. Positions on the new party Central Committee were divided equally between Parcham and Khalq.

The equal division of positions did not extend to the military, where Khalq had established widespread influence. The disaffection of military officers who had survived Daoud's purging, and their perception that Parcham was linked to him, drew them to the Khalq faction, which had launched a significant covert recruitment effort in the military after Daoud had banned open recruiting. Leading this recruiting was Amin, who now held—over virulent Parcham objection—the party position in charge of the military. This made him the point man for planning the overthrow of Daoud.28

Nine months after patching together their reunified party, the communists seized control of the government. The precipitating event was the assassination on 17 April 1978 of a top Parcham official, Mir Akbar Khyber. The PDPA accused the Daoud regime of being behind it, and organized large-scale demonstrations in protest. In response, police arrested Taraki, Karmal and five other top PDPA officials in the night and early morning hours of 25-26 April, but they did not initially arrest Amin. The police reportedly searched his residence and put him under surveillance in a form of house arrest, but did not actually take him into custody until sometime later on 26 April. In the meantime, he reportedly was able to pass the coup plans and implementing orders to key party supporters in the military.

By noon the next day, 27 April, Afghan Army units had surrounded the presidential palace, the ministry of defense and other key government buildings. Late in the afternoon, helicopter gunships and jet fighters attacked government sites, pounding the palace where Daoud had withdrawn. Imprisoned PDPA leaders were found and freed. At 7 p.m., the two military officers leading the attacks announced on Radio Afghanistan that the Daoud regime had been ousted and power taken by a "Revolutionary Council of the Armed Forces," subsequently called the Revolutionary Military Council. Sometime that night, Daoud was killed by troops assaulting the presidential palace.29

A few days later, decrees announced that the Revolutionary Military Council had been replaced by a "Revolutionary Council" of a newly titled "Democratic Republic of Afghanistan." Taraki was named Chairman of the Council (de facto President of Afghanistan) and Prime Minister. Karmal was made Deputy Chairman and Deputy Prime Minister, with Amin ranking third as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs. The military officer who led the army troops in the coup, Aslam Watanjar, nominally a Khalq sympathizer, was also given the rank of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Communications. The Ministry of Defense went to the officer who commanded the air force operations, Abdul Qadir, an open Parcham supporter.30

From Washington's perspective, the Soviets' obvious motivation to reverse the direction in which Daoud had been taking Afghanistan, and to re-establish a more compliant client regime led naturally to suspicions that Moscow had engineered the government takeover. The fact that the USSR was the first state to formally recognize the new government reinforced this view. US embassy officers also had reported seeing Soviet advisors mingling with some of the Afghan military units carrying out the operations.

US intelligence assessments, however, said there was no evidence the Soviets had been involved in launching the coup, although Moscow had moved quickly to exploit the situation once it began. The assessments said that the more fervent Soviet ideologues and military officials probably saw the developments as offering an opportunity to create another allied Communist regime on the borders of the USSR.31

Evidence now available from numerous and diverse sources indicates the Soviets had indeed been advised of PDPA coup planning. The coup that took place, however, was not the one they were expecting. Former PDPA and Soviet officials have all said that the plans being coordinated with Moscow envisaged the coup taking place later, around August. Often-contradictory accounts of the events that produced the move in April—beginning with the assassination of Khyber—have attributed them to diverse conspiracies and subplots. Some observers have described the move as resulting from an ill-advised provocation by Daoud, who had been informed of plotting among PDPA factions and sought to justify a preemptive strike. This scenario has Amin simply exploiting an opportunity. Many other sources have described the move as a scheme by Amin to eliminate his rivals—especially those with influence in the military—and set the stage for taking power for himself when the coup ultimately was launched. Some claim Amin planned it—with the help of clandestine supporters in the intelligence service and army—to preempt the plan being coordinated with Parcham and to position himself to dictate the resulting power hierarchy. And at least one knowledgeable scholar has argued that Amin was simply the beneficiary of actions taken by the military, on its own initiative, in response to the sweeping arrests Daoud ordered. 32

Whatever the case, the Soviets clearly sought to make the best of the hand that had been dealt them. Moscow quickly dispatched political advisors from the CPSU International Department (the organization for coordinating relations with foreign Communist parties) to mediate the struggle for power between the two PDPA factions and coerce them into forming a viable regime. According to US intelligence reports, the number of Soviet military advisors in Afghanistan was increased from 350 at the time of the coup to 500 by the end of May, many of them in the Ministry of Defense in Kabul. US intelligence sources also disclosed that a delegation from the Soviet General Staff Operations Directorate signed a new military assistance protocol with the Taraki regime on 31 May.33

Soon the split between the PDPA factions erupted again. In a power play reportedly assisted by the defection of at least one or two Parchamites, Amin engineered a party vote giving his Khalq faction the decisive role in setting state policy. By mid-July, Karmal and six of the other top Parcham leaders had been "exiled" to ambassadorial posts. Amin formally took over Karmal's position as the Deputy Chairman of the ruling Revolutionary Council. Parcham supporter Abdul Qadir remained as Defense Minister for the time being, but Amin saw to it that he was isolated and under close watch. The fact that the Parcham leaders were exiled rather than imprisoned—or worse—and that Qadir and other, lower level Parcham members were allowed to retain their positions reportedly was the result of Soviet intervention. 34 Amin would live to regret this benevolence.

Washington Perspectives

US intelligence analysts interpreted the purge as having had Moscow's acquiescence. They pointed out that shortly after Karmal's departure to ambassadorial exile in Prague in July, the Soviets had signed another major agreement providing the Taraki regime with $250 million of additional military assistance. The number of Soviet military advisors was estimated to have increased to 700, double the total prior to the coup. Many additional civilian advisors were also dispatched to Kabul to help the regime consolidate its hold on power. Intelligence assessments also concluded, however, that while the increased presence of the Soviets had enhanced their ability to intervene militarily if it became necessary to prop up their client regime, they would seek to avoid a situation requiring them to send combat units to Afghanistan.35

Views among US policy officials were divided. Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, citing the absence of information indicating Soviet complicity in the communist coup, held out hope that even though the Afghan Government had now been seized by what he described as "radical leftists in the army," Soviet influence could be contained. He believed the best way to "maintain a measure of influence" was to sustain the limited US economic assistance that had been underway before the coup. He also reportedly supported arguments by the State Department's Bureau of Middle East and South Asian Affairs that the US should avoid actions that could push the new Afghan regime even closer to the USSR. President Carter's National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, saw the coup as part of a Soviet plan to acquire hegemony in the region. He is said to have favored cutting off US relations with Afghanistan and mounting covert operations to counter Soviet aspirations in the region. One former US Government official has said that Brzezinski was not concerned that such a policy course might provoke the Soviets because he believed they already were intent on taking control of Afghanistan.36

The State Department's approach for the most part prevailed. Washington officially recognized the new Afghan Government, maintained normal diplomatic relations, and continued modest economic aid at the pre-coup level. In July—about the same time the Parcham leaders were departing for their exile posts and Moscow was bolstering its advisory contingents—the United States named a new ambassador to Afghanistan, Adolph Dubs. Dubs vigorously supported a "holding action," which was designed to avoid driving the Afghan regime closer to Moscow and, hopefully, to encourage the regime eventually to lean in the opposite direction. Also in July, Undersecretary of State David Newsom made an official visit to Kabul to review the US economic aid program. He returned pessimistic about the situation there, but nonetheless met with the Shah of Iran on the same trip to reinforce US requests that Iran also try to work with the new Afghan regime.37

Party Purge—Stage Two

A month after Newsom returned from Kabul, Afghan Defense Minister Qadir and two other senior military officers associated with the Parcham faction were arrested on charges of plotting to overthrow the new government. Their confessions were publicized a month later. As is the case with most other events in Afghanistan during this time, there are diverse accounts of what actually transpired, including the means by which the confessions were obtained. The most commonly accepted version is that Karmal, shortly before he left for Prague in July, conspired to have Qadir and a group of Parcham supporters in the army seize control of the government. The move was to be carried out on the Muslim holiday Eid, at the end of Ramadan, which that year would have been 4 September. (This timing has led some scholars to suggest that what Karmal and Qadir intended was to carry out the original plan the PDPA had been coordinating with Moscow prior to Amin's April preemption.) Qadir's plan was leaked to Amin—according to most accounts, by the Afghan ambassador to India, who was secretly an Amin supporter. Amin then ordered the arrests of the three senior Parcham military supporters.38

Amin used the plot as grounds for purging the remaining Parcham members from the government, imprisoning many and executing some. He also summoned the seven exiled Parcham ambassadors back to Kabul, but they all—understandably—went into hiding, taking with them substantial funds from their various embassies. US intelligence reported that safe havens for the Parcham exiles had been arranged by Moscow. Intelligence analysts also concluded that the purges had substantially narrowed the regime's political base and diminished the reliability of the army.39

With the elimination of Qadir as Defense Minister, Amin sought to take the post himself, in effect to take overt, official control over what already was his principal—albeit eroding—power base. He was opposed by Watanjar, who believed that—as an army officer and the primary field commander of the coup that brought the PDPA to power—he was entitled to head the military. While nominally a Khalq supporter, Watanjar's strongest loyalties were to himself and to the military cells formed under the tutelage of Soviet military intelligence. In a superficial compromise, Taraki took the Defense Minister title for himself, but Amin, as the principal Deputy Prime Minister—with widespread, as well as some covert support elements in the military—exercised primary control. Watanjar was demoted from his Deputy Prime Minister status, and became one of those whose enmity to Amin would play a key role in future events.40

The Tribes Revolt

By this time, PDPA efforts to impose a socialist revolution throughout the countryside were meeting a violent backlash. Some scholars have pointed out that the regime's declared objectives of reducing the inequities and repressive measures of Afghanistan's tribal feudalism were justified. The regime's program of revolution called for redistributing monopolized land holdings, relieving peasant indenture status, reforming women's marriage rights, and outlawing old customs that propped up the tribal leaders and Mullahs. But the measures were imposed dictatorially, and the inevitable resistance of feudal landholders and tribal chiefs, moneylenders, and mullahs was met with a repressive pattern of arrests and summary trials. Many mullahs were among those arrested and many others were ejected from their positions. Provincial administration in much of the countryside was placed under the central control of the Communist Party.41

Armed opposition erupted. In November 1978, US intelligence reported that fighting in the provinces was escalating, and that insurgents appeared to have taken control of large areas of north and east Afghanistan. The insurgents reportedly were receiving arms and assistance from ethnic Pashtun guerrilla organizations operating from Pakistan. Intelligence reports that the loyalty of the army was eroding were borne out when the commander of the Afghan Army corps in Qandahar, in southeast Afghanistan, was arrested for supporting the insurgents. Soviet military advisors reportedly had been assigned to Afghan units directly engaged in combating the insurgents. US intelligence analysts learned that one Soviet military advisor concluded that a large Soviet military advisory presence would be needed for several years.42

Early in December, Taraki and Amin flew to Moscow on what US analysts interpreted as a mission to gain increased assistance for combating the insurrection. On 5 December, the two governments signed a 20-year treaty on "cooperation and friendship." US intelligence assessments pointed out that it included no explicit mutual defense commitment and contained a clause referring to Afghanistan's non-alignment. But the treaty also included an article under which the two governments would continue military cooperation and "consult with each other and take appropriate measures to ensure the security, independence, and territorial integrity" of the two states. As intelligence reporting pointed out, the Afghan government could invoke this provision to request military assistance from the USSR.43

The 5 December treaty marked the beginning of a turn in US policy. Former Secretary of State Vance has since said that Washington saw the treaty "as a Soviet reaction to the fact that Kabul's authority outside major cities had collapsed." Former National Security Advisor Brzezinski is reported to have said in an interview after leaving office that while the United States continued strict adherence to President Carter's injunction against direct US assistance and the use of US weapons to support the Afghan insurgency, the CIA did consult with the Pakistan Government on its support to the opposition forces. At the same time, however, apparently reflecting both US hopes of offering Amin alternatives and Amin's efforts to assuage US concerns, Washington agreed to resume a small program for training Afghan military officers in the US that had been cut off after the April coup.44

In mid-January 1979, a guerrilla force composed of Afghan refugees from Pakistan carried out a raid on a provincial capital—Asadabad—near the northeastern border of Afghanistan, and seized an army garrison there. The guerrillas were eventually driven out, but were able to hold the garrison briefly because the Afghan commander had already secretly defected to the insurrection. That same month, US intelligence reported that a high-level Soviet military delegation had arrived in Kabul to discuss further Soviet military aid. By this time, according to US intelligence information, the number of military advisors had been raised to as many as 1,000, with another 2,000 Soviet political and economic advisors also in the country.45

On 14 February, US Ambassador Dubs was abducted off the streets of Kabul by an extremist Afghan anti-government cell. The kidnapers offered to swap him for the release of a group of their leaders imprisoned by the Afghan regime. The regime refused to deal with the abductors, despite demands from the US Embassy. Dubs was killed a few hours later when Afghan police stormed the hotel room where the terrorists were holding him. According to intelligence reports, Soviet advisors were seen accompanying the Afghan forces that carried out the raid. To some senior Washington officials, the Afghan leaders' refusal to accept responsibility or apologize for the action reflected their anti-US, pro-Soviet bent. A week later, the Carter Administration cut its already modest economic assistance and canceled its plan to train a small number of Afghan military officers.46 The fact that the killing of the ambassador occurred one month after the Shah of Iran was ousted in a seizure of power by an Islamic fundamentalist regime may have influenced the US reaction.

The Conflict Escalates

In mid-March, an uprising in Herat—the main city in northwest Afghanistan—clearly indicated the rebellion had reached a new level. The fighting in Herat lasted well over a week, during much of the time cutting the city's links with the rest of the country. Parts of the Afghan Army forces garrisoned in Herat defected to the insurgency, and a significant portion of the other troops refused to engage in the fighting. The uprising was finally suppressed after other Afghan forces were brought in from Kabul. Intelligence reports suggested that Soviet advisors had been singled out for attacks, with up to 20 having been killed along with hundreds of Afghans.47

The Herat uprising also set off a new round in the Afghan regime's internal power struggle. To assuage charges of weak performance in the military leadership, Taraki finally granted Watanjar his long-sought-after position as Minister of Defense.48 To placate Amin, Taraki conferred on him his own position of Prime Minister, retaining for himself the mantle of President of the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan. Watanjar's move to take over the Defense Ministry was a demonstrable exploitation of Amin's vulnerability in the aftermath of the failings of the army. It intensified the personal animosity that would continue to be a critical variable in the events playing out in Afghanistan.

For US intelligence analysts, the Herat conflict brought Afghanistan to the front burner of intelligence issues. By all reckoning, the Soviet client regime in Kabul was steadily losing ground to the insurgency. There were signs of a growing perception among the Afghan populace that Marxism—especially as represented by the Taraki-Amin regime—was anti-Islam, and this was believed likely to continue to erode the morale of the Afghan army. The intelligence question was whether Moscow could accept the overthrow of the communist regime by a Muslim rebellion being supported by the US ally Pakistan. How far was Moscow prepared to go to try to prevent it? Would the USSR commit its own combat forces to do so?

Shortly after the uprising in Herat, intelligence revealed unusual activity in two Soviet motorized rifle divisions (MRDs)49 garrisoned within about 10 kilometers of the Afghan border in what was known as the Turkestan Military District of the USSR. One was the 5th Guards Motorized Rifle Division at Kushka, near the main road in Afghanistan leading to Herat. Components of this division were leaving their garrisons and moving toward the border in convoys of tanks, trucks and personnel carriers, with various support elements. The other active division, the 108^th MRD located at Termez near the main highway toward Kabul, was assembling convoys. Intelligence assessments interpreted these activities as training exercises.50

Both of these were divisions of a category normally maintained at very low manpower levels, from about 10 percent to, at the very most, 30 percent of their prescribed combat strength of 12,500 troops per division. The training observed was highly unusual for these particular units, which in the past had been essentially dormant; some analysts argued that it was virtually unprecedented. Both divisions clearly had received an infusion of personnel from at least a short-term reservist call-up, although it did not appear that they had been brought to full combat strength. Thus some analysts argued (in internal debates) that while the observed activity may have been only contingency preparations, it did seem to indicate that the contingency was being taken very seriously.51

Other, smaller Soviet units were also seen deployed near the Afghan border. High levels of activity and vehicle movement were also detected at the garrisons of two Soviet airborne regiments in this same Soviet military district bordering Afghanistan. All together, at full strength, these forces being readied would have made up an intervention force of some 30,000 combat troops.

Although these activities bore the print of contingency preparations for a move into Afghanistan, CIA's intelligence assessments concluded that:

Less than a month later, a delegation of Soviet "political generals" arrived in Kabul. Intelligence analysts presumed that its purpose was to assess the political-military situation and the capabilities and especially the loyalty of army components around the country in the wake of the Herat uprising. Intelligence reporting pointed out that the head of this delegation—General Yepishev, chief of the Main Political Administration of the Soviet Ministry of Defense—had rarely traveled outside the Soviet-East European military alliance. When he had done so in the past, it had been to bolster troubled communist regimes with political and administrative advice and offers of military assistance. US intelligence agencies learned that, upon his arrival in Kabul, General Yepishev warned the Afghan leaders that Moscow's aid for combating the insurgency was not open-ended, and that it was up to the Afghans to improve their own effectiveness. Upon returning to Moscow a week later, Yepishev was said to have reported to his superiors that the "poor ideological outlook" (read "weak commitment to the Communist cause") among Afghan Army officers was a major problem. The Soviets subsequently stepped up their political indoctrination efforts both within the Afghan Army and in the population at large.53

In May and June, the level of insurgency continued to grow in eastern and northeastern Afghanistan, and incidents began to occur in the vicinity of Kabul. The performance of the Afghan Army continued to decline, and the effectiveness of the guerrilla units continued to grow. By June 1979, according to estimates by the US Embassy, the regime controlled—at most—only half the country.54

The Soviets responded to the deteriorating situation by shipping more weapons to the Afghan Army and Air Force, providing not only additional tanks, artillery and small arms, but also fighter aircraft, helicopter gunships and transports. Soviet military transport aircraft delivering aid operated regularly in and out of Bagram air base just north of Kabul. At least 2,500 Soviet military advisors reportedly were in Afghanistan by the end of June along with some 2,000 civilian advisers. There were reports that additional military advisors were being assigned to Afghan units engaging in combat, and that some Soviet military personnel were piloting helicopters in ground strikes and operating tanks in combat.55

Continued erosion of the Afghan regime's control, coupled with the increasing Soviet involvement, led intelligence analysts again to review the factors that might lead to outright Soviet military intervention. One possibility raised was that the Soviets might resort to such a course if they became convinced that the ouster of the Afghan regime by the insurgents could lead to an arc of militant Islamic anticommunist states on the USSR's southern border that would threaten stability in the Soviet Central Asian republics. Some analysts also pointed out that the loss of Afghanistan, after a major Soviet commitment, would be seen as a blow to the prestige and image so highly valued by the Soviet leadership.

On balance, however, intelligence assessments at the time continued to portray the insertion of Soviet combat forces as unlikely, although it was not ruled out. The main factors seen as weighing against it were both military and political. Mountainous terrain and limited—and vulnerable—ground transportation routes in Afghanistan would compound the military difficulties inherent in confronting guerrilla forces, according to intelligence assessments. Moscow also was seen as loath to absorb the high political costs of quashing the prospects for ratification of the SALT-II arms limitation treaty. Moreover, invading Afghanistan would be certain to provoke a backlash in other Muslim countries. In line with this judgment, a senior Soviet political counselor in Kabul, Vasily Safronchuk, told the US chargé on 24 June that the USSR had no intention of sending combat troops to Afghanistan. He pointed to the harm such a move would do to the SALT-II Treaty, and to the USSR's political position worldwide.56

Moscow Looks for a New Team

As the situation in Afghanistan worsened during the summer of 1979, US intelligence received numerous indications that the Soviets were seeking alternatives to the Taraki-Amin regime. Soviet officials made no effort to hide their displeasure with their inability to coerce the regime into pulling back from the extreme social and economic measures that were inflaming tribal and Islamic groups. In conversations with US Embassy officials and other members of the international diplomatic corps in Kabul, Safronchuk made it clear that Moscow was looking for a way to replace Taraki and Amin—especially Amin. According to various accounts, Safronchuk said the Soviets were frustrated by their inability to persuade the Afghan regime to create a coalition that might win stronger support by bringing representatives of diverse political constituencies into the government. Other Soviet officials took the same line.

In mid-July, the East German ambassador in Kabul told US diplomats that the Soviets' desire to replace the Afghan regime was such that they were willing to use force if necessary. Other sources said Moscow was planning a takeover by military officers opposed to Amin. There were several reports that exiled members of the Parcham faction in East Europe were claiming that the Soviets had promised to return them to power. Intelligence analysts viewed the "military takeover" option as the more likely, believing that Moscow would have no reason to expect the base of support for a Karmal government to be any broader than that of the Taraki-Amin faction.57

The same stories appeared in the press. A New York Times article on 2 August said the Soviets were seeking an alternative to the Taraki-Amin regime, and apparently were focusing on the military as a source for a government takeover. The Times article said Amin was considered a "zealous revolutionary" who was the real power in Afghanistan and who continued to push his inflammatory reform policies despite Soviet urging to proceed more cautiously. The high visibility being given to this Soviet outlook led the US Embassy in Kabul to posit in July that Moscow was engaged in a calculated effort to soften reaction to the growing Soviet military presence and to mitigate reaction if a regime turnover ultimately was achieved. Another purpose not mentioned in this Embassy report may have been to step up pressures on Taraki and Amin to moderate their revolutionary policies.58

Whatever the reason for the high noise level, Taraki and Amin clearly got the word that the Soviets were out to replace them. In late July, US intelligence analysts described a shakeup in the Afghan cabinet as a move by Taraki and Amin to preempt a feared Soviet-sponsored takeover by alienated military officers. Amin reclaimed the post of Defense Minister, a move that intelligence analysts described as probably designed to improve his vantage point for spotting and heading off any coup from within the military. This interpretation also appeared in the Western press. According to intelligence analysts, Watanjar was "reported to have figured in the plan" for installing a new government, and was sent back to the Interior Ministry, deepening his antagonism toward Amin.59

The Confrontation Intensifies

Meanwhile, at the beginning of July, the Soviets crossed a new threshold with their first known movement of a combat unit into Afghanistan: a battalion of airborne troops deployed at the Bagram air base near Kabul. Bagram already had essentially become the main Soviet operational base in Afghanistan, with Soviet military air transports shuttling in and out with supplies of weapons and military equipment. Intelligence analysts concluded that the combat troops were sent to Bagram to provide security for the air transport units, and that there was no intent to commit them to combat operations elsewhere in Afghanistan.60

Insurgent attacks grew steadily throughout July, and the Afghanistan territory under government control continued to shrink. Mutinies were spreading throughout the Army, and insurgent raids were capturing Army munitions. Roads were being cut and Afghan Army units were increasingly dependent on supply by air, including transport helicopters. The regime still owned the cities, but the insurgents owned the countryside. The press quoted US officials who said the civil war in Afghanistan had reduced the government's control to about 25 percent of the country. And, as already demonstrated in Herat, even the control of major cities depended on the regime's ability to deploy defense and rescue missions from the central power center of Kabul. Afghan Army units, with the benefit of Soviet-supplied weapons, could still make such movements through the countryside, but could not hold significant tracts of territory outside the main cities.

This deterioration was continuing despite the increased involvement of Soviet personnel in guiding Afghan combat operations and logistics. The role of the Soviets reportedly was expanding from advice to active participation in a wide variety of operations with regimental and battalion sized units. New intelligence information reinforced earlier reports that Soviet helicopter pilots with Afghan copilots (or vice versa) were flying the strikes on insurgent positions. There were additional reports of Soviets operating tanks in combat missions.61

Increasing Soviet military involvement in Afghanistan and widespread resistance to the Soviet-supported regime—combined with Moscow's rebuffs when Washington warned about jeopardizing US-Soviet relations— prompted an initial Presidential authorization (officially called a "finding") for covert support to the Afghan insurgency. The covert aid helped with propaganda activities in support of the insurgents' cause, and provided medical assistance and other non-military supplies. The aid was channeled through "third countries," mainly Pakistan. National Security Advisor Brzezinski also proposed to the President that the US make a more public expression of "sympathy" for the Afghan "independence" forces. He also raised with the President, in a 23 July discussion, the prospect that the Soviets might try to unseat the current government, whose tactics were proving counterproductive to Moscow's aims. The President directed that something be done to put a public spotlight on the issue.62

One apparent result of this was a speech by Brzezinski on 2 August that The New York Times reported in an article headlined "US Indirectly Pressing Russians to Halt Afghanistan Intervention." Brzezinski's speech—describing US "prudence" with regard to Iran and declaring that others were expected to "abstain from intervention and from efforts to impose alien doctrines on a deeply religious and nationally conscious people"—did not explicitly mention the Soviet Union or Afghanistan. The article said, however, that a "US official" had made clear "privately" that the speech was specifically directed at the threat of Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, where the pro-Soviet government was near collapse in the face of widespread Islamic opposition and tribal rebellion. The article also described "Western intelligence reports" of "several hundred ... armed Soviet advisors around an airfield [Bagram] north of Kabul," and said that "Mr. Brzezinski's statement was evidently intended as a warning against deeper [Soviet] involvement."63

Three days later, on 5 August, a mutiny erupted in an Afghan garrison at Bala Hissar, on the outskirts of Kabul. A group of officers seized control of the garrison command center, put together a formation of tanks and armored troop carriers, and set off for the presidential palace in Kabul. The move was crushed within a matter of hours by vastly superior loyalist Afghan Army forces employing tanks and helicopter gunships.

The US Embassy described this event as among the most serious challenges yet encountered by the Afghan government. Although the regime showed it still had the strength to defend its fortress cities, the mutiny bared one of the regime's fundamental weaknesses: the deteriorating loyalty of regular army units. In the Embassy's view, this foreshadowed growing problems for the Afghan regime and its Soviet mentors. Western press accounts described the mutiny as the most serious clash since the ouster of Daoud sixteen months earlier. The press also reported that, although the regime had fairly quickly put down the revolt, the US Government was sufficiently concerned over the situation in Kabul that it began reducing the number of personnel at its Embassy there.64

Within the US Intelligence Community, an internal memorandum submitted to the National Intelligence Officer for Warning 65 offered the view that the latest mutiny increased the prospect for direct Soviet military intervention. It pointed out that earlier intelligence assessments had already concluded that the Afghan regime had been driven into a fortress defense posture. The Afghan Army constituted the wall of this fortress, and the Bala Hissar mutiny showed that there were significant cracks in the wall. The Soviets were now faced with the possibility that the army to which they were providing assistance might come apart. The memo said this was forcing the Soviets to examine options and costs for taking over the major burden of the counterinsurgency by deploying their own forces rather than accepting the consequences of an insurgency takeover in Kabul.

Soviet Reactions—US Interpretations

This view was reinforced when, on 17 August, a top-level Soviet military delegation of 13 generals and six colonels arrived in Kabul. Unlike the group of officers sent to Kabul in April after the Herat uprising, this delegation was not made up of "political generals" concerned with "ideological outlook." It was headed by the Deputy Chief of the Soviet General Staff and Commander of the Soviet Ground Forces General I. G. Pavlovsky, and was composed of officers responsible for planning and directing military operations. The fact that this delegation was dispatched less than two weeks after the Bala Hissar uprising led intelligence assessments to report that its mission was probably to conduct a close-up examination of the military situation and operational conditions in the aftermath of the rebellion. And the rank and composition of the delegation also led intelligence analysts to suggest Moscow was contemplating a major decision on the level and form of field-level military support it was willing to give to the Taraki regime.66 (Some analysts could not help attaching significance to the fact that Pavlovsky had led Soviet Army units into Czechoslovakia in August of 1968.)

At about the time of the Bala Hissar mutiny, US intelligence analysts had concluded that the Soviets had essentially given up on their efforts to replace Taraki and Amin. Having been unsuccessful in their attempts to create an Afghan coalition that would offer anything better, the Soviets appeared to have decided to focus on the aid and advisors needed to help the existing regime survive. If the Soviets were to make such an investment, however, they presumably needed some assurance that the Afghan Army could muster the cohesion and commitment to take the offensive against the insurgency. And in view of the uncertainty about this, some analysts presumed that part of the Pavlovsky delegation's mission was to evaluate the operational feasibility of committing Soviet military forces to the task of crushing the insurrection.67

Nonetheless, a week after the delegation had arrived in Kabul, CIA reported that the majority of its analysts "continue to feel that the deteriorating situation does not presage an escalation of Soviet military involvement in the form of a direct combat role."68

US Embassy assessments from Kabul in early September expressed similar views. It reported that one "possible" purpose of the Pavlovsky mission was to lay the groundwork for Soviet military intervention, in the event Moscow decided that it was necessary. An Embassy cable concluded that "at some point the hemorrhaging of Khalq military manpower [through death, desertion and defection] will require the USSR to make a decision whether to commit its own combat units." The cable pointed out that "there were not enough Afghan tank crews to man the large number of tanks being delivered by the USSR," and that at some point the Taraki-Amin regime might feel compelled to ask for assistance from Soviet troops.69

The Embassy also reported that many diplomats in Kabul did not rule out the possibility that Moscow might feel compelled to send in troops to save the revolution. These officials believed that, in such an event, the initial involvement would be limited—perhaps to a special airborne force to protect Soviet housing installations—but that, once there, the troop commitment probably would expand. Others diplomats believed the Soviets would withhold combat support in the belief they could "do business with almost any successor regime." The Embassy's own view was that "The time has not yet arrived for a Khalq plea for help—nor is there yet any solid evidence that the USSR is poising itself for armed intervention. Undoubtedly, the USSR has...been making its contingency plans and preparations."70

A somewhat more somber and less equivocal account appeared in The New York Times on 6 September. Citing "diplomatic sources," it said the Soviets' inability to find a political solution was moving them toward direct military intervention. The article described the growing number of Soviet military personnel already in the country, their "takeover" of Bagram air base, the heavy traffic of military transport aircraft there, and the reports of Soviet advisors participating in combat operations. The Soviets were said to recognize that military intervention would have severe implications for relations with the US, India, Iran and other Islamic countries. Nevertheless, the article quoted one "foreign expert" as saying that "If you accept the premise that the Russians cannot let Afghanistan go, and if you also realize that the Afghan institutions can no longer hope to contain the insurrections, the only possible conclusion is that the Soviets come in forcefully."71

Meanwhile, in the last week of August, US intelligence agencies were again seeing activity in some of the same Soviet combat forces opposite the northern border of Afghanistan that had been active in March. The 5th Guards Motorized Rifle Division at Kushka had again moved components out of garrison. Some of its subordinate units—including a battalion of tanks, an antiaircraft artillery battalion, a mortar battery, and groups of trucks—had been moved to a nearby rail yard. Intelligence assessments said the movements appeared to be connected to a field training exercise, again with some apparent reservist participation.72

Components of the 105th Guards Airborne Division also were again detected in what appeared to be preparations for air movement. (Unlike the motorized rifle divisions, airborne divisions based in the USSR were maintained at or near full manning levels.) The airborne unit activities seemed to involve training in specific techniques for loading equipment on a new and more advanced military transport aircraft (the IL-76) than the model (AN-12) normally used by this airborne division. This prompted the first intelligence assessment suggesting that the Soviets might be preparing to commit airborne troops to Afghanistan. The assessment said the likely purpose of such an operation would be to defend Kabul in the event of a sudden, drastic deterioration that threatened to overwhelm the Afghan capital (for example, an operation along the lines postulated by some diplomatic representatives in Kabul).73

The majority view in the US Intelligence Community continued to rate the chances of a major movement of Soviet forces into Afghanistan as unlikely, but some analysts pressed for a more active examination of alternatives for direct military action. They pointed to the number of Soviet military advisors, their increased involvement in combat and logistic support operations, the Pavlovsky delegation and the activities seen in Soviet units bordering Afghanistan as signs that Moscow had not yet set a limit on its commitment.74

An Alert Memorandum on 14 September from Director of Central Intelligence Stansfield Turner to the President and other senior US officials, reflecting this concern, warned that "The Soviet leaders may be on the threshold of a decision to commit their own forces to prevent the collapse of the regime and to protect their sizable stakes in Afghanistan." This memorandum also said, however, that Moscow was sensitive to the potentially open-ended military and political costs that could result from such a venture. Therefore, if the Soviets ultimately did increase their military role they were likely to do so only incrementally—raising the number of military advisors, expanding involvement in combat operations, and possibly bringing in small units to provide security in key cities. The Alert Memorandum nonetheless acknowledged that, even if the commitment initially was limited to incremental steps, the Soviets would risk amplifying their stake in the ultimate outcome, making it harder to resist further increasing their military commitment if their initial steps did not produce the results they sought.75

Another Duel in the Palace

The same day this Alert Memorandum was sent to US policy officials, a new leadership crisis occurred in Kabul. On the evening of 14 September (mid-day in Washington) Kabul radio announced the dismissal of four top government officials—Minister of the Interior Watanjar, Minister of Communications Ghulabzoy, Minister of Tribal Affairs Mazdoorjar, and Chief of Intelligence (the AGCA, which included the secret police) Sarwari. The radio announcement said the dismissals had been at Amin's recommendation and with Taraki's approval. The US Embassy in Kabul reported that shortly before the dismissals had been announced, troops and armored vehicles had surrounded the presidential palace and begun to occupy key positions in the capital. (These military components were from the 4 th Afghan Army Armored Corps, which had carried out similar functions in the coup against Daoud a year and a half earlier.) Gunfire had been heard in the palace area.76

Two days later, on 16 September, Kabul radio announced that an "extraordinary meeting" of the PDPA Central Committee had been held and that Taraki had "requested that he be relieved of his party and government leadership positions due to health reasons and physical incapacity." The announcement said that Amin had been appointed to replace Taraki as the new party general secretary. The top government body, the "Revolutionary Council," had also met that day, according to the radio broadcast, also "approving" Taraki's "request" to be relieved of the Presidency and appointing Amin as his successor.77

In the following days, US intelligence again detected heightened activity in Soviet combat forces across the border from Afghanistan. A regiment of the 105^th Guards Airborne Division had once more been moved into convoy formation, apparently being readied for deployment. Armored troop carriers and field artillery normally kept in covered storage were again positioned for loading aboard transport aircraft. Partial mobilization also appeared to be taking place in a ground force motorized rifle division—the 58th located at Kizyl Arvat, west of Kushka—that was not one of those seen engaging in such activity in March. This raised to three the number of such divisions in this region seen mobilizing in recent months. Two airborne divisions located farther from the Afghan border—the 104th in the Transcaucasus and the 98th in Odessa—also appeared to be preparing to deploy. The activity in all these forces would continue until the beginning of October, at which time all would return to their garrisons.78

On 19 September, the State Department included in its press briefing a statement that the US had detected "increased activity" in Soviet military units near the Afghan border. The statement said that while the purpose of this activity could not be confirmed, the US "wanted to reiterate [its] opposition to any intervention in Afghan internal affairs."79 On the same day, National Security Advisor Brzezinski informed the President that he believed a Soviet invasion was becoming more probable. A day later, officials from various US agencies met to examine plans for dealing with this potential development, and Brzezinski asked the DCI to prepare an intelligence appraisal "of Soviet involvement in Afghanistan to date, so that we can differentiate between creeping involvement and direct invasion."80

Meanwhile, information from diverse sources was providing a basic outline of the events that had brought about the sudden leadership change in the Afghan regime.81 A few days before the shootout at the presidential palace, Taraki—returning from a conference in Havana—had stopped off for discussions in Moscow. Upon Taraki's return to Kabul, Amin demanded that four officials whom he accused of plotting his ouster be summarily dismissed. (He reportedly had been tipped off by conspirators of his own.) Taraki sternly rebuffed this demand, but Amin defiantly dismissed the four officials. Taraki reacted by summoning Amin to a meeting at the presidential palace on 14 September. (There would be later reports that the Soviet ambassador played a role in arranging this meeting and persuading Amin to attend.) When Amin entered the palace and began to mount the stairs to Taraki's suite, one or more of the palace security guards—reportedly acting under instructions from one of the dismissed plotters—tried to shoot him. Amin survived because of the effort of the chief of the palace security force, a secret Amin supporter who was killed in the shooting (and later extolled as a hero). Amin escaped, and immediately launched his military move to take power.

Uncertainty surrounded the question of a Soviet role. US intelligence analysts tentatively concluded that Amin's action "may have been a preemptive move to forestall a Soviet plot to have Taraki remove him." The various conflicting reports received through diplomatic and other channels included allegations that Taraki had discussed the plan during his stopover in Moscow, and that an Amin sympathizer who was in Taraki's travel delegation got wind of it and warned Amin. These stories varied as to whether the scheme originated with the Afghan plotters and was supported by the Soviets, or was pushed on Taraki by Moscow. The US Embassy in Kabul, for its part, was skeptical that the plot had been discussed in Moscow.

Taraki's whereabouts in the immediate aftermath of the announcement of his ouster were initially unknown. Stories circulated that he had been injured, if not killed, in the shooting at the presidential palace on 14 September. The Embassy subsequently learned that he was alive but being held prisoner at the presidential palace. In the ensuing weeks there would be reports that three of the plotters had escaped (Defense Minister Watanjar, intelligence chief Sawari, and Minister of Tribal Affairs Ghulabzoy) and were hiding at the Soviet mission compound in Kabul, although the US embassy again expressed skepticism about the validity of such stories. (The fourth plotter, Minister of Communications Mazdoorjar, was known to have been captured and placed under house arrest.)82

As murky as the picture was, there was one point on which reports were virtually unanimous, and that was that Moscow was not happy with the outcome. Western news media pointed out that Amin had been a principal obstacle to Soviet efforts to find a political solution to the turmoil in Afghanistan. The Intelligence Community concluded that the Soviets probably believed Amin's coup had narrowed the regime's base of support and made the counterinsurgency task even more difficult. An Interagency Intelligence Memorandum disseminated on 28 September, prepared in response to Brzezinski's request a week earlier, said that "Moscow probably views the situation as even more unstable...[and] may fear that this coup might fragment the Afghan Army and lead to a breakdown of control in Kabul." It said that "The threat raised by the Muslim insurgency to the survival of the Marxist government in Afghanistan appears to be more serious now than at any time since the government assumed power in April 1978."83

1) Increased equipment and advisors, with advisors allowed to participate more extensively in combat and combat air support and in ferrying men and material within Afghanistan; 2) Limited intervention of combat and combat service support units, including attack helicopter units and logistic support and maintenance components to enhance Afghan "combat reach and effectiveness;" 3) Limited intervention with Soviet combat units to provide security for Kabul and key cities and critical points, and perhaps to operate selectively in combat operations alongside Afghan Army units to stiffen their resolve.85

To do anything beyond securing Kabul and a few other key cities or critical points, the interagency assessment gave the Soviets only the second category of military options—committing massive numbers of ground forces in a potentially open-ended operation.

As a practical matter, the three courses of action postulated under the first category were not alternatives, but gradations of escalating military involvement, and the choice was how far to go and how fast. All of these moves were designed to help the Afghan Army defeat the insurgent forces, and all of them relied on the Afghan Army taking the main role in nationwide military operations. Thus the linchpin of Moscow's willingness and ability to undertake one or more of these steps was, according to intelligence analysts, its assessment of the loyalty and cohesion of the Afghan Army.86

Analysts also believed that, even for limited combat support options, the Soviets would need to move cautiously lest they alienate rather than bolster the Afghan forces they still were counting on to play the major combat role. For this reason, even if the Soviets decided to introduce limited combat forces, they were expected to do so incrementally, beginning with a few battalions and working up to an airborne division or two at the most. The 105th Guards Airborne Division—seen in preparatory activities during previous upheavals in Afghanistan, and with a full-strength troop complement of 7,900—was judged to be the most likely force to be brought in.87

One postulated exception that might cause the Soviets to move more rapidly would be a backlash to the Amin coup that provoked severe fighting in the capital. In such a situation, according to the intelligence assessment, the Soviets probably were prepared to deploy one or more airborne divisions to Kabul and vicinity to protect Soviets already there as well as to maintain a pro-Soviet regime. (Again, the preparations of the 105th Guards Airborne Division would certainly have supported such a view.) The intelligence community analysis said that such a deployment would not be intended for use in fighting the Muslim insurgency but acknowledged that, once there, Soviet units could get drawn into the fighting.88

If the Afghan Army came apart, according to this analysis, Moscow would confront the prospect that preserving the current Afghan regime would mean taking the lead role in combating the insurgency—what the assessment described as "massive" Soviet military intervention. Soviet ground force units moving into Afghanistan would meet armed opposition not only from the insurgents but from defecting Afghan Army forces.

The Interagency Intelligence Memorandum described such an undertaking by the Soviets as a "multidivisional operation" requiring more than the four ground force divisions and one airborne division (the 105^th ) based in the Turkestan Military District. It noted that some additional divisions could be drawn from the nearby Central Asian Military District opposite the Xinjiang Province of China, but said the Soviets probably would be reluctant to weaken their position there. "An operation of this magnitude would therefore require the re-deployment of forces—and their supporting elements—from western and central [USSR] military districts, in addition to those near the Soviet-Afghan border," according to the assessment.89

The memorandum said Moscow had seemed prepared before the Amin coup to offer some combat help well short of the major intervention that the assessment defined as a "multidivision ground force operation." Given the uncertainty immediately following the coup, any such moves probably had been deferred, according to the memorandum, until the Soviets were satisfied that Amin would consolidate his position. But as soon as Moscow felt assured he had done so, according to intelligence analysts, the Soviet leaders' desire to avoid facing an all-or-nothing choice would cause them to begin increasing their combat support, up to what the memorandum characterized as a "sprinkling" of Soviet combat units.

If, in fact, the Afghan Army did come apart, and Moscow confronted a situation where only large-scale intervention by Soviet troops would save the regime, the intelligence analysis concluded that Soviet leaders were more likely to abandon the Khalq regime than to be willing to incur the costs of invasion. Their first choice obviously would be to find some viable leftist alternative to Amin, but if no such faction appeared, according to the analysis, "the Soviets would promote installation of a moderate regime willing to deal with them." Intelligence analysts acknowledged that abandoning a communist regime Moscow had so demonstrably sponsored would be seen by many Soviet leaders as damaging to the USSR. The Soviets could deflect this to some extent by standing behind their policy and blaming the Afghan communists for not following Moscow's guidance.

By comparison, according to the intelligence analysis, the price of an invasion would include:

Approaching the Boiling Point

On 10 October, Kabul radio announced that Taraki had died the previous day of a "serious illness," and that his remains had immediately been buried. In Washington it was generally believed he had in fact been fatally wounded during the palace shootout and probably had died well before the official announcement.91

Less than a week later, an entire infantry division of the Afghan Army garrisoned at Rishkor, about nine miles southwest of Kabul, mutinied and launched an attack toward Kabul. Several days of intense combat ensued before the mutiny finally was put down. In addressing the critical importance of the Afghan Army's loyalty in determining Soviet actions, the intelligence appraisal disseminated at the end of September had pointed out that "with four major mutinies in the past seven months, its continued allegiance is suspect."92 The "frequency ratio" was now up to five in eight.

According to intelligence received at the time, the mutiny seemed especially alarming to the Soviets and "a number of major steps were taken shortly thereafter."93 Once again, as had been the case in every crisis in Afghanistan since the Herat uprising in March, the Soviet 105^th Guards Airborne Division at Fergana—the military unit the recent Interagency Intelligence Memorandum had described as most likely to be deployed to Kabul if Moscow urgently sought to beef-up security there—was seen getting ready to move.

Heightened activity also was detected again in the same three divisions: the 5^th Motorized Rifle Division at Kushka; the 108^th at Termez; and the 58^th that Kizyl Arvat that had been periodically engaging in field deployments and unusual training and mobilization rehearsals in the preceeding months.94

Intelligence reporting described the alerting of the airborne division at Fergana as probably linked to the latest Afghan mutiny and Moscow's concern for its personnel in Kabul. The activity of the three other Soviet ground force divisions was said to be "possibly" related to the events in Afghanistan, although—as a retrospective intelligence evaluation put it—"this linkage was not made strongly."95

The progressive weakness of the Afghan Army was becoming increasingly apparent at the same time insurgent attacks were growing in size and frequency. The insurgents had begun to focus particularly on cutting supply lines to cities and military bases. The Afghan regime was forced to provide armored convoys for movements along major roads linking Kabul and the other major cities, and to increase its reliance on aerial supply of its major army garrisons. US government analysts were publicly quoted as saying that, while the Afghan Army controlled Kabul and a handful of major cities, insurgents operated with impunity in about half of the country.96

Offensive operations by the Afghan Army succeeded only when Soviet military personnel were heavily involved both in combat and combat support at all echelons down to the front-line units. A Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment disseminated in late October said that "without Soviet support the [Afghan] Army would have collapsed a long time ago." DIA said the Soviets were "the backbone of Afghanistan's logistics system...they maintain all technical equipment and provide massive quantities of supplies and other equipment."97

Reports continued to circulate in diplomatic and intelligence channels as well as the news media that Moscow was dissatisfied with Amin. Soviet officials were making it known on the diplomatic circuit that, while the USSR would continue to provide weapons, equipment and advisors to the existing regime, Moscow was trying to come up with an alternative leader—most likely one not associated with the present Afghan government. Intelligence sources reported that Amin was aware of this—Moscow had, after all, tried to get rid of him in September—and was making gestures, albeit not very convincing ones, to moderate some of the policies the Soviets considered counterproductive. These minimal gestures were undermined by the murders and disappearances attributed to Amin's efforts to eliminate his known or suspected rivals and thus prevent Moscow from assembling an alternative regime.98

By late November, it had become clear to intelligence analysts that the Soviet 105^th Airborne Division, put on alert at the time of the latest mutiny in mid-October, had remained at heightened readiness. Also, the Soviet motorized rifle divisions in the area were again engaging in activity that, although below a level indicating imminent deployment, suggested efforts to raise their overall readiness. This mainly was field training at the battalion and regimental level, apparently including activated reservists. By the last week of November, at least two of these divisions—the 5^th at Kushka and the 108^th at Termez—appeared to be mobilizing at least to a limited degree.99

The predominant intelligence view attributed these activities—particularly the readying of airborne units—to Moscow's concern for the safety of Soviet personnel in Kabul. By this time, however, the crisis ignited in Iran by the seizure of the US Embassy there was adding a new element of ambiguity to the analysts' interpretations of Soviet military activities in the region. This was especially so for the ground force motorized rifle divisions. Some intelligence reporting postulated that the apparent effort to improve their readiness was a manifestation of Moscow's unease over possible US reactions to the Iranian crisis.100

The Advance Echelon Deploys

On 29 November, senior Soviet Deputy Interior Minister Viktor Paputin, who carried the rank of general in the Soviet internal security forces, arrived in Kabul. Over the next few days he met with his counterparts in the Afghan internal security forces and with Amin. These meetings were reported by the Kabul radio station, but did not draw particular attention at the time.101

Also on 29 November and continuing for the next few days, Soviet military transport aircraft were detected flying into Kabul. Some of them remained parked at the Kabul airport, but reports from observers in Kabul indicated that a portion of the aircraft had apparently discharged whatever cargo or personnel they were carrying and quickly departed. The type of aircraft seen at Kabul, and other evidence, indicated that they probably had come from the western USSR, either flying directly or staging through Soviet bases north of Afghanistan.

The purpose of the flights was unclear. Whatever they brought had been expeditiously removed from the airport, and there were unconfirmed reports that some special Soviet troop units had been moved into the city.102 US intelligence officers in Kabul described an apparent infiltration of special Soviet troops into the city, and numerous reports from the field also indicated some covert operations seemed to be afoot. An on-the-spot assessment by the senior US intelligence officer in the field concluded that some Soviet military operation was being readied.

On 8 December, the intelligence community reported that a second Soviet airborne battalion had been brought to the airfield at Bagram, site of the main operating base for Moscow's military assistance mission. (As noted above, at least one airborne battalion had been based at Bagram for some months.)

The National Intelligence Daily ( NID ) and DIA's Defense Intelligence Notes ( DIN ) both stated that deployment of this additional airborne battalion to Bagram probably was intended to upgrade defenses at the air base in the face of the increasing insurgent threat. The battalion could also provide added security if Moscow was forced to evacuate its personnel from the country. This interpretation was consistent with the earlier assessments of the most likely purpose of any additional military units Moscow might insert into Afghanistan. The DIN added that the heightened preparations suggested "the threat is perceived in Moscow as greater than our reporting indicates...[and] demonstrates Moscow's resolve in pursuing its interests in Afghanistan despite obvious pitfalls and at a time when the Kremlin may consider the US to be preoccupied with events in Tehran."103

Two days later, intelligence revealed the arrival of what appeared to be a motorized rifle battalion, equipped with the usual complement of armored vehicles for transportation and for combat operations, as well as with field artillery and antiaircraft artillery. This represented a new level of Soviet military presence. The new unit clearly had been airlifted into Afghanistan during the preceding day or so.

The NID noted that the deployment could be "indicative of a decision by the Soviets to increase their forces substantially." DIA estimated that, in addition to security for Soviet operations at Bagram, the newly deployed combat units could be used for quick-reaction, limited-combat security missions elsewhere in Afghanistan, and to help evacuate Soviet personnel if the situation should require. DIA added, however, that

On 11 December, the National Intelligence Officer for Warning convened a group of senior analysts to address the question of whether the deployment of the motorized rifle battalion to Bagram signaled that the Soviets had "crossed a line" in their intentions to engage in military combat operations in Afghanistan. The clear majority of those participating in this meeting supported the view that already had been given in the daily intelligence: that the additional forces had been introduced to provide increased security, especially in the event of a potential need to evacuate Soviet personnel in a rapidly deteriorating situation. Their judgment was, therefore, that although the deployment significantly expanded the security forces, it did not yet foreshadow intentions to escalate Soviet engagement in the Afghan conflict itself. A small minority of the participants dissented, pointing out that the battalion included a full complement of anti-aircraft artillery. These analysts argued that it was difficult to conceive of any aircraft posing such a threat to Soviet troops in Afghanistan as to warrant including anti-aircraft weapons, with one exception—the Afghan Air Force. They believed this suggested that Mosocw might be contemplating an operation of sufficient magnitude to risk a reaction by at least parts of the Afghan military.105

In the next few days, the US Embassy in Kabul reported that observers there had seen what were believed to be soldiers of a Soviet combat battalion being stationed discreetly around the Afghan capital. This information seemed to confirm what some analysts believed was the most likely explanation for the mysterious Soviet military air transport flights into Kabul at the end of November. Their presumption was that these troops probably were from the "Spetznaz," Soviet military units roughly comparable to US Special Forces.106

By 15 December, intelligence disclosed that the Soviet 5^th Guards and 108^th motorized rifle divisions—the ones most frequently seen in heightened training and mobilization activity—had been brought to what appeared to be full strength, and that the 108^th was leaving its garrison. A buildup of transport and combat helicopters had been detected at Kokaty air base in the south of the USSR's Turkestan Military District, and other military transport aircraft were being marshaled at air bases in this area. A substantial buildup of tactical combat aircraft—fighters, fighter-bombers and light bombers—also was seen at Soviet airfields in the region, including at some airfields that normally did not serve as bases for such aircraft.107

That afternoon, a Saturday, a number of US intelligence community officials and analysts (including the author) were notified by telephone that the DCI, following discussions that day at the White House, had directed that a meeting be convened the following Monday (17 December) to prepare an alert memorandum on the implications of the increasing Soviet presence in Afghanistan. National Security Advisor Brzezinski already had sent a memorandum to the DCI earlier in the week informing him that the President— after reading intelligence reporting that a second Soviet airborne battalion had arrived at Bagram—wanted to publicize the information. In the memo, Brzezinski asked the DCI to provide by 14 December (Friday) text "sanitized" in a way that would permit it to be used publicly (i.e., in a way that would protect the sources of the information).108 By the time the DCI received Brzezinski's memo, however, the motorized rifle battalion already had arrived at Bagram. This discovery presumably figured in the discussions between Brzezinski and the DCI on 15 December, followed by the DCI's call for an alert memorandum laying out the implications.

Also on 15 December, the Secretary of State's special advisor on Soviet affairs, Marshal Schulman, called in the chargé from the Soviet Embassy (Soviet Ambassador Dobrynin had departed for the USSR a week earlier) and asked that Moscow provide an explanation for the sudden increase of its military presence in Afghanistan. A cable was also sent that day to the US Embassy in Moscow instructing the ambassador to put the same question directly to the Soviet Foreign Ministry.109

On Monday morning, 17 December, the Afghan situation was taken up at a meeting of senior national security officials initially called to address the Iran hostage crisis. (Participants included Vice President Walter Mondale, National Security Advisor Brzezinski, Secretary of Defense Harold Brown, Deputy Secretary of State Warren Christopher, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the DCI.) DCI Turner reported that the recent movement of new units to Afghanistan—including a third airborne battalion added to the Soviet forces at Bagram—raised the number of Soviet military personnel there from 3,500 to an estimated 5,300. He also pointed out that two Soviet military command posts had been created just north of the Afghan border, that two more divisions in the vicinity appeared to be on the move, and that a buildup of air assets was underway. According to the record of the meeting, the DCI said:

It was decided at the national security meeting that the US would explore with Pakistan and the United Kingdom the possibility of providing additional funds, weapons and communications to the Afghan rebels "to make it as expensive as possible for the Soviets to continue their efforts." The US also would increase worldwide propaganda relating to the Soviet activities, recommending to its European allies that they encourage more media attention to the Afghan situation and step up efforts "to cast the Soviets as opposing Muslim religious and nationalist expression." The participants in the meeting also concluded, however, that for now the US would continue to keep its diplomatic demarches to the Soviets in private channels "for the record," in the belief that "there was no benefit in going public at this time."111

By the time this meeting adjourned, the State Department had received a cable from US Ambassador Watson in Moscow reporting that "The Soviets did not respond to our request for an explanation of their deployments into Afghanistan. Their total presentation was essentially a rebuff." According to the ambassador, the Soviet deputy foreign minister had described as "inventions" the activities the US questioned, and asserted that affairs between the "sovereign states" of Afghanistan and the USSR were "solely their own business."112

Also on 17 December an event occurred in Kabul which, in the light of later developments, may have been of greater significance than was recognized at the time. An assassination attempt on Amin took place at his presidential palace residence. Once again he survived, although there were reports that he suffered a slight leg wound. His nephew, who was head of the intelligence service and Amin's top security aide, was seriously woun

Predicting the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan:
The Intelligence Community's Record

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